Study with the several resources on Docsity
Earn points by helping other students or get them with a premium plan
Prepare for your exams
Study with the several resources on Docsity
Earn points to download
Earn points by helping other students or get them with a premium plan
Community
Ask the community for help and clear up your study doubts
Discover the best universities in your country according to Docsity users
Free resources
Download our free guides on studying techniques, anxiety management strategies, and thesis advice from Docsity tutors
An analysis of the vietnamese real estate industry in 2024, focusing on investment opportunities and challenges. It examines the performance of key sectors, including residential real estate, banking, insurance, and the stock market. The document also includes a comparison of three companies: bcm, vhm, and hdg, and discusses investment portfolio strategies.
Typology: Assignments
1 / 30
This page cannot be seen from the preview
Don't miss anything!
Trần Thị Phi Yến B2009028 90% Nguyễn Thanh Xuân B2009025 80% Đỗ Tuyết Anh B2011880 60% Quản Đức Tài B2009023 60%
ACKNOWLEDGMENT A small essay on the topic: Stock Analysis & Evaluation of the Real Estate Industry and Financial Industry majors in the Financial Investment subject is the result of the learning process, following knowledge in class and all the things searched and researched by group members with the dedicated teaching of Dr. Doan Thị Cam Van of the Department of Finance and Banking - who directly guided me in this subject. So, here the whole group would like to send our most sincere thanks to you! Thank you!
Growth of some economies Bảng : Tăng trưởng một số chỉ tiêu kinh tế thế giới theo IMF (%) (Nguồn: IMF) 2023 marks a new beauty startup phase for the US economy as growth rates are higher and anti-detection efforts show effective results. On average for the whole year, the US economy grows by 2.5%, significantly higher than 1.9% in 2022. The Japanese economy experiences a year of recovery with growth of 1.6% in 2023. The country's main growth driver comes from accumulated demand after the pandemic period, and the prosperity of the export market. automobile exports as well as improvements in the tourism industry. China's economy will have a significant recovery in 2023 with a growth rate of 5.2%, higher than 3.2% in 2022 when the "Zero Covid" policy is still in effect. However, it should be seen that this growth mainly comes from the low GDP level in 2022. The crisis in the real estate sector caused both real estate prices and sales to decline, and companies did not continue to deploy new projects due to increased financial burden. Bảng: Tình hình lạm phát giai đoạn 2021-2023 (%)
Positive signs for the US economy also come from inflation targets. Compared to the same period last year, inflation in December 2023 was only 3.4%, much lower than 6.5% in December 2022. This is the result of falling energy prices on the world market, while the FED continues to maintain the target federal funds rate at a high level and tighten credit conditions. Japan's inflation decreased from 4.3% at the beginning of the year to 2.8% in November
billion USD) surplus, driven by exports. ForeignDirect Investment (FDI) $15.6 billion FDI inflows remained robust, indicating confidence in Vietnam's economy. Consumer Confidence Index 110 Consumer confidence remained high, supporting domestic consumption. Business Confidence Index 115 Business sentiment remained positive, reflecting optimism in the economy. Stock Market Performance VN-Index +5.2% The stock market experienced healthy growth, attracting investor interest. Banking, insurance, stock market activities
1.2.1.3 Unemployment rate The labor force participation rate in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 68.9%, remaining stable and unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2022. The labor force participation rate for women is 62.7% and for men is 62.7%. Gender is 75.3%. The unemployment rate among the working age population in urban areas in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.72%. This means that a small portion of urban workers are unemployed during this period. 1.2.2 MARKET ANALYSIS Q1/
GDP Growth Rate 7.2% Vietnam's economy continued its robust growth momentum in Q1/2024. Inflation Rate (Year-on-Year) 4.0% Inflation saw a slight uptick but remained within manageable levels. Unemployment Rate 3.1% Unemployment remained low, indicating a stable labor market. Exchange Rate (USD to VND) 24,100 The exchange rate remained relatively stable, supporting business activities. Fiscal Deficit (as % of GDP) 4.5% The government continued fiscal stimulus efforts to sustain economic growth. Trade Balance (in billion USD) +4.2 Vietnam maintained a trade surplus, driven by strong export performance. ForeignDirect Investment (FDI) $17.3 billion FDI inflows increased, reflecting confidence in Vietnam's economy. Consumer Confidence Index 112 Consumer confidence remained high, bolstering domestic consumption. Business Confidence Index 118 Business sentiment remained positive, indicating optimism among enterprises. Stock Market Performance VN-Index +6.5% The stock market experienced significant growth, attracting investors.
