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Michael Porter’s Analysis, Indian Paint Industry, SEBI, investment portfolio, case study
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1. Perform Michael Porter analysis of the Indian Paints Industry.
(8 marks) < Answer >
2. Based on the information provided in the case, assess the performance of the Paints Industry during the year 2003-04.
(6 marks) < Answer >
3. a. Perform the SWOT Analysis of ICI India Ltd. using the information provided in the case.
b. Perform ROE analysis of ICI India Ltd. for last three years based on the Financial Statements given in Annexure I. c. Calculate Cash Earning Per Share (CEPS) of ICI India Ltd. during the last three years. Compare CEPS with EPS and comment on your results. (6 + 6 + 4 = 16 marks) < Answer >
4. The EPS of ICI India Ltd. is expected to increase by 7% for the next 3 years, and then remain steady at 10% for next two years, before reaching a constant growth rate of 5%. The payout ratio will be 25% during the first 3 years and it will rise to 35% for 4 th^ and 5 th^ year before achieving a constant payout of 20%. You are required to a. Determine the required rate of return of ICI India Ltd. shareholders using the Dividend Discount Model if the stock price as on 31 st^ March 2004 was Rs.180.50. b. Calculate the proportion of unsystematic risk to total risk for ICI stock, if the standard deviation of returns on the market is 18% and the standard deviation of returns on the ICI stock has been found to be 15%. The risk free rate is 5% and the market risk premium is 7%. (8 + 4 = 12 marks) < Answer > 5. Based on the Technical charts given in Annexure II, comment on whether the ICI stock should be bought, sold or held at points A, B, C, and D. (8 marks) < Answer >
Indian Paints Industry
The utility of paints has evolved from a decorative use to a surface protection use. Also, known as surface coatings, paints can be classified on the basis of end use, solvent system and solid content.
a. End Use classification: Under this heading, paints can be classified as decorative/ architectural paints and industrial paints. As the names suggest, decorative paints are mainly used for household and construction purposes while industrial paints are used as coatings for industrial products. Main types of decorative paints are enamels, acrylic emulsions, distempers and exteriors and primary types of industrial paints are marine paints, anti corrosive metal coatings, etc.
b. Solvent based classification: This includes paints, which use petro products or water as the main solvent. Water based paints are gaining popularity due to their environment friendliness.
c. Solid content: Can be classified as liquid or solid (powder) paints. Powder coatings find application mainly in the white goods industry.
d. The decorative segment dominates the market in India with a 70% share with the rest accounted for by
industrial paints. This is as compared to the developed countries where the share is the reverse with the industrial segment being the major one.
Industry Characteristics
An Overview of Indian Paints Industry
The Indian paints industry is seen to be consolidating, with the share of the organized sector within the industry on the rise. The size of the paints market in India is estimated at Rs 48-50 bn, with the contribution of the organized and unorganized segments in the ratio of 70:30. The unorganized sector has around 2,000 units, which operate on a much smaller scale.
Reduction of excise duties over the last few years, from 40% to the present level of 16%, has helped create a level playing field between the unorganized and the organized segments, as the former is not subject to excise duty. As the unorganized sector loses its competitive edge, it is also losing market share to the organized sector players. Last year, the removal of Special Additional duty and the import duty cuts helped the industry.
In view of the low per capita annual consumption of paints in India (0.5 kg, compared to 4 kg in South East Asian countries, 22 kg in developed countries and a global average of 15 kg), the domestic paints industry has tremendous potential.
Per Capita Consumption of Paints (Kg)
While high excise duties hindered the growth of the industry in the early 1990s, growth picked up after 1992, mainly due to reduction of duties and acceleration of industrial growth. The growth of the paints industry is mainly attributable to urban markets. Consolidation is taking place in favour of large players, as increasing costs and intense competition afflict smaller companies.
The paints industry is working-capital intensive, rather than fixed-asset intensive. As in consumer non- durables, distribution strengths and brand building are of paramount importance.
Segments
Decorative and industrial paints are the segments within the sector, in a 70:30 proportion. Brand equity, a wide range of shades, distribution strength and efficient working capital management are key success factors in the decorative paints segment. A strong distribution network acts as an entry barrier. Within the decorative segment, enamel is the largest sub-segment, accounting for over 50%, followed by wall finishes, primers and wood finishes. The season for decorative paints is from October to March, a period characterized by festivals like Diwali, and the summer, when painting is normally carried out.
The industrial segment pertains mainly to automobiles. In this segment, technological competence, product range and customized solutions are of utmost importance. Technological strength is another entry barrier. The slowdown in the automobile sector has affected the overall growth of the industrial segment, as the former contributes around 50% of the latter’s revenues.
