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Policy Brief:

Education

during COVID-

and beyond

A U G U S T 2 0 2 0

Executive summary

The COVID-19 pandemic has created the largest disruption of education systems in history, affecting nearly 1.6 billion learners in more than 190 countries and all conti- nents. Closures of schools and other learn- ing spaces have impacted 94 per cent of the world’s student population, up to 99 per cent in low and lower-middle income countries. The crisis is exacerbating pre-existing educa- tion disparities by reducing the opportunities for many of the most vulnerable children, youth, and adults – those living in poor or rural areas, girls, refugees, persons with disabilities and forcibly displaced persons – to continue their learning. Learning losses also threaten to extend beyond this generation and erase decades of progress, not least in support of girls and young women’s educational access and reten- tion. Some 23.8 million additional children and youth (from pre-primary to tertiary) may drop out or not have access to school next year due to the pandemic’s economic impact alone. Similarly, the education disruption has had, and will continue to have, substantial effects beyond education. Closures of educational institutions hamper the provision of essen- tial services to children and communities, including access to nutritious food, affect the ability of many parents to work, and increase risks of violence against women and girls. As fiscal pressures increase, and development assistance comes under strain, the financing of education could also face major challenges, exacerbating massive pre-COVID-19 education funding gaps. For low income countries and low- er-middle-income countries, for instance, that gap had reached a staggering $148 billion annu- ally and it could now increase by up to one-third. On the other hand, this crisis has stimulated innovation within the education sector. We have seen innovative approaches in support of edu- cation and training continuity: from radio and television to take-home packages. Distance learning solutions were developed thanks to quick responses by governments and partners all over the world supporting education conti- nuity, including the Global Education Coalition covened by UNESCO. We have also been reminded of the essential role of teachers and that governments and other key partners have an ongoing duty of care to education personnel. But these changes have also highlighted that the promising future of learning, and the accelerated changes in modes of delivering quality educa- tion, cannot be separated from the imperative of leaving no one behind. This is true for children and youth affected by a lack of resources or enabling environment to access learning. It is true for the teaching profession and their need for better training in new methods of educa- tion delivery, as well as support. Last but not least, this is true for the education community

system; ensure strong leadership and coordination; and enhance consultation and communication mechanisms.

> REIMAGINE EDUCATION AND ACCELERATE

CHANGE IN TEACHING AND LEARNING: The massive efforts made in a short time to respond to the shocks to education systems remind us that change is possible. We should seize the opportunity to find new ways to address the learning crisis and bring about a set of solutions previously considered difficult or impossible to implement. The following entry points could be to the fore of our efforts: focus on addressing learning losses and preventing dropouts, particularly of marginalized groups; offer skills for employability programmes; support the teaching profession and teachers’ readiness; expand the definition of the right to education to include connectivity; remove barriers to connectivity; strengthen data and monitoring of learning; strengthen the articulation and flexibility across levels and types of education and training.

I. Shocks and aftershocks

of the pandemic

THE WORLD OF EDUCATION

BEFORE COVID-

Before the pandemic, the world was already fac- ing formidable challenges in fulfilling the promise of education as a basic human right. Despite the near universal enrolment at early grades in most countries, an extraordinary number of children – more than 250 million – were out of school,^2 and nearly 800 million adults were illiterate.^3 Moreover, even for those in school, learning was far from guaranteed. Some 387 million or 56 per cent of primary school age children world- wide were estimated to lack basic reading skills.^4 From a financing point of view, the challenge was already daunting before COVID-19. The early 2020 estimate of the financing gap to reach Sustainable Development Goal 4 – quality education – in low and lower-middle-income countries was a staggering $148 billion annual- ly.^5 It is estimated that the COVID-19 crisis will increase this financing gap by up to one-third.^6 2 258 million in 2018, UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS), “Out-of-School Children and Youth”, available at http://uis.unesco.org/en/ topic/out-school-children-and-youth. 3 773 million according to most recent UIS data: http://uis.unesco.org/en/topic/literacy. 4 UIS 2017 Fact Sheet, available at http://uis.unesco.org/sites/default/files/documents/fs46-more-than-half-children-not-learn- ing-en-2017.pdf. 5 UNESCO (forthcoming): “The impact of Covid-19 on the cost of achieving SDG 4”, GEM Report Policy Paper 42. 6 Ibid. 7 United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). COVID-19 and human development: Assessing the crisis, envisioning the recovery. 2020 Human Development Perspectives , 2020, New York: UNDP, available at http://hdr.undp.org/en/hdp-covid.

