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Communlesre 8(1):5-
The challenge of the spiral-of-silence theory
Theoretical Implications and Empirical Evidences
Wolfgang Donsbach This article describes the stllte-of.the-art 01 Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann's theory of the dy- namics of public opinion processes called the " splral-of-sllenee-theory ". The theory comprises several single hypotheses which relate to different fields 01 social science. behavioral and attitudinal psychology, com- munication research and social theory. Its core assumption Is the hypothesis that in- dividuals have a tear of Isolating themselves In public situations and thus tend not to ex- claim their own opinions when they perceive the majority of their tellow citizens to hokt the
opposite point of vtew. Noelle-Neumann's apo.
proach has been discussed and crit icised by scholars from different nelds , Nevertheless, the empirical evidence up to now seems to under1lne that It has the potential to explain some of the verlance In individual behaviour and in the dynamics of public opinion pro.. ceases,
A Main theses and scholarly foundations The theory of the spiral of silence developed by Elisabeth Noelle- Neumann since the early seven· ties represents an anemptto describe the process and function d "public opinion- arte'N and at the same time to make ~ empirically verifiable. Within
the overall concept of public opinion the "spiral 01
silence" is simply a specific hypolhesis about the
macro-consequerces of processes a DJblic opin-
ion (see below): hCMeVer, the concept stands lor
the entire theory (1). The latter is essentially based
on findings from three areas d scholarship:
- Findings f rom the history of philosophy about
Ihe interpretation of DJblic opinion, historica!1y
speaking. 2. Social psychological fi ndings about
behaviOl in public situations. as wel l as 3. Findings
from communication researcn aboullhe role of the
mass media in perceptions of the distribution d
opinion in the social environment In methodolog·
~fgang Oonsbach is assistan director of the In- stitut fOr Publizistik al the Johannes Gutenberg Unillersity. Mainz.
ical terms, Noelle·Neumann's theory represents progress in survey research , in particular as an 0p-
portunity to test the effect of different stimuli ex·
perimer1ally by means 01 the split balld procedure
Noelle·Neumann's concept can be taken as a macro-theory, since it comprises connections be · t'Neen psychological and sociologica! variables from the theory of communication. The different hypotheses lor these three areas may be summa·
rised as 10110'.-'.'5:
- In the psychological area of behaVioural and attitudinal theory a) An essential motive for social behaviour is the
desire nd to isdate oneself from oneS social en--
virorment. This hypdhesis is based on experi-
mental findings by Asch and Milgram about
conformist behavior in groups (3), showing that
Figure 1: Dynamic model of public opinion according to the theory of the spiral of silence
Person A I
I
Person B
own opinion on
topic X I
.J no^ fear^ of^ isolation^ ~^ very^ real^ willingness^ ~,
to speak up
l
T (^) perception of what consonant
~I ~
I pthers think^ abou fear of isolation
topic X dissonant limited willingness
I perception of what current majority opinion
others think about I
view of future topic X
l'
direct perception ~media
of environment
point in time t 1
in a situation of group pressure people are will- .ing to go along w~h the majority even when this opinion is obviously wrong. However, for a long time, conformity was considered a result of imi- tation by learning or an expression of a "mass spirit". b) People have the ability to perceive the distribu- tion of opinion in their environment on different topics relatively exactly. Rather than being lim~ed to the perception of opinion in their reference group, this also includes the anonymous public. Noelle-Neumann refers to this ability as the 'quasi-statistical sense". c) So as to avoid isolation, people tend to keep silent about their own opinion, if they believe that current or future majority opinion is against them. Conversely, persons who believe major~ opinion is on their side tend also to show their convictions in public. d) When the time factor is included, a dynamic sit- uation results from the social psychological hypotheses described, with the (actual or ap- parent) majority group always appearing to be stronger in public and the (actual or apparent) minority group always appearing to be weaker than they really are. This results in a spiralling
6
I
I
I
I
point in time t 2
process, from which the theory derives its name. 2 In the area of communication research a) There are two different sources available to ob- serve the environment, direct observation of the social environment and indirect observation of the content of the mass media. While direct ob- servation essentially shows which views will serve to isolate one in public, media content mainly suggests how the majority thinks. b) In addition, the mass media have an 'articulation function" in this process, by expressing certain points of view and not expressing others. The articulation function comprises both content and form: Certain points of view are given preferen- tial treatment in the media and thus are more strongly represented and, at the same time, the means of expression are provided for these pOints of views, making it easier for people who take this position to express it than those who hold a different opinion and are not provided with this aid to articulation by the media. c) The effect of the mass media is especially strong in this process when media content is extreme- ly consonant. The opinion propagated seems especially strong and the lact of choice avail- able makes it impossible to devote selective at-
attitude involved must be areas which are in flux, where a change is occurring. In societies or so- cial periods in which no such change is occurring, the individual is familiar with the dominant norms and opinions and there is nothing to set a spirall- ing process in motion. 2. The opinions involved must have a clear moral dimension, so that the de- bate is not about the rationally right or wrong po- sition but about the morally good or bad position.