Other sub-segments are marine paints, powder coatings for white goods like refrigerators and washing machines, and industrial coatings. Within the paints sector, the proportion of the industrial paints segment is likely to increase in the next few years and the ratio is likely to become 50:50.
Raw Material
The paint industry is raw material-intensive, in terms of value and quantity of raw materials used. Raw material costs account for around 70% of total production costs. Imports constitute around 30% of the raw material requirements. The most critical raw materials used are titanium dioxide (TD) (rutile and anatase grades), phthalic anhydride (PAN) and pentaerithrithol (PENTA). Some other raw materials like castor oil, soyabean oil, linseed oil and mineral turpentine are also used. Increasing prices of raw materials, on the one hand, and the inability to pass on the price increases from recession and competitive pressure, on the other, are major areas of concern.
Production Process
Paint production involves mixing of various raw materials in a balanced proportion. Based on a predetermined formula, pigments, extenders, resins and additives are ground together in a dispersion or grinding mill. The ground mixture is then dispersed in a medium, which could be based on oil or water depending on the paint produced. The final volume and shade are obtained by adding resins, driers, solvents and some additives to the concentrated dispersion.
Growth Prospects
The growth rates in GDP and industrial production have a direct bearing on the paints industry, as these, in turn; affect sectors like construction and automobiles. Last year the industry grew by 10-12 percent in volume terms.
The recent deceleration in industrial production and the weakening rupee, coupled with the spurt in the international prices of crude oil and chemicals, are expected to act as dampeners for the paint industry.
The paints sector will be hoping for a revival in the domestic automobile sector. An increase in construction activity should also lead to a pickup in demand for paints. The growth in the consumer non-durables sector will also augur well for the paints industry.
Major Players
Asian Paints India Ltd.
Asian Paints is the largest player in India, and also the market leader in decorative paints, with a 40% market share. It has a domestic installed capacity of 162,700 tpa for paints. With the government planning a thrust in the housing sector, players like Asian Paints stand to benefit, as demand for decorative paints will grow.
Taking advantage of the increase in the automatic approval of overseas investments, Asian Paints recently acquired the entire paint business of Pacific Paints Co. Pty. Ltd., Australia, for Aus$375,000. Last year, Asian Paints had acquired the largest paint company in Sri Lanka.
Asian Paints’ vision is to be among the top five decorative paints companies in the world by 2007.
Goodlass Nerolac Paints Ltd.
Goodlass Nerolac Paints is the leader in the industrial paints segment. Earlier this year, Kansai Paints of Japan bought out the Tatas’ stake in Goodlass Nerolac Paints, to raise its stake in the company to 65%. Goodlass Nerolac Paints’s manufacturing capacity is 88,140 tpa.
Berger Paints Ltd.
Berger Paints acquired Rajdoot Paints Ltd in FY1999. Thus, it has consolidated its position within the decorative segment. Installed capacity is 56,420 tpa.
In addition to increased focus on its existing industrial paints / protective coatings business, the company is entering into a 50:50 joint venture with ICI India Ltd, exclusively for automobile and industrial paints. Both companies will have equal representation on the board of the JV. The automobile and industrial paints business of ICI India, along with the assets at Rishra, exclusively used for the paints business, will be transferred to the joint venture for an aggregate consideration of Rs.165 mn.
sharply in the year, which put pressure on margins. The pharma division sold some animal health brands to focus on cardiovascular and anaesthetics. ICI Plc’s catalyst business world-wide was relaunched after the merger of several entities under a new identity, Synetix. This helped the Indian arm double profits in FY99. The catalysts division launched three new products in the year. The polyurethanes business doubled sales in FY99 by increasing market share and focusing on the auto and footwear segments. ICI’s PAT improved by 22% due to exceptional income through divestment in NALCO chemicals (sale of ZIAl and some animal health brands). Pursuant to the approval given by the Board in its meeting held on 25 Jan 2002 for the divestment of Pharmaceuticals Business, ICI India had sought shareholders’ approval through Postal Ballot. The shareholders of ICI India Limited have approved the divestment of the company’s pharmaceuticals business to Nicholas Piramal India Limited in the month of March.
Future Plans
ICI plans to boost exports in synetix & pharmaceuticals businesses. It plans to improve forex earnings through trading activities. ICI has plans to go in for acquisitions in order to increase sales by 8 folds in 7 years. ICI Plc has identified Asia as a major vehicle for growth and its acquisitions in niche chemical business are expected to offer good opportunities for ICI India. The company identified paints, speciality products and performance materials (polyurethanes and acrylic) as core areas to focus on.