SCHOOL CLOSURES AND

EDUCATION DISRUPTION

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused the larg- est disruption of education in history, hav- ing already had a near universal impact on learners and teachers around the world, from pre-primary to secondary schools, technical and vocational education and training (TVET) institutions, universities, adult learning, and skills development establishments. By mid- April 2020, 94 per cent of learners worldwide were affected by the pandemic, representing 1.58 billion children and youth, from pre-pri- mary to higher education, in 200 countries. The ability to respond to school closures changes dramatically with level of develop- ment: for instance, during the second quarter 2020, 86 per cent of children in primary edu- cation have been effectively out of school in countries with low human development – compared with just 20 per cent in countries with very high human development.^7

In Africa, particularly in the Sahel region, nationwide school closures due to COVID- came at a time when a very large number of schools had already been closed for several months because of severe insecurity, strikes, or climatic hazards. COVID-19 is worsening the situation of education in Sub-Saharan Africa where, prior to the pandemic, 47 per cent of the world’s 258 million out-of-school children live (30 per cent due to conflict and emergency).^8 In the most fragile education systems, this interruption of the school year will have a dis- proportionately negative impact on the most vulnerable pupils, those for whom the con- ditions for ensuring continuity of learning at home are limited. Their presence at home can also complicate the economic situation of par- ents, who must find solutions to provide care or compensate for the loss of school meals. There is growing concern that if these learners are not properly supported, they may never return to school.^9 This would further exacer- bate pre-existing disparities, and risk reversing progress on SDG 4 as well as other SDGs,^10 as well as aggravating the already existing learning crisis^11 and eroding the social and economic resilience of refugees and displaced persons.^12 8 UIS 2019 Fact Sheet no. 56, available at http://uis.unesco.org/sites/default/files/documents/new-methodology-shows-258-million-chil- dren-adolescents-and-youth-are-out-school.pdf. 9 A recent article from the Economist cites cases where following lockdowns and quarantine, young girls are being forced into marriage or getting pregnant, placing them at risk of never returning to school, available at https://www.economist.com/international/2020/07/18/ school-closures-in-poor-countries-could-be-devastating. 10 Coronavirus-related service disruptions threaten to reverse the decade-long progress made for children and preg- nant women in the fight against HIV. UNICEF, “Children, HIV and AIDS”, available at https://data.unicef.org/resources/ children-hiv-and-aids-how-will-progress-be-impacted-by-covid-19. 11 Before the pandemic, 258 million children and youth of primary- and secondary-school age were out of school, and low schooling quality meant many who were in school learned too little. World Bank, “The COVID-19 Pandemic: Shocks to education and policy responses”, available at https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/education/publication/ the-covid19-pandemic-shocks-to-education-and-policy-responses. 12 The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR), “Stepping Up – Refugee education in crisis”, 2019, available at https://www.unhcr.org/ steppingup. 13 UNICEF, “Childcare in a global crisis: the impact of COVID-19 on work and family life”, available at https://www.unicef-irc.org/arti- cle/2027-40-million-children-miss-out-on-early-education-in-critical-pre-school-year-due-to.html. 14 United Nations, “Policy Brief: The impact of COVID-19 on children”, available at https://unsdg.un.org/sites/default/files/2020- 04/160420_Covid_Children_Policy_Brief.pdf.