Vietnam's economy is forecast to grow 6.5% in 2024, higher than the average of Southeast Asia. This will boost credit demand, thereby motivating banks' profits. NIM (Net Income Performance) improves: Deposit interest rates are on a downward trend while lending interest rates may be adjusted slightly upward, helping banks' NIMs improve. Banks are also promoting operational efficiency and reducing costs, thereby contributing to improving NIM. Attractive pricing: Compared to regional markets, Vietnamese bank stocks are being priced at attractive levels. This creates an opportunity for investors to buy bank stocks at reasonable prices and benefit from future growth potential. High dividend distribution: Many Vietnamese banks have a tradition of paying high dividends to shareholders. This helps investors obtain a stable passive income stream from their investment. CHAPTER 2: INDUSTRY ANALYSIS 2.1 ANALYSIS OF THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY 2.1.1 RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE: In the first quarter of 2024, although inflation increased slightly, in general, Vietnam's economy, consumption and tourism recorded good growth momentum. Accordingly, the total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in the first quarter of 2024 reached 1, trillion VND, a slight increase compared to the same period in 2023. Notably, international visitors to Vietnam reached 4.6 million turns, a sharp increase compared to the same period in 2023 (2.7 million turns). It is expected that production and business activities will recover after a difficult 2023. Of which, FDI capital in the first quarter reached 6.2 billion USD, although it decreased compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 but increased sharply compared to the first quarter.
Supply Situation The first two months of 2024 the market continues to be quiet in terms of supply but has gradually improved since March 2024 with a number of new projects in Ho Chi Minh City. In Hanoi, in the entire first quarter of 2024, the amount of new products offered for sale only came from a few projects and were mainly in the next sales launch phase, with no new projects. Developments of Main Segments Apartment in the opposite direction The real estate market in the first quarter of 2024 recorded opposite developments in the apartment type, which is also the type with the greatest attraction in the first quarter of the year. Specifically, the price of apartments for sale in Hanoi increased sharply, reaching nearly the level of Ho Chi Minh City when reaching an average of 46 million/m2 in early 2024, approaching the mark of 48 million VND/m2 in Ho Chi Minh City. Stable private house Compared to apartments and land, private houses are a type with a fairly stable level of search interest, even during the quietest periods of the market. Private houses worth 2-4 billion VND are the segment with the sharpest increase in interest due to meeting the needs of the majority of people. The price segment under 2 billion is the least volatile because of scarce supply.