- The mass media must take an identifiable posi- tion in the process involved. Areas of opinion which involve political controversy, but in which the media do not speak out or barely report at all, are not subject to the laws described by Noelle-Neumann (12). Several of the objections to the theory expressed by the critics are ruled out when these initial con- ditions are taken into consideration, for example Noetzel's classification of the "spiral of silence" as a theory of rational political attitudes (13). This is exactly what the theory is not. The effect claimed by the theory is essentially based on the irrationa- lity and emotionality of perceiving and dealing with reality. The initial conditio(1s which are frequently misunderstood also include the role of the mass media in the process of.public opinion. Noelle- Neumann has repeatedly pOinted out that empiri- cal tests of her theory are essentially meaningless if the tenor of the media on the topic studied is not included (14). Because of the limited data avail- able, however, she herself has often published em- pirical data about the 'quasi-statistical-sense" and the willingness to speak up on a given topic with- out having content analyses on the same topic at her disposal (15). It is her belief, however, that con- clusions about the content of the mass media can be drawn from survey data: In Noelle-Neumann's thinking, the phenomenon of pluralistic ignorance, i.e. the majority being mistaken about the majority, and of a strong willingness on the part of the ac- tual minority to speak up while there is at the same time a "silent majority" , are empirical indicators for media content. The open design of the theory of the spiral of silence in pan-cultural and historical terms does not require media content as a factor of influence, since fear of isolation is defined as the most important stimulus to action. The resulting observation of the environment, which takes the form of functional be- haviour, needs only to include the media insofar as the technical opportunities presented by the mass media in modern societies open up com-
8
munication between individuals above and beyond complex social structures, and insofar as poliJically controversial topics have high news value for the media and thus are reported and commented on by them. It is thus only because of the historical conditions of western democracies that the variable of the mass media is an essential component of the theory (16).
o Theoretical criticism of the theory of the spiral of silence As was to be anticipated, the challenge which the theory of the spiral of silence in many respects represents to established social science, has result- ed in a number of critical debates, which the author of the theory considers helpful and neces- sary to the further development of her approach (17). If we omit general and superficial contribu- tions (18), the essays by Noetzel, Salmon/Kline and Glynn-Mcleod represent the most well-founded theoretical analyses. The criticism essentially fo- cuses on the following areas: 1 The importance of reference groups to fear of isolation, perceptions of the environment and the willingness to speak up as an alternative hypo- thesis to the influence of the anonymous public and the mass media claimed by Noelle- Neumann; 2 The importance of theories other than the avoidance of social isolation claimed by Noelle- Neumann in describing and interpreting social behaviour; 3 The dependence of the individual's overall fear of isolating himself in public by minority opin- ions, as claimed by Noelle-Neumann, on indivi- dual personality characteristics; 4 The conflict between theories of social percep- tion of the environment other than the 'quasi- statistical-sense" claimed by Noelle-Neumann, by means of which the individual is able to per- ceive his environment relatively precisely. 5 The conflict between the role of the mass media claimed by the theory of the spiral of silence in influencing social perceptions, attitudes and values and paradigms showing the media to have a weak influence or none at all or alterna- tively, stating that the media serve to preserve the social status quo. ad 1: Noelle-Neumann's theory has breathed new life into the concept of 'the public" as con- cerns communication research. "Public space" and the 'consciousness of the public"