ALL LEVELS OF EDUCATION

AND TRAINING AFFECTED

The disruptions caused by COVID-19 to everyday life meant that as many as 40 million children worldwide have missed out on early childhood education in their critical pre-school year.^13 They thus missed a stimulating and enriching environment, learning opportunities, social inter- action and in some cases adequate nutrition. This is likely to compromise their longer-term healthy development, especially those children from poor and disadvantaged families.^14 In technical and vocational education and training systems, vulnerabilities including low levels of digitalization and long-standing structural weaknesses, have been brought to light by the crisis. Disruptions in work places made it difficult to implement apprenticeship schemes and work-based learning modes, key elements of a functional and market-re- sponsive technical and vocational system. In the higher education sub-sector, while online learning has generally taken place through recorded lectures and online plat- forms, some universities have postponed learning and teaching until further notice, due to the lack of information technology (IT) infrastructure for both students and teachers. Questions also remain about how to harmonize

semesters and academic calendars, as some programmes have been successfully imple- mented online, while others could not be.

AN EXACERBATION OF

DISPARITIES IN LEARNING

OPPORTUNITIES

An estimated 40 per cent of the poorest coun- tries failed to support learners at risk during the COVID-19 crisis,^15 and past experiences show that both education and gender ine- qualities tend to be neglected in responses to disease outbreaks.^16 Domestic chores, especially for girls, and the work required to run households or farms, can also prevent children from getting sufficient learning time. Children with disabilities who were already mar- ginalized before the outbreak are not always included in strategies of distance learning.^17 Refugee and forcibly displaced children are further marginalized and deprived of access to support services offered through schools, such as school meals and psy- chosocial support programmes. The most vulnerable learners are also among those who have poor digital skills and the least access to the hardware and connectiv- ity required for distance learning solutions implemented during school closures. In half 15 UNESCO, Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Report, 2020: Inclusion and education: all means all , 2020, available at https://unesdoc. unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000373718. 16 IIEP-UNESCO, “COVID-19 school closures: Why girls are more at risk”, available at http://www.iiep.unesco.org/en/ covid-19-school-closures-why-girls-are-more-risk-13406. 17 United Nations, “Policy Brief: The impact of COVID-19 on children”, available at https://unsdg.un.org/sites/default/files/2020- 04/160420_Covid_Children_Policy_Brief.pdf. 18 European Commission, “Educational inequalities in Europe and physical school closures during Covid-19”, available at https://ec.europa. eu/jrc/sites/jrcsh/files/fairness_pb2020_wave04_covid_education_jrc_i1_19jun2020.pdf. 19 These include Côte d’Ivoire, the Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Kiribati, Lesotho, Mauritania, and Sudan. 20 UNESCO, GEM Report, 2020. 21 UNICEF, “How involved are parents in their children’s learning? MICS6 data reveal critical insights”, available at https://blogs.unicef.org/ evidence-for-action/parental-involvement-childrens-learning. 22 Catherine Haeck and Pierre Lefebvre, Program for International Student Assessment (PISA), “Pandemic school closures may increase inequality in test scores”, Working Paper No. 20-03,June 2020, available at https://grch.esg.uqam.ca/wp-content/uploads/sites/82/ Haeck_Lefebvre_GRCH_WP20-03-5.pdf. of 21 European countries examined, Grade 4 pupils from lower socio-economic backgrounds were half as likely to have access to the inter- net as their more advantaged peers.^18 In 7 low income countries, less than 10 per cent of the poorest households have electricity.^19 Many learners in developing countries, especially the youngest and minority groups, are not fluent in the language of instruction.^20 Even when they could access content they could understand, living conditions, economic stress, and low edu- cation levels of parents, including digital skills, meant that many children did not benefit from the stable environment and the learning support needed to adapt to these new modes of instruc- tion. In most European countries, children from lower socio-economic backgrounds are more likely to lack reading opportunities, a quiet room, and parental support during school closure. In low income and upper-middle income countries alike, children in the poorest households receive significantly less help with their homework.^21 The learning loss, in the short and long term, is expected to be great. Researchers in Canada estimate that the socio-economic skills gap could increase by more than 30 per cent due to the pandemic.^22 The World Bank identifies three possible scenarios for the loss of learning (figure 3): a reduction in average learning levels for all students, a widening of the distribution of learning achievements due to highly unequal effects of the crisis on various populations, or