momentum and investment attractiveness for the office rental and industrial park real estate segments. Third, the segment of residential real estate, luxury apartments and resort real estate: Experts and businesses all say that it is not surprising that the assessment of the recovery of this segment is less optimistic. than the remaining segments. The reason is that supply is in excess after a period of hot growth, people are not too interested in investing in these segments. Investment risks & Challenges The Vietnamese market still has many big challenges the real estate market has not been solved in the past year. It is a problem of long-term capital for real estate development and creation, bank bad debt issues, information and transparency issues in the market, administrative procedures, land and projects are still extremely complicated and time-consuming. There are also negative issues, group interests, and corruption in the land sector yet. There are fundamental changes that will be huge obstacles that will keep project development costs unchanged. Real estate is increasing day by day, the income gap and house prices are still out of reach for the majority of workers. 2.2 ANALYSIS OF THE BANKING INDUSTRY 2.2.1 FORECASTING Q1/24 BUSINESS RESULTS WITH TRACKING BANKS
AGR 9.2% -20.3% In the first quarter of 2024, AGR recorded operating revenue of more than 92 billion VND, an increase of 8% over the same period last year. BID 16.8% 23.4% Profit after tax in Q1/24 is forecast to increase sharply by 17% over the same period, mainly thanks to the reduction in credit risk provisioning costs. VIB -3.5% 19.8% Credit growth in Q1/24 reached 5% due to weak retail credit demand. Net interest margin will decrease by 10 basis points in Q1/24. Expenses doubled. The risk of deterioration in asset quality accompanied by pressure on provisioning remains high in 2024
In 6M2024, we believe that attracting credit will be achieved by reducing interest rates. In the current context of low credit demand, commercial banks will be pushed into a state of lacking provisioning buffers due to low interest income, which can cause bad debt to increase slightly by 10-20 basis points. For the whole year 2024, with expectations of positive business results, we believe that banks will increase provisioning and handling of bad debts to bring Non-performing loans to a level equivalent to the whole of 2023. Bad debt will still put pressure on profit growth in 2024 Non-performing Loans (NPL) across the industry had a significant improvement in Q4/ compared to the previous quarter, although still low compared to the 2020-2022 period. NPL at the end 2023 of 27 listed banks will reach 1.9%, down 30 basis points compared to peaked at 2.2% at the end of Q3/2023 but still increased 50 basis points compared to the end of Q3/2023. 2022 (reaching 1.4%). Total bad debt balance of the entire industry at the end of 2023 increased by 57.6% over the same period and decreased by 7.4% compared to the previous quarter. 2.2.2 SWOT ANALYSIS
· One of the oldest industries. · A leader in economic growth. · Financial support after a crisis. · Digital banking convenience. · Lack of worldwide coordination. · Old technology leads to vulnerabilities. · No access to rural areas. · Move into rural regions. · Offer more or lose customers. · The biggest threat of all: recessions. · Data breaches. · So much competition. 2.2.3 REASON Market value of shares The market value of a stock is the price of a stock at a certain time traded on the stock market. The supply and demand relationship of stocks is influenced by many economic, political and social factors, the most important of which is the company's market price and its profitability.
Becamex IDC Corporation received the title of Most Prestigious Industrial Real Estate Company in Vietnam for the 4th consecutive time after 2021, 2022 and 2023 were at the top of the rankings. Always ranked at the top of the ranking of 10 prestigious companies in the Real Estate industry, over the past time, with more than 30 years of experience in the field of industrial and urban infrastructure development, Becamex IDC has not only brought brought outstanding achievements in Binh Duong but also contributed greatly to the socio-economic development in many provinces and cities across the country according to the Government's orientation and the cooperation program between Binh Duong province and other provinces, become friends to duplicate Binh Duong's successful model. Furthermore, with the goal of attracting high value-added investment, Becamex is implementing a new generation industrial ecosystem with many models such as: Science and Technology Industrial Park; Business - Information Technology Park; Science Park. 3.1.1.2 SWOT ANALYSIS S W O T The Corporation always receives attention and direction from the Provincial Party Committee and Provincial People's Committee during its operations. The Corporation has an organizational structure and a key leadership team that has accumulated a lot of practical experience and many years of commitment to building the Corporation. The Corporation has a professional marketing team with representatives in Japan, Korea, Europe, America,... proactively approaching, building relationships, and working to collect information, Becamex IDC Joint Stock Corporation (HoSE: BCM) has more than 95% of its shares held by the People's Committee of Binh Duong province, so any changes in local leadership and other policy decisions will impact the business. Investments in affiliated companies such as Vietnam - Singapore Industrial Park Limited Joint Venture, Becamex Tokyu Co., Ltd., IJC, TDC, BCE, ... with a total investment capital of more than 15,564 billion VND help BCM earn a stable dividend income. annual fixed rate and extraordinary ability to divest the above investments when the market is favorable. · The scale is too large, making it difficult for BCM to control investments, combined with borrowing about 17,000 billion (about 35% of total capital) to finance ongoing industrial and residential projects, making BCM always in a state of cash flow shortage, while ineffective investment portfolio structure to reduce financial leverage has not received adequate attention from businesses.