to her represent situations in which our s0- cial nature is particular evident. Along with the mass. media, the anonymous public is a: source for perceptions of the environment and it is a potential authority putting sanc- tions on statements which may result in iso- lation from others. Some authors believe this hypothesis is contradicted by findings about the role of reference groups. One objection i~ that relations with relevant social groups are far more important than an anonymous public both as regards perceiving the en- vironment and as concerns opinion forma- tion. Even if the individual has the ability - disputed by some authors - to perceive the distribution of opinion in the anonymous so- cial environment, negative sanctions from this source could be countered by positive sanctions from reference groups which think the same (20). Early studies of the dominant influence of opinion leaders and social relations over that of the mass media initially seem to support this objection (21). Some authors also con- sider perceptions of the environment to be shaped by reference groups and deny the possibility of developing relatively precise no- tions of the distribution of opinion in "pub- lic" (22). These objections generally fail to consider, however, that opinion leaders and reference groups are both subject to the dy- namics of the climate of opinion and the mass media. Thus the effect opinion leaders and reference groups have. largely constitute the indirect effects of the media and the cli- mate of opinion. Noelle-Neumann's theory is based on the fear of isolation. This is a motive which ac- counts for constant observation of the en- vironment as well as for the willingness to speak up or .the tendency to keep silent de- pending upon what is perceived to be majo- rity or minority. Arguing against this b'asic theorem of the spiral of silence, theory critics point out that the individual's selfish interests Gannot generally be equated with conformity to the group or the community (23). The in- dividual acts in line with a cost-benefit calcu- lation, with positive sanctions to be anticipat- ed tallied up against negative sanctions and eventually resulting in conformist or non- conformist behaviour, depending on the sit-
uation (24). In addition, the objection is made that conformist behaviour may be accounted for by something other than the fear of iso- lation cited by Noelle-Neumann. Thus, for ex- ample, attraction to or identification with per- sons or groups may have the same effect (25). Finally, the converse objection is made that the individual may respond to fear of iso- latiOn in other ways, rather than by conformist behaviour which takes the form of ''silence''. E.g. Noetzel cites aggression as an alterna- tive mode of behaviour. ad 3: Salmon and Kline particularly emphasise the role of personality characteristics in beha- viour in social situations, denying the exis- tence of a general tendency to avoid being isolated from others. f>.s proof they introduce
Crutchfield's findings, according to which the
willingness to conform to the group depends
on intelligence, leadership qualities. authorita- rian attitudes, educational methods and other variables .(27).
ad 4: Several authors note a contradiction between
th~ 'quasi-statistical sense" claimed by Noene-Neumann and theories positing syste- matic distortions in social I perceptions. Studies on "pluralistics,ignorance" are cited, according to which the individual perceives his environment through the prism of his ONn opihion ("looking-glass theory'). The critics claim that the congruence between the ac- tual distribution of opinion and the estimates of the public are due to the aggregate data which Noelle-Neumann uses in her ana- I~ On the individual level, however, these perceptions would be biased towards the in- dividual's own opinion, these distortions be- ing counterbalanced in sum (28). ad 5: The role of the mass media in Noelle-Neu-
mann's concept is also criticised based on
findings from qther studies or on other theo- ries. The following arguments are empha- sised: people's bonds with their respective
reference group determines their media be-
haviour and even when they have been con-
ad 2: vinced by media content in the short run,
they will later adjust or adapt to group norms (29). Some critics also question whether the mass media play any part at all in transmit- ting ideas about majority and minority opin- ion. The fact that many people are mistaken about others; views ~uld refute Noelle-
9