UNESCO estimates that 23.8 million additional children and youth (from pre-primary to tertiary) may drop out or not have access to school next year due to the pandemic’s economic impact alone.^27 The total number of children not return- ing to their education after the school closures is likely to be even greater. School closures make girls and young women more vulnerable to child marriage, early pregnancy, and gen- der-based violence – all of which decrease their likelihood of continuing their education.^28 With the combined effect of the pandem- ic’s worldwide economic impact and the school closures, the learning crisis could turn into a generational catastrophe.

A RIPPLE EFFECT

BEYOND EDUCATION

The education disruption will continue to have substantial effects, extending beyond education. Many of these have been laid out in previous policy briefs and include, for instance, food insecurity,^29 economic instabil- ity, and violence against women and girls. Closures of schools and other educational insti- tutions are hampering the provision of essential services to children and communities. The loss of school meals and other health and nutrition 27 UNESCO, “COVID-19 Education Response: How many students are at risk of not returning to school?” advocacy paper, June 2020. 28 Global Partnership for Education (GPE), “Opinion: Don’t let girls’ education be another casualty of the coronavirus”, 1 May 2020, available at https://www.globalpartnership.org/news/opinion-dont-let-girls-education-be-another-casualty-coronavirus. 29 The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that by the end of 2020 the number of people experiencing hunger will increase to 270 million, “Global Monitoring of School Meals During COVID-19 School Closures”, available at https://cdn.wfp.org/2020/ school-feeding-map. 30 Ibid. 31 Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLAC), “The social challenge in times of COVID-19”, available at https://repositorio.cepal. org/bitstream/handle/11362/45544/1/S2000324_en.pdf. 32 United Nations, “Policy Brief: The Impact of COVID-19 on Women”, April 2020, available at https://www.un.org/sites/un2.un.org/files/ policy_brief_on_covid_impact_on_women_9_apr_2020_updated.pdf; UNESCO, “Addressing the gender dimensions of school closures”, COVID-19 Education Response, Education Sector Issue Notes, Issue Note Nº 3.1 , available at https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/ pf0000373379. 33 Matt Krents and others, “Easing the COVID-19 burden on working parents”, BCG , 21 May 2020, available at https://www.bcg.com/ publications/2020/helping-working-parents-ease-the-burden-of-covid-19. services in the first months of the pandemic affected 370 million children in 195 countries,^30 increasing hunger and nutritional deficiencies for the most disadvantaged. Some countries, however, have been able to adapt and maintain school feeding programmes.^31 The disruption also concerns health and psychosocial ser- vices, since education institutions also serve as platforms for prevention, diagnosis, and counselling. As a result, vulnerable groups are experiencing both a loss of essential services and a lack of social protection mechanisms. As with previous pandemics, COVID-19 has shown that education institution closures rep- resent an increased risk for women and girls, as they are more vulnerable to multiple types of abuse, such as domestic violence, transac- tional sex, and early and forced marriages.^32 The closures have also affected the ability of many parents to work. A significant share of working parents rely on childcare and schools. In countries such as France, Germany, Italy, the UK, and USA, 60 per cent of parents have been unable to find alternative solutions for schools and day-care centres. A recent study highlights that women are bearing the greater share of additional time spent on childcare and household tasks.^33 Coupled with the present economic disruption, this will likely contribute to higher earning gaps,