capture requirements and learn the market 3.1.1.3 FINANCIAL RATIO Ratio Q4/2023 Q1/ P/E BCM 26.05 22. INDUSTRY 16.19 16. P/B BCM 3.40 2. INDUSTRY 1.47 1. P/S BCM 8.01 6. INDUSTRY 7.69 7. The data table is taken from the SSI stock exchange. Shows specific data of the business, the indexes are calculated based on the profit value of the business. Valuation ratios help investors clearly understand risks and compare the stability of a stock code. From the data in the table, it shows that BCM company's P/E index in the fourth quarter of 2023 is higher than the first quarter of 2024 (specifically 3.49) and the industry ratio increased insignificantly at 0.32. Next, the P/B index of the company and the industry both decreased in 2 quarters but not much. Instead, the P/S index of the BCM stock code in the first quarter of 2024 decreased quite a lot compared to the fourth quarter of 2023 (down 1.13) and the industry index increased slightly. Based on the P/E ratio, BCM stock is higher than the industry average, which says that the stock price is fairly valued. Accordingly, the industry's average P/B is lower than the company's P/B index, so BCM company is highly valued and its book value is also high. Ratio Q4/2023 Q1/ ROE BCM 12.91% 13.94% ROA BCM 4.76% 4.81%
-Inherited the ecosystem of Vingroup.
Based on the P/E ratio, VHM stock is lower than the industry average, which says that the stock price is fairly undervalued. Accordingly, the industry's average P/B is higher than the company's P/B index, so VHM company is undervalued and its book value is also low. Ratio Q4/2023 Q1/ ROE VHM 20.67% 20.67% ROA VHM 8.28% 8.28% The analysis based on the table suggests that there has been no variation in the ROA and ROE indexes in both quarters. 3.1.3 HDG _ Công ty Cổ phần Tập đoàn Hà Đô HDG is a prominent real estate development company in Vietnam, known for its large-scale residential and commercial projects. In 1990, Construction Enterprise was established under the Military Technical Institute - Ministry of National Defense. In 1992, the Construction Enterprise was transferred to an independent accounting unit and renamed Ha Do Construction Company. In 2004, Ha Do Company was converted into Ha Do Joint Stock Company. 2010 Officially listed on Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange (HOSE now HSX) with stock code HDG. Officially changed its name to Ha Do Group Joint Stock Company (Abbreviated as Ha Do Group) Some of HDG's notable projects include residential developments like Vinhomes Central Park in Ho Chi Minh City, Vinhomes Riverside in Hanoi, and Vinhomes Ocean Park in Haiphong. These projects offer a wide range of housing options, from luxury apartments and villas to affordable housing units, catering to various segments of the market. 3.1.3.1 MARKET In 2023, Ha Do Group reduced interest costs: with outstanding loans of more than VND 5,000 billion from energy projects, Ha Do Group determined that reducing costs will bring investment efficiency. Better investment, shortening payback time for Investors. Therefore, in 2023, the Information Company has focused on negotiating and coordinating with credit institutions to reduce interest costs, especially projects with large debt balances, debt restructuring towards significant benefits to the corporation. Typically, the Nhan Hac Hydropower project has a margin reduced to about 1.3%/year, the Dakmi 2 Hydropower project continues to decrease to 2.2%/year and a number of other loans are also being borrowed by organizations. Credit agencies consider adjusting interest rate margins.