constant (37). The test of the theory of the spiral of silence conducted by Glynn and Mcleod in the US also resulted in different perceptions of the en- vironment, depending on which media the respon- dents used (38). Recent findings comparing per- sons who watch a lot of television with those who do not, in fact showed a more far-reaching con- nec):ion between the use of the media and opinion on new and controversial political topics. Accord- ing to this, television viewers had a completely different impression of the legitimacy of a minister's decision in a pol~ical conflict than people who rare- ly or never watched television. This connection re- mained constant regardless of the party favoured by the respondent (39). Fidings from the Federal Republic of Germany and of Austria show that even the tendency to support a particular party was influenced by television exposure (40). There are many empirical findings which speak for Noelle-Neumann's hypothesis of the different "self-confidence" of opinion groups who believe that current or future majority opinion is on their side. D.G. Taylor determined that the ''certainty fac- tor" for winning as opposed to losing opinion groups is completely different (41). A representa- tive survey of the population of the state of North Carolina showed that one opinion group in a moral and political conflict (abortion) appeared much stronger than it really was at the time of the sur-
vey both according to the way the current distribu-
tion of opinion was viewed and according to the view of which opinion will dominate "in one year". This is the perception of both the supporters of this opinion and the supporters of the opposite posi- tion. In addition, this view is consistently found in different social groups, which makes it extremely unlikely that the perception of the environmental climate depends on bonds with reference groups only. These empirical findings again could not have been explained bo other theories (42). Findings about the respective willingness to speak up or to keep silent characterising persons who belong to the majority or minority group re- spectively are not as clear. There is a methodo- logical problem which makes it difficult to arrive at a clear picture: The 'train test" used by Noelle- Neumann for surveys in the Federal Republic (a quasi-public, anonymous communication situation which the respondents are familiar with and which can be simulated In the interview) and tlie test of "willingness to speak up" , of taking a public stand on your opinion, have to be adapted to Jhe cultural
situation when the hypothesis is tested' in other countries. This has not always occurred w~h a view
to the elements essential to the social pS)'Chological
forces whose effect is to be tested (43). Using as their indicator one's voting intention in a group of '1riends and acquaintances" , Glynn and Mcleod found weak confirmation (44); using as his indica- tor donating money for a cause in 'public, Taylor 'found confirmation in ten out of twelve cases (45); using as their indicator speaking at a student meet- ing, Wh~ney and Lashin found confirmation for two of their four topics (46); Donsbach and Stevenson found that the "winning opinion group" was more willing to state its opinion in a car pool when the persons involved thought they were in the (future) majority (48). If we take into consideration that some of the studies failed to regard important con- ditions of the theory or created unfavourable test s~uations based on their methodological operation- alisation, their choice of indicators or the kind of test persons chosen (49), the number of confirma- tions generally demonstrates the empirical success of the concept. Tests of the theory of the spiral of silence con- ducted in the state of North Carolina illustrate its potential for discrimin9nt validity. The debate about prohibiting abortion by means of an amendment to the American constitution was chosen as a morally loaded controversial topic. Two opinion groups were contrasted for purposes of additional analysis: Persons who support such an amend- ment and persons who reject it. The two groups were compared on the basis of their perception of what others think, their expectation as to which group would increase and which would decrease and their willingness to speak up. This analysis resulted in at least four findings which could not be explained by existing theories: 1. The support- ers of one view (supporters of the amendment) are far more inclined to believe that the majority is on their side now and will continue to be than the group of those taking the other view, although they defin~ely represent a minority at the time of the sur- vey. 2. Although there is a clear evidence of beha- viour in line with the looking-glass theory, because the supporters of one view most often believe that their view represents majority opinion, whether in relative or absolute terms, this "looking-glass" is broken again by a different strength with which this
pattern occurs in the two groups. 3. There are no
differences in perceptions of which view has more supporters in public by population strata and geo-
11
graphical regions, so that reference groups evi- dently do not have an infiuence here. 4. Supporters of the view which is obviously 'bn the winning side" in public opinion, who also subjectively consider themselves the future majority, are definitely more willing to speak up than supporters of the view which is obviously "losing" (50).