thus widening gender inequality. Furthermore, studies project that working-hour losses will represent up to 400 million full-time jobs.^34 As parents who lose income make difficult choices, enrolment and girl’s education rates may decline, while child labour, recruitment, and exploitation rise. With the number of people in extreme poverty due to COVID-19 projected to increase between 71 and 100 million, attention 34 International Labour Organization (ILO), “ILO Monitor: COVID-19 and the world of work. Fifth edition”, 30 June 2020, available at https:// www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/@dgreports/@dcomm/documents/briefingnote/wcms_749399.pdf. 35 World Bank, “Projected poverty impacts of COVID-19”, available at https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/poverty/brief/ projected-poverty-impacts-of-COVID-19. should be paid to dropouts, as well as opportu- nity costs that are likely to affect parent’s deci- sions to support their children’s education.^35 School closures will have not only immedi- ate economic consequences, but long-last- ing effects. It is estimated that for the first time since its conception, the Human Development Index, of which the educa- tion dimension accounts for a third, will show a striking decline (figure 4).

FIGURE 4: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IS FACING AN UNPRECEDENTED HIT

SINCE THE CONCEPT WAS INTRODUCED IN 1990

( annual change in human development index )

1991 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Global financial crisis (2008–2009) -0. -0. -0. -0.

2020 Source: HDRO and simulations, available at http://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/covid-19_and_human_development_0.pdf.

methods have received a lot of attention. Student progress can be monitored with mobile phone surveys, tracking usage and performance statistics from learning platforms and apps, and implementing rapid learning assessments to identify learning gaps.^40 Every solution has its own challenge, notably in terms of equity. For certain sectors, distance learning came with distinct challenges. In the early-childhood sub-sector, some countries were able to put in place virtual kindergarten for children 3−6 years of age. Technical and vocational apprenticeship 40 UNICEF, “Putting the ‘learning’ back in remote learning”, June 2020, available at https://www.unicef.org/globalinsight/sites/unicef.org. globalinsight/files/2020-06/UNICEF-Global-Insight-remote-learning-issue-brief-2020.pdf. 41 .g. Brazil, Costa Rica, Kenya, Philippines, South Sudan. ILO, “TVET and skills development in the time of COVID-19”, 28 April 2020, availa- ble at https://gemreportunesco.wordpress.com/2020/04/28/tvet-and-skills-development-in-the-time-of-covid-19. 42 International Association of Universities, IAU Global Survey Report: The Impact of COVID-19 on higher education around the world , 2020, available at https://www.iau-aiu.net/IMG/pdf/iau_covid19_and_he_survey_report_final_may_2020.pdf. schemes and work-based learning centres were able to adapt in some countries.^41 In many higher education institutions, the move to distance learning has been an opportunity to expand flexible learning modalities, setting the stage for a sustained shift towards more online learning in this sub-sector in the future.^42 Sustainable solutions should build upon expe- riences with the widespread use of technology to ensure learning continuity during the pan- demic, including for the most marginalized. Several examples are described below.

FIGURE 5: COUNTRY CHOICE OF DISTANCE LEARNING DURING SCHOOL

CLOSURES WAS INFLUENCED BY EDUCATION LEVEL AND REGION ( percentage )

Pre-primary Primary Lower secondary Upper secondary 0 25 50 75 100 Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania Radio 0 25 50 75 100 Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania Television 0 25 50 75 100 Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania Paper-based learning 0 25 50 75 100 Africa Asia Europe Latin America and the Caribbean Oceania Online Source: UNESCO-UNICEF-World Bank joint database, May–June 2020, http://tcg.uis.unesco.org/survey-education-covid-school-closures.

