Availability Bias
The availability bias is the human tendency to think that examples of things that come readily to mind are
more representative than is the case.
One's identity is what one remembers, and our memories significantly impact our perception of the world.
What we end up remembering is influenced by factors such as the following:
Our foundational beliefs about the world, our expectations, the emotions a piece of information inspires in
us, the number of times we may be exposed to a piece of information, The source of a piece of
information.
How to Overcome Availability Bias?
#1. Always consider base rates when making judgments about probability.
The base rate of something is the average prevalence of it within a particular population. For example,
around 10% of the population is left-handed. If one had to guess the likelihood of a random person being
left-handed, one would be correct to say 1 in 10 in the absence of other relevant information. When
judging the probability of something, look at the base rate whenever possible.
#2. Focus on trends and patterns.
The mental model of regression to the mean teaches us that extreme events tend to be followed by more
moderate ones. Outlier events are often the result of luck and randomness. They are not necessarily
instructive. Whenever possible, base one's judgments on trends and patterns—the longer term, the better.
History is everything, even if outlier events are memorable.
#3. Take the time to think before making a judgment.
The whole point of heuristics is that they save the time and effort needed to parse a ton of information and
make a judgment. Nevertheless, as we always say, one cannot make a good decision without thinking.
There is no shortcut for that. If one makes a weighty decision, the only way to get around the availability
heuristic is to stop and go through the relevant information rather than assuming that whatever comes to
mind first is correct.
#4. Keep track of information one might need to use in a judgment far off in the future.
Do not rely on memory. Managers tend to base their evaluations more on the prior three months than the
nine months before that. It is much easier than remembering what happened over an entire year. Without
considering the overall trend, managers also give substantial weight to unusual one-off behavior, such as a
severe mistake or notable success. In this case, noting down observations on someone's performance
throughout the year would lead to a more accurate appraisal.
#5. Go back and revisit old information.
Even if one thinks one can recall everything necessary, it is a clever idea to go back and refresh one's
memory of relevant information before deciding.