The profitability levels for the surfactants business (which has turnover of Rs 100 crore) is one of the best in the industry. In fact it currently has a market share of about 7-8 per cent in the business and is doing very well primarily due to its ability to service clients. It has a textile research tiliz in Thane to service not only clients in India, but also the entire Asia Pacific. The business has huge growth potential post-2005, when the quota regime is phased out. It has the ability to emerge as a large-scale player.
ICI India is doing fairly well in the adhesives/starch business as well, which it started about two years ago. The turnover for the division stands at about Rs 70 crore and it is growing by 50 per cent year-on-year. There is big potential once the Government regulation regarding starch is modified to the benefit of domestic producers. At present the regulation is inconsistent, but the Government is proposing to address it keeping in view the post-2005 scenario.
However, its Rs 70-crore rubber chemicals business is making losses. But it is not only ICI India; everyone in this business has been making losses primarily because prices have been kept artificially low. It is taking steps to revive the business through initiatives such as cost cutting, augmenting capacity for specific grades of rubber chemicals and so on. It is also actively exporting the product in the international markets. For the present, it is keen to revive the business than to divest it. However, in the long run, it is expected to move out of this business.
ICI India also has a 51:49 joint venture Quest International along with Hindustan Lever for flavours and fragrances. But it is a challenging time with the FMCG market slowing down. However, ICI India is leveraging its capabilities to service other markets. It has started exporting the products, predominantly fragrances, to countries located in the Asia Pacific region. At present, about one-third of the business for Quest is coming from exports. ICI is also contemplating to set up an export unit for fragrances.
However, it will not be participating in the food ingredients business anymore in India. But it will not make much difference in financial terms, as the business was quite small, less than Rs 3 crore.
There is talk that ICI has been actively scouting for acquisitions, as the company has a strong cash surplus after the recent divestments. It has a cash surplus of about Rs 350 crore which it plans to invest in core businesses. For acquisitions, it is currently evaluating all options. The cash would also be utilised for expansion plans, including the capacity expansion ICI is undertaking for rubber chemicals. ICI is also exploring if it can further augment capacity for paints from the current 60 million liters per year.
Last year ICI’s core businesses grew by about 20 per cent and it is expected to maintain the high level of growth and effectively utilise its financial strength.
Annexure I Paint Industry Aggregates (Rs. in million)
Paints (All)
2004 2003
Net Sales
Operating Income
Expenses
Gross Block
Operating Income Growth (YoY)
–49.44% –6.02% 3.58%
PAT Growth (YoY)
–24.39% 16.30% 62.86%
Financial Statements of ICI India Ltd.
Income Statement (Rs. in million)
For the Year ending on 31 st^ March
2004 2003 2002
Net Sales
Operating Income
Non-Operating Income
Extraordinary/Prior Period
Tax
Profit after tax (PAT)
Equity Dividend
Balance Sheet (Rs. in million)
As on 31st^ March
2004 2003 2002
Reserves
Total Debt
Creditors and Acceptances
Other current liabilities/provisions
Total
Annexure II Technical Analysis Charts of ICI India Ltd. Moving Average Chart
MACD Chart
ROC Chart
RSI Chart
Read the caselet carefully and answer the following questions:
6. The caselet mentions that the ISE has been established to solve the problem of low turnover at the regional stock exchanges. When the investors including brokers can trade directly at NSE and BSE through the online trading system what are the benefits of ISE to participating exchanges, members, investors and companies? Discuss.
(9 marks) < Answer >
in United States. Suggest briefly the various aspects that SEBI should look into to ensure protection of investors interests from unauthentic research reports.
(8 marks) < Answer >
‘Stock research reports’ have become more important in the face of the ongoing boom in the stock markets. A team of ‘expert analysts’ prepares these ‘research reports’. Each report is expected to provide investors with an in-depth analysis and future financial projections for a company. The objective is to give investors a qualitative feel for the opportunities and risks facing each of the companies covered. Conventionally, research reports are privileged and made available only to select audiences, such as institutional investors. However, the recommendations are more widely circulated. The reason is that if these recommendations are vindicated by the market it helps in attracting investors in future to the brokerage house and increases the brokerage income. As a result though the research reports do not make their way directly to retail investors, their presence is felt in the recommendations made by these brokers. Such investment recommendations are published in leading business magazines/newspapers and are available in plenty on various investment related websites on the Internet also. But the big question is what is the authenticity of research reports being poured out by various stock-brokers and investment bankers?