EFFORTS MADE TO PROMOTE

INCLUSIVE LEARNING

As states adopt distance learning practices, students with disabilities are facing barriers due to the absence of necessary equipment, internet access, accessible materials, and the support that would allow them to follow online programmes. Some countries are developing tools and resources for learners with disabili- ties and their parents. This requires enhancing accessibility features, such as audio narration, sign language video, and simplified text, as well as provision of assistive devices and, in some cases, reasonable accommodation. To reach the 700 children with disabilities who are enrolled in Azraq and Za’atari refugee camps in Jordan, for example, one innova- tion has been the use of transparent masks, so that deaf children can still lip read.^43 The negative outcomes of prolonged closures disproportionately impact displaced children. This situation is especially precarious for girls, most at risk of permanently dropping out. In response, UNHCR has taken measures to ensure displaced children and youth can access dis- tance learning alternatives as part of national responses and offered health training for teach- ers and community awareness-raising activities on COVID-19, while upgrading water and sani- tation facilities in and around learning spaces. 43 UNESCO, GEM Report, 2020 , available at https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000373718. Janet Lennox and Wongani Taulo, “Three innovative responses to COVID-19 that have removed barriers to learning for the most marginalized”, World Education Blog , available at https://gemreportunesco.wordpress.com/2020/07/13/ three-innovative-responses-to-covid-19-that-have-removed-barriers-to-learning-for-the-most-marginalised. 44 WFP, “Global monitoring of school meals during COVID-19 school closures”, available at https://cdn.wfp.org/2020/school-feeding-map. More than 70 countries have adapted their school feeding programmes to continue supporting children during school closures. Nearly 50 countries are providing take-home rations to children and their families in various forms, including through daily meal delivery and pre-packaged monthly rations. Twenty- two countries have opted to replace the meals with vouchers or cash that families can use to buy food or other essential items. Some 6.9 million learners in 45 low income coun- tries have been reached since the onset of the crisis with take-home rations by govern- ments with the support of the UN system.^44

SUPPORTS FOR

TEACHERS’ NEEDS

From the onset of the pandemic, teachers were immediately tasked with implementing distance learning modalities, often without sufficient guidance, training, or resources. As figure 6 indicates, this occurred at every level of edu- cation. In many contexts, teacher professional development has moved online or been dissem- inated via telephone and video applications, but marginalized teachers may have missed out on such support. Web-based class meetings and messaging applications have become useful tools and new ways of communicating with their learners and the education community.

meet the needs of their students.^47 Without this, the strain can lead to burnout, resulting in high rates of absenteeism, and can even lead some teachers to leave their jobs, under- mining efforts to build school resilience.^48 COVID-19 has had varying impacts on the employment and salaries. Recent data sug- gest that only a minority of countries did not pay statutory teachers.^49 However, fur- loughing and delays in salary payments were more common.^50 In the public sector, teach- ers on temporary contracts were especially affected, as contracts were not renewed and those paid by the hour were out of work. 47 INEE, “Supporting teachers in crisis contexts during COVID-19”, April 2020, available at https://inee.org/system/files/resources/ COVID-19%20Webinar%20Series%20-%20Webinar%205.pdf. 48 UNESCO, “Supporting teachers and education personnel during times of crisis”, available at https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/ pf0000373338. 49 UNESCO/ILO, “Supporting teachers in back-to-school efforts: guidance for policy-makers”, available at https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ ark:/48223/pf0000373479. 50 Education International, “COVID-19 and Education: How Education Unions are Responding, Survey Report”, available at https://issuu. com/educationinternational/docs/2020_covid19_survey_report_eng_final. 51 Ibid. 52 UNESCO, GEM Report, 2020 , available at https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000373718. “Why non-state education requires support in the current pandemic”, World Education Blog , available at https://gemreportunesco.wordpress.com/2020/05/13/ why-non-state-education-requires-support-in-the-current-pandemic. In low-income countries in particular, where par- ents stopped paying fees or teachers have been unable to teach remotely, teachers lost their livelihoods. A survey by Education International^51 revealed that, among 93 teacher unions from 67 countries, nearly two-thirds reported that education workers in private institutions were significantly affected, with teachers on tempo- rary contracts and support personnel were most affected (figure 7). Refugee teachers are often not part of the national education system and also were vulnerable to the cessation of salaries and job losses while schools were not in session. Failure of non-state schools, either now or in the future, would leave public education systems to absorb high numbers of additional students.^52

FIGURE 7: SCHOOL CLOSURE HAD LARGE IMPACT ON EDUCATION

WORKFORCE REMUNERATION AND EMPLOYMENT ( percentage )

0 20 40 60 Full-time teachers on permanent contracts Part-time teachers on permanent contracts Full-time teachers on temporary contracts Education support personnel Part-time teachers on temporary contracts Other (includes higher education, ECE workers, substitute teachers and others) Source: Education International, “COVID-19 and Education: How Education Unions are Responding, Survey Report”, available at https://issuu.com/educationinternational/docs/2020_covid19_survey_report_eng_final.