F Further developments in the theory of the spiral of silence Noelle-Neumann's theory of public opinion has met with great interest in international communi- cation research, especially in the United States. This is shown by the many empirical investigations which test the validity of the hypotheses in other cultures. Despite the many criticisms of the theory and of the interpretations of the empirical findings presented by the author, it is generally recognized that the theory represents real progress in inter- preting social psychological phenomena. Its deci- sive contribution to communication research con- sists of having focused attention on strong media effects again, thus replacing the traditional stimulus- response approaches, which as a rule are short- sighted. In his oveNiew of the status of media ef-
fects research, W. Schulz includes this approach
among the ''ecological and dynamic points of view" , which are mainly distinguished from other approaches by the inclusion of the 'time" factor. He states that there are thus essentially three time- related factors which this kind of effects research takes into consideration: The nature of communi- cation as a process, the long-term nature of media effects and the permanent interaction and inter- dependence of the factors involved (51). The theory's potential as a macro-approach, in- cluding a variety of variables and the time factor, makes it open to attack by critics. The problems of constructing investigative designs which do jus- tice to the theory's complex approach have already been pointed out. Future research connected with the theory of the spiral of silence should focus on two areas: 1. Clarification of the respective effect of the mass media, the anonymous public and ref- erence groups on the perceptions of how others think and on fear of isolation and 2. Clarification of the sociological and psychological components of the climate of opinion. The individual's bonds with reference groups, which compete with the mass media and the pub- lic as influential factors, have been one of the main points of criticism in the theoretical debate about Noelle-Neumann's theory. Yet there are to date no
12
investigations which consider these variables in re- lation to one another. The only instance of an at- tempt such as this is a study by Harm t'Hart in the Netherlands who found that when persons taking opposite viewpoints showed differing amounts of willingness to speak up, this tendency to keep si- lent was increased if their friends (reference group) took a different view from their onw (52). Carol Glynn's study is more specifically designed to address the problem described above. In a sur- vey she conducted in the American university town of Madison, Wisconsin, the sample was designed so as to represent clusters of neighbourhoods. lhe respondents were asked about their opinion on two problems at the nationa, federal, local and "neighbourhood" levels respectively. They were then asked to state what they thought their neigh- bours' thinking and that of the other inhabitants of Madison was on this subject. For four out of six topics (53) the respondents' judgement as to what the neighbours and the population of the city in general thought differed, that is, they made dis- tinctions between how others thought on controver- sial topics. In addition, it was shown that the view of the majority opinion held by neighbours differed from one neighbourhood to another, while the view of the majority opinion of the general city popula- tion did not. Finally, there was less variation in re- sponses to the question as to how others think than in responses to questions about ones own opinion. Overall, Glynn's findings suggest that people are definitely aboe to make destinctions between diffe- rent social environments when' conSidering how others think' (willingness to speak was not inves- tigated here as a consequence of how opinion in the environment is perceived) and that their per- ceptions represent more than mere "projections" of their own opinion or methodological artefacts based on random resonses (54). But this study does not provide a satisfactory operationalisation of the influences of reference groups either. A representative sUNey by Mohn in Syracuse, New York, determined the views the respondents developed of majority opinion and of media tenor. Here again there was evidence of the ability to differentiate in obseNing others: A distinction was made between which view dominated among others and which view dominated in the media on 'the political mood of the nation" and the death penalty. An analysis of the willingness to speak up, depending upon whether the ihdividual felt in the majority or in the minority compared with the tenor