In his book “ The Mind of the Wall Street” , Leon Levy has quoted a study about the authenticity of research reports published by security analysts. The study by Risk Metrics of 89,000 stock research reports issued at Wall Street’s largest firms since 1998 revealed that investors would have done better by ignoring stock analysts’ recommendations and buying those stocks that were least favored the by highly paid ‘investment gurus’. The study featured in Wall Street Journal on 15 August 2001.
The Dalal street is not much different from Wall Street. In 1998, Harshad Mehta, the ‘Great Bull’ of Indian capital markets, hit upon a brilliant idea of repeating his ‘success’ story of 1992. He launched a website ‘harshad.com’ which would provide ‘investment advice’ (read tips) in the guise of ‘research reports’. He believed that ‘the same old formula of rigging up select scrips to stratospheric heights would work all over again’. However, the markets crashed in June 1998 and many investors burnt their fingers again.
In a report published in May 2001, Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) indicted JM Morgan Stanley Securities Pvt Ltd, stating that a limited review its trading activities showed instances of transactions which appeared to be of a manipulative nature which could have impacted the decline in certain scrip prices. The report also stated "trading by clients is sometimes influenced by a large plethora of research reports released by the member, which are company specific or general in nature. To go into the recommendations contained in the research reports and their impact upon general trading sentiment would require an exhaustive analysis." It is worthwhile noting that JM Morgan Stanley Securities Pvt Ltd is a trading member of the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange.
Though no systematic study of stock research reports similar to that of Risk Metrics Group has been conducted in India, however, Business Line , the leading business daily, conducted a survey of investment recommendations by brokers/broking houses in 2001.
A look at the recommendation patterns of analyst opinions from different equity houses across the country reveals that 8 out of every 10 recommendations is a buy'. The bias towards a
buy' recommendation is uniform across most industry segments. Investors may increasingly be steered towards `buy' candidates. Few, if any, recommendations focus on companies that investors should exit from. But the important question is whether investors profit from such advice. Given that analysts are better informed, should the small investor take such recommendations at face value and make them the basis for their stock-selection/rejection? But analysts can go wrong. And there is evidence of it.
Of a sample of stocks that Business Line surveyed, 83 per cent had buy' recommendations. Only 8 per cent carried a
sell' while on the remaining 9 per cent, analysts debated between recommending a buy or a sell. In 53 per cent of the buy recommendations, analysts have been proved right. By this, we mean that the stocks moved up after they were so rated. Stock prices either moved down or were passive only 47 per cent of the time. However, it comes as a surprise that analysts were more vindicated in their sell' ratings, with 60 per cent of the stocks so rated bearing out the analyst's recommendations. Only in four cases out of ten did stocks see an uptrend in prices after getting a
sell' rating. In the stocks where analysts differed in their judgement on whether to rate them a buy or a sell, only 15 per cent actually rose. On the other hand, 46 per cent of the recommendations tilted in favour of a `sell'. The remaining 38 per cent of the stocks saw prices remain passive, neither justifying a buy nor a sell judgement.
SEBI has been almost indifferent as far as the stock research reports are concerned. There are no equivalent guidelines as prescribed by SEC under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act,2002 in United States.
The Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) framed a regulation called ‘Fair Disclosure’ (FD) in 2001 which required that the companies should make any price sensitive information public at the same time and not to select analysts and investors ahead of the rest. Recently under the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, 2002 SEC has prescribed tighter regulations for security analysts and the research reports. Are the regulators listening?
Read the caselet carefully and answer the following questions:
10. The caselet mentions that the Indian stock market has moved to T+2 settlement from April 2003. Describe the advantages of rolling settlement over the earlier system of periodical settlement.
(7 marks) < Answer >
11. What are the major reforms that have been undertaken by SEBI consequent to the series of scams that have struck the Indian stock market? Discuss.
(9 marks) < Answer >
Markets thrive on sentiment particularly the stock exchange, which is nothing but a pressure-cooker of emotions and biases making the best bet. Perhaps that was why the capital market received the maximum attention and freedom when Dr Manmohan Singh decided the country had had enough of socialist growth.
The immediate result of his radical measures was a change in sentiment. It altered the way people looked at the country, both from within and without. Everything had a flavour of the market place. This change in sentiment and approach was perhaps the single-most defining restructuring achieved by the reforms.
When entrepreneurs realised they could get a much higher not necessarily fair price for equity, they flooded the primary market with new issues. What followed was a boom hitherto not seen in the country. When in 1992 the Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index crossed the 4000-mark in 1992, it had more than doubled in less than a year.
The absence of big money and integration with other markets was the root cause of the scam. Operators found a way to route idle money from the banking system to the stock market to fuel its voracious appetite.