Non-payment of teacher salaries not only poses a problem for individual, family, and community well-being, but also hinders the delivery of quality education. In the short term, many teachers may need to turn to alternative sources of income and will be unable to sup- port pupils in distance learning. In the long term, schools may face teacher shortages due to attrition. The crisis has been a reminder of the essential role of teachers and that govern- ments and other key partners have an ongo- ing duty of care to education personnel.

NO SINGLE SCHEDULE FOR

REOPENING OF EDUCATIONAL

INSTITUTIONS

As countries began to see a “flattening of the curve” of new cases of COVID-19 among their population, many governments began to loosen restrictions in an effort to stabilize their econo- mies, including through the reopening of schools, while others have been more cautious and maintained closures, fearing a “second wave”. As of mid-July 2020, over one billion learners are still affected, representing 61 per cent of the world’s total enrolment. 53 Some countries have opened schools and colleges, only to close them again after a resurgence of the virus. The logistical challenges related to ensuring distance educational continuity during pro- longed closures are substantial. Protracted closures threaten the implementation of the academic calendar and of examinations, and 53 UNESCO, “Education: From disruption to recovery”, available at https://en.unesco.org/covid19/educationresponse. 54 Science , “School openings across globe suggest ways to keep coronavirus at bay, despite outbreaks”, available at https://www.science mag.org/news/2020/07/school-openings-across-globe-suggest-ways-keep-coronavirus-bay-despite-outbreaks. 55 UNESCO-UNICEF-World Bank Joint Survey, May–June 2020, available at http://tcg.uis.unesco.org/ survey-education-covid-school-closures. make it next-to-impossible to put remedial pro- grammes in place. Assessing distance learn- ing further complicated the picture, as noted above. Finally, there are risks to the well-being and protection of students (providing school meals, protecting children from abuse and vio- lence), there is a need to address the well-be- ing and health concerns of teachers, and to provide them with remote support, including through teacher training on online pedagogy. As indicated in figure 8, countries have started planning to reopen schools nationwide, either based on grade level and by prioritizing exam classes, or through localized openings in regions with fewer cases of the virus. However, given the continued virulence of the virus, the majority of countries surveyed in May–June 2020 had yet to decide on the reopening date. Successive closures and reopenings are likely to continue, as the virus continues to circulate glob- ally. Several countries are planning to implement a “hybrid” or blended model of education provi- sion. Other countries are significantly reducing class sizes or providing lessons outside, and in many countries institutions require that almost all students and their teachers wear masks.^54 Countries in the UNESCO-UNICEF-World Bank Joint Survey reported that they plan a number of changes upon reopening: 23 per cent of coun- tries plan to recruit more teachers; 23 per cent will increase class time; 64 per cent will intro- duce remedial programmes; 32 per cent will introduce accelerated learning programmes; and 62 per cent plan to adjust the scope of curriculum content that will be covered.^55

Preventing the learning crisis from becom- ing a generational catastrophe needs to be a top priority for world leaders and the entire education community. This is the best way, not just to protect the rights of millions of learners, but to drive economic progress, sus- tainable development and lasting peace. To date, a Global Education Coalition com- prised of United Nations agencies, interna- tional organizations, private sector entities and civil society representatives, mobilized by UNESCO, have been engaging actively to support national COVID-19 education responses.^56 A new campaign, entitled Save our Future, will help to expand global sup- port for action on education at this time.^57 In this regard, decision-makers are encouraged to pursue the following recommendations and actions. 56 For more information see https://en.unesco.org/covid19/educationresponse/globalcoalition. 57 For more information see www.SaveOurFuture.world. 58 UNESCO, UNICEF, WFP, World Bank, “Framework for reopening schools”, 2020, available at https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/ pf0000373348 and “Reopening schools: How to get education back on track after COVID-19”, 2020, available at http://www.iiep.unesco. org/en/reopening-schools-how-get-education-back-track-after-covid-19-13424. See also Global Education Cluster, “Safe back to school: a practitioner’s guide”, 2020, available at https://educationcluster.app.box.com/v/Safeback2schoolGuide.