Footnotes 1 The author has used the concept of the ''spiral of silence" herself as a title in several publica- tions, thus legitimising the terms used for the concept. See NOELLE-NEUMANN, E.: The Spiral of Silence. A Theory of Public Opinion. In: Journal of Communication vol. 24 (1974), No.2, pp. 43-51.as well as NOELLE-NEU- MANN, E.: Die Schweige-spirale. Offentliche Meinung - unsere soziale Haut. Munich/ Zurich 1980; (paperback edition: Frank- furt/Main, Vienna, Berlin 1982; engl. edition: The Spiral of Silence. Public Opinion - Our Socia) Skin. Chicago 1984). 2 On the role of the method in NOELLE-I\IEU- MANN's concept, see: Noelle-Neumann, E.: Die Schweigespirale, 1980, p. 52f, p. 65f. 3 See ASCH, E.: Effects of Group Pressure upon the Modification and Distortion of Judgements. In: Guetzkow, H. (ed.): Groups, Leadership, and Men. Pittsburgh 1951; MILGRAM, S.: Na- tionality and Conformity. In: Scientific American vol. 205 (1961), pp. 45-51. 4 The main theses of the theory of the spiral of silence listed here are taken from several pub- lications by NOELLE-NEUMANN. The various editions of her book ''The Spiral of Silence" con- tain detailed presentations of the theory (see footnote 1). 5 NOELLE-NEUMANN, E.: The Spiral of Silence. Public Opinion - Our Social Skin. Chicago 1984, p. 178. 6 As an example of a comprehensive approach, see HABERMAS, J.: Theorie des kom- munikativen Handelns. 2 vols., Frankfurt/Main
7 See LAMp, E.: Offentlichkeit als Bewusstsein in der alttestamentarischen Lebensordnung. Master's thesis Mainz 1983; RAFFEL, M.: Der Sch6pfer des Begriffs "Offentliche Meinung" : Michel de Montaigne. In: Publizistik vol. 29 (1984), pp. 49-62; ECKERT, W: Zur 6ffentlichen Meinung bei Machiavelli - Mensch, Masse und die Macht der Meinung. Master's thesis Mainz 1986. 8 In a synopsis, H. CHILDS found 50 different definitions of public opinion. See CHILDS, H.:
14
Public Opinion. Nature, Formation, and Role. Princeton 1965, pp. 14-26; in his article about public opinion.in the International Encyclope- dia of the Social Sciences, W PH. DAVISON came to the conclusion that there is no gener-
ally accepted definition of the concept: see Public Opinion. In: SILLS, D.L. (ed.): Interna- tional Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences, vol. XIII, New York, pp. 188-197; NOELLE-I\IEU- MANN was guided by the principle that the persistent existence of concepts represents an indicator for an as yet unsolved problem which the concept refers to. See KEPPLINGER, H.M.: Probleme der Begriffsbildung in den Sozialwis- senschaften: Begriff und Gegenstand Offent- liche Meinung. In: K61ner ZeitSchrift fUr Sozi- ologie und Sozialpsychologie vol. 29 (1977), pp. 233-260 as well as LUHMANN, I\J.: Offentliche Meinung. In: LUHMANN, N.: Aufsatze zur Sozi- ologie von Politik und Verwaltung. K61n, Opladen 1971, pp. 9-34. 9 On the question of the legitimacy of the power of journalists see also DONSBACH, W: Legitimationsprobleme des Journalismus. Freiburg, Munich 1982. 10 See NOELLE-NEUMANN, E.: Der Konflikt zwischen Wirkungsforschung und Journalis- mus. Ein wissenschaftsgeschichtliches Kapitel. In: Publizistik vol. 27 (1982), pp. 114-128. Engl.: The Effect of Media on Media Effects Research. In: Journal of Communication vol. 33 (1983), No.3, pp. 157-165. 11 NOELLE-NEUMANN's theory of the spiral of silence played a considerable role, for exam- ple, in the CDU design of its election campaign for the 1976 elections. On the criticism of the political utilisation of findings see NOETZEL, D.: Uber einige Bedeutungen des Erwerbs politisch-ideologischer Deutungsmuster. In: D. OBERND6RFER (ed.): Wahlerverhalten in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland. Berlin 1978, pp. 215-263; MERTEN, K.: Wirkungen der Medien im Wahlkampf. Fakten oder Artefakte? In: SCHULZ, W, K. SCH6NBACH (eds.): Massen- medien und Wahlen. Mass Media and Elec- tions: International Research Perspectives. Munich 1983, pp. 424-441; KATZ, E.: Publicity and Pluralistic Ignorance: Notes on the Spiral of Silence. In: BAIER, H., H.M. KEPPLINGER, K. REUMANN (eds.): Offentliche Meinung und sozialer Wandel - Public Opinion and Social Change. For Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann. Opladen 1981, pp. 28-38. 12 NOELLE-NEUMANN has specified these con- ditions in a variety of publications. The deci- sive factors, however, are discussed in her early