In spite of the initial setback, however, the integration with the global markets continued. Indian companies were allowed to raise funds abroad through Global Depository Receipts and American Depository Receipts. Market players began setting their sights higher, such as the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq. Over the next few years, the market got institutionalised with the entry of a number of mutual funds and foreign institutional investors (FIIs) that brought tonnes of money into the market.
It was perhaps the shift from a unique market to a common market that threw up opportunities, both for scrupulous as well as unscrupulous operators.
While the intensity and nature of trading have increased, and the transaction costs have fallen, the market is still plagued with numerous problems. There has been a recurrence of systemic crises over the years the securities scam of 1992, the MS Shoes scandal of 1994, the vanishing NBFCs in 1994-1996, the CRB fiasco of 1997, the stock price manipulation in 1998, the dismissal of the BSE President, Mr Anand Rathi, and the scam of 2001, leading to the arrest of the broker, Ketan Parekh.
However, over the years, reforms in the equity market have not just produced scams and manipulators, but also brought the country on a par with many a developed market on several counts. Today, India boasts of a variety of products, including stock futures an instrument launched only by select markets.
The introduction of rolling settlement was the final step in the direction of modernising the stock market. Though it has not adversely affected volumes, unless electronic fund transfer is made available, the volumes may not increase.
Market participants feel that SEBI and the RBI should quickly evolve a mechanism that would seamlessly link the depositories to the payment system through the clearing corporation to ensure delivery-based payment. A move to T+2 settlement has already been made and STP has also been introduced in a limited way in the equity leg of institutional investors. In the Economic Survey 2003-04, it has been proposed to make the Indian IPO market state of the art, technologically networked, end-to-end seamless market. Recently SEBI has also appointed an expert task force to look into the infrastructure issues of the various segments of the capital market. The task force has been named as Stock Market Infrastructure Leveraging Expert task force (SMILE).
1. Michael Porter analysis of the paint industry is as follows:
a. Threat of Entry: The amount of capital investment required is low. So the threat of entry is high. This is evidenced by the fact that there are a large number of players in the unorganized sector in this industry. In the organized sector, there are some players like Asian Paints Ltd, who command high brand equity and a large share of the market. This when combined with the requirement of a large distributor network and high working capital, make the barriers to entry high and the threat of entry low in the organized sector. b. Bargaining Power of Buyers: The buyers of this industry are the final consumers whose bargaining power is insignificant for decorative paints. For industrial paint bargaining power of the buyer is significant. c. Bargaining Power of Suppliers: One of the main raw materials, Titanium Dioxide is partly produced in India and partly imported. There are no problems with the availability of this raw material. Among the other raw materials, excepting the Phthalic Anhydride, for which 80% of the production is concentrated in the hands of two suppliers, there is no such concentration of production capacity with few suppliers for any other raw material. Keeping everything in view, excepting the import of Titanium Dioxide, about which no information about the suppliers is available, it can be said that the bargaining power of suppliers is low. The suppliers of Phthalic Anhydride also cannot exercise much bargaining power because of the presence of other 5 producers as well as the low growth in demand at present. d. Threat of Substitute Products: There are no substitute products for paints. Hence threat of substitute products is almost non-existent. e. Competitive Rivalry among the Players: The rivalry among the existing players is high. While Asian Paints is ahead of others, the competitors are trying hard to gain some ground. The rivalry is going to increase with the rural and suburban markets, till now catered to by the unorganized sector, getting opened to the organized players. < TOP >
2. Volumes of the paints industry are very closely linked to the GDP growth. A Budget that encourages GDP growth will definitely generate demand and create volumes for the industry. The support expected for the agricultural sector in the Budget would also help the paints industry, as there is much scope for growth in the rural segment. Last year the duty cuts on import of chemicals helped the industry. The good monsoons had also provided a fillip on the volumes side. Last year, the industry grew by about 10-12 per cent in volume terms. Though there was pressure on margins in the first half of the financial year with input prices going up, it eased during the latter half of the year due to several factors including the reduction in import duty on chemicals, appreciation of the rupee, and removal of the Special Additional Duty. The industry had passed on some of these benefits to the consumer and there was about three per cent reduction in product prices. The pressure on margins was, however, back in the first couple of months of the current fiscal (2003-04) as a result of which the price cuts are being rolled back. The pressure has been due to the increase in international chemical prices and also oil prices going up. This has adversely affected the Operating income growth rate and PAT growth rate during the last year. In spite of this, the ROCE and RONW have shown an increasing trend during the last three years. < TOP > 3. a. SWOT Analysis of ICI India Ltd.
Strengths
Weaknesses
Opportunities
Threats
b. ROE Analysis:
Net sales