A. SUPPRESS TRANSMISSION

OF THE VIRUS AND

PLAN THOROUGHLY FOR

SCHOOLS REOPENING

The single most significant step that countries can take to hasten the reopening of schools and education institutions is to suppress transmission of the virus to control national or local outbreaks. Once they have done so, to deal with complex challenge of reopen- ing, they should be guided by the parameters set out below and should conduct a thor- ough consultative preparatory process.

> ENSURE THE SAFETY OF ALL: The UN and

the education community have developed guidance to help countries through the timing, conditions, and processes for reopening education institutions.^58 A key condition to reopening is being able to ensure a safe return to physical premises, while maintaining physical distancing and implementing public health measures, such as the use of masks and frequent handwashing. Such conditions may be more difficult in contexts

III. Policy recommendations

with overcrowded classes and areas without basic infrastructure and services and will require additional investment.

> PLAN FOR INCLUSIVE REOPENING: The

needs of the most marginalized children should be included in reopening strategies and adequate health measures need to be provided for students with special needs. Conducting assessments to estimate learning gaps and prepare remedial or accelerated learning programmes is essential at the time of reopening.

> LISTEN TO THE VOICES OF ALL CONCERNED:

Given the role that parents, caretakers, and teachers have played since the onset of the crisis, an essential part of the decision- making process is consultation and joint planning for reopening with communities and education stakeholders. A lack of clearly communicated and predictable planning can lead to a loss of teachers to other forms of employment, and to more children entering the labour market, decreasing the chances that they will return to learning.

> COORDINATE WITH KEY ACTORS, INCLUDING

THE HEALTH COMMUNITY: Measures to mitigate the risks of transmitting COVID- 19 will be likely be needed in the medium term, so it will be important to reflect on the impact of various reopening strategies, by using whatever information is available and by learning from other countries. Working with health officials in planning reopening is recommended, particularly as scientific evidence continues to evolve. Coordination 59 Global growth is estimated at -4.9 per cent in 2020. International Monetary Fund (IMF), “World Economic Outlook Update, June 2020: A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery“, available at https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/ WEOUpdateJune2020. 60 Education Commission, “Background Paper: The Learning Generation: Domestic Tax and Education”, available at https://report.educa- tioncommission.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Domestic-Tax-and-Eduction.pdf. with other social policies to protect and promote inclusion of families that suffer under the crisis is equally important.

B. PROTECT EDUCATION

FINANCING AND

COORDINATE FOR IMPACT

The pandemic has pushed the world into the deepest global recession in living memory.^59 This will have lasting effects on economies and pub- lic finances. The consequences have been par- ticularly severe for low and lower-middle income countries. National authorities need to act to mitigate long-term consequences for children, despite constraints on public spending, with education interventions forming part of national COVID-19 stimulus packages alongside health, social protection and economy recovery initia- tives. The international community also needs to act to protect education financing. Increasing fiscal space, already prominent in the interna- tional agenda, especially for education, has become an inescapable issue. There are several mutually reinforcing entry points to get there:

> STRENGTHEN DOMESTIC RESOURCE

MOBILIZATION, PRESERVE SHARE FOR

EDUCATION AS TOP PRIORITY AND TACKLE

INEFFICIENCIES: As widening the tax base in countries with a large informal sector takes time, other measures (fighting tax avoidance and evasion, revising tax incentives and treaties, etc.) need to be explored without delay.^60 Indeed, education systems themselves share a direct responsibility to increase the fiscal space by improving the