publications. See The Spiral of Silence, 1974; as the most recent publication on this topic, see I\lOELLE-I\lEUMANN, E.: The Spiral of Silence. A Response. In: SANDERS, K.R., L.L. KAID, D. NIMMO (eds.): Political Communication Yearbook 1984, Carbondale, Edwardsville 1985, pp. 66-94. 13 See NOETZEL, D.: 1978, p. 238. 14 See for example NOELLE-NEUMAt\IN, E.: 1985, p. 77ff. 15 See for example NOELLE-NEUMANN, E.: Tur- bulences in the Climate of Opinion. Methodo- logical Applications of the Spiral of Silence The- ory. In: Public Opinion Quarterly vol. 41 (1977), pp. 113-151. 16 NOELLE-t\IELIMANN emphasises that the pro- cess of public opinion she describes also ex- ists in totalitarian countries but that the individu- al elements are weighted differently there, based on" different concepts of civil rights and freedom of the press. On public opinion in totalitarian countries, see also WIRL, M.: Die Offentliche Meinung in den SD-Berichten Ober die Stimmung und Haltung der Bevblkerung im Dritten Reich. Master's thesis Mainz 1986. 17 See NOELLE-NELlMAI\lN, E.: 1985, p... 67. 18 See the contribution by MERTEN 1983, which is very polemical within a scholarly framework. A somewhat more moderate and productive contribution by the same author: Some Silence in the Spiral of Silence. In: SANDERS, K.R., L.L. KAID, D. NIMMO (eds.): 1985, pp. 31-42. 19 See NOETZEL:1979; SALMON, Ch. T, F.G. KLINE: The Spiral of Silence Ten Years Later. An Examination and Evaluation. In: SANDERS, K.R., L.L. KAID, 0. NIMMO (eds.) 1985, pp. 3-30; GLYt\IN, c.J., J.M. MCLEOD: Implica- tions of the Spiral of Silence Theory for Com- munication and Public Opinion. Research. In: SANDERS, K.R., L.L. KAID, 0. t\IIMMO (eds.): 1985, pp. 43-65. 20 See GLYNN, C.J., J.M. MCLEOD: 1985, p.61. There are frequent references to the experi- ment by ASCH, in which an additional person supporting the person in the experiment was able to neutralise conformity with the majority which made the wrong judgement, see ASCH, S.E.: 1951; KATZ, E.: 1981, p. 29 and SAL- MON, CI: 1985, p. 7f. 21 On this subject see especially the election study by LAZARDSFELD, P.F., B. BERELSON, H. GAUDET: The People's Choice, I\lew York
1948 and KATZ, E., P.F. LAZARSFELD: Per- sonal Influence. Glencoe 1955. 22 See NOETZEL, D.: 1979, p. 238, SALMON, CI, F.G. KLINE: 1985, p. 1 Of, and GLYNN, c.J., JM. MCLEOD: 1985, p. 51ff. 23 See KATZ, E.: 1981, p. 31. 24 See Taylor, o.G.: Pluralistic Ignorance and the Spiral of Silence: A Formal Analysis. In: Public Opinion Quarterly vol. 46 (1982), pp. 311-335, p.333. 25 SALMON and KLINE here base themselves on studies by NEWCOMB, Th. M.: An Ap- proach to the Study of Communicative Acts. In: Psychological Review vol. 60 (1953), pp. 393-404 and MCLEOD, J.M., S.H. CHAFFEE: Interpersonal Approaches to Communication Research. The bandwagon effect is also cited as an example of conformist behaviour not based on fear of isolation. See SALMON, Ch. T, FG. KUt\IE: 1985, p. 9f. 26 See NOETZEL, D.: 1979. 27 See CRUlCHFIELD, R.A.: Conformity and Character. In: Americal Psychologist vol. 10 (1955), pp. 191-198. 28 See FIELDS, J.M., H. SCHUMANN: Public Be- liefs About the Beliefs of the Public. In: Public Opinion Quarterly vol. 40 (1976), pp. 427-448; O'GORMAN, H.J., S.L. GARRY: Pluralistic Ig- norance - A Replication and Extension. In: Public Opinion Quarterly vol. 40 (1976), pp. 449-458; TAYLOR, D.G.: 1982; SALMON, CI, FG. KLINE: 1985, p. 13. 29 See GLYNN, c.J., J.M. MCLEOD: 1985, p. 65, SALMON, CI, FG. KLlt\IE: 1985, p. 65. 30 SALMON, C.T, FG. KLINE: 1985, p. 65. 31 See KATZ, E.: 1981, p. 31. 32 See her programmatic essay: "Return to the Concept of Powerful Mass Medi~". In: Studies of Broadcasting vol. 9 (1973), p. 67-112 which Denis MCQUAIL considers one of the turning points in the history of media effects research. See Mass Communication Theory. An Intro- duction. London 1983, p. 177f. 33 See DONSBACH, w., RL STEVENSON: Her- ausforderungen, Probleme und empirische Evidenzen der Theorie der Schweigespirale. In: Publizistik vol. 30 (1985). 34 This, for example, results in ASCH's experi- ments being introduced both by NOELLE- t\IELIMANN (in support of her theory) and by her critics. See SALMON, CI, FG. KLINE:
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