Wildfires in Alberta: Prevention, Mitigation, and Impact, Study notes of Communication

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Prepared By: November 2020

MNP LLP

Suite 1600, MNP Tower

10235 101 Street NW

Edmonton, AB T5J 3G

Spring 2019 Wildfire Review Final Report

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• Executive Summary TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Note to Reader
• Introduction – Wildfire in Alberta...........................................................................
• Spring 2019 Wildfire Conditions
• Summary of 2019 Major Incidents
• Public and Community Engagement
• Wildfire Management Program Evaluation
• Prevention, Mitigation and Communication
• Detection
• Preparedness..........................................................................................................
• Suppression
• Strategic Program Management
• Information Technology Systems
• Cost Management
• Risk Management and Strategic Response
• WMB as a High-Reliability Organization
• Implementing Change
• Note on Data Limitations
• Appendices – Table of Contents
• Figure 1: Number of Wildfires in Alberta, 2011-2019 TABLE OF FIGURES
• Figure 2: Hectares Burned in Alberta, 2011-2019
• Figure 3: Map of Alberta’s Natural Regions
• Figure 4: Map of Alberta's Forest Protection Area
• Figure 5: Area Burned by Wildfires in the Boreal and Foothills by Month,
• Figure 6: Area Burned by Wildfires in the Boreal and Foothills by Month, 2011-
• Figure 7: Number of Wildfires in the Boreal and Foothills by Month,
• Figure 8: Number of Wildfires in the Boreal and Foothills by Month, 2011-2018
• Figure 10: Average HFI in the Boreal and Foothills by Month,
• Figure 10: Average HFI in the Boreal and Foothills by Month, 2011-2018
• Figure 11: Spatial Distribution of Wildfires, by Month, in Alberta since
• Canada Airport Station Figure 12: 2018/2019 Monthly Precipitation Anomalies for High Level Environment
• Underlying Drought that Supported Extreme Fire Behaviour in May Figure 13: Provincial Drought Code Maps for May 10 and June 3, Showing the
• Events in May 2019. Figure 14: Provincial Initial Spread Index Maps for Significant Wildfire Spread
• in May Figure 15: Provincial Fire Weather Index Maps for Significant Wildfire Spread Events
• Figure 16: Summary of 2019 Wildfire Major Events
• Figure 17: Map of Alberta Fire Status—May 31,
• Figure 18: Initial Progression of PWF052 (Battle Complex)
• Figure 19: Initial Progression of HWF042 (Chuckegg Creek)
• Figure 20: Initial Progression of SWF049 and SWF050 (McMillan Complex)............
• Figure 21: 2019 Evacuation Timeline
• Figure 22: Wildfires by Type 2011-2019

Page i Figure 23: Recreation and Residential Wildfire Trends ........................................... 58 Figure 24: Industry Wildfire Trends ........................................................................ 59 Figure 25: Community Zone Wildfires vs. Non-Community Zone Wildfires ............. 60 Figure 26: 2011-2019 Community Zone Wildfires ................................................... 60 Figure 27: Incendiary Wildfires ............................................................................... 63 Figure 28: Count of Wildfire Cause by Month 1990-2019 ........................................ 72 Figure 29: Average Coverage Levels by HFI (2011-2019) ........................................ 79 Figure 30: Average Coverage Levels by HFI (2019) .................................................. 79 Figure 31: Coverage at HFI 5, 6 by Month (2019) .................................................... 80 Figure 32: Annual Spending by Program Area over a Five Year Period (Fiscal Years 2016-2020) ........................................................................................................... 109 Figure 33: Average Annual Preparedness and Suppression Expenditures per Wildfire in Alberta, Ontario and BC (Fiscal Years 2016-2020) ............................................. 109 Figure 34: Average Total Annual Preparedness and Suppression Expenditures in Alberta, Ontario and BC (Fiscal Years 2016-2020)50 ............................................. 109 Figure 35: Average Number of Wildfires per Calendar Year in Alberta, Ontario, BC and NWT (2010-2019) .......................................................................................... 110 Figure 36: Suppression Expenditure Breakdown in Alberta (Fire Year 2019) ......... 111 Figure 37: The “Least-Cost-Plus-Loss Theory” ....................................................... 114 Figure 38: Aircraft and Non-Aircraft Suppression Spending .................................. 115 Figure 39: Aircraft and Non-Aircraft Suppression Spending .................................. 115 Figure 40: Total Active Rotary Wing Units Per Day Compared to Unused Minimums ............................................................................................................................. 117 Figure 41: Total Suppression and Preparedness Spending in Alberta, BC, and Ontario for Fiscal Years 2016-2020 .................................................................................... 118 Figure 42: Rotary Wing Suppression Expenditure Summary for Calendar Year 2019 ............................................................................................................................. 118 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: FWI Values in Relation to Low, Moderate, High, Very High and Extreme Fire Danger Ratings ....................................................................................................... 22

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1  Executive Summary

Page 2 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the spring of 2019, 993 wildfires burned over 880,000 hectares in Alberta; an area eight times the area burned in California during 2019^1 ,^2. Over 75 percent of the burned area was from three incidents known as the Chuckegg Creek wildfire, the McMillan complex, and the Battle complex. The 2019 season follows other recent extreme wildfire events in the province including the Flat Top complex in 2011 that affected the Town of Slave Lake and surrounding communities, an extreme fire season in 2015 that saw both a significant number of wildfires and area burned, and the 2016 Horse River wildfire that caused unprecedented damage and the evacuation of Fort McMurray and surrounding areas. Wildfire has always been a reality in the forested lands of Alberta. The Forest Protection Area (FPA) for which Alberta’s Wildfire Management Branch (WMB) is responsible covers approximately 39 million hectares, an area larger than Germany. The Government of Alberta has developed an extensive Wildfire Management program that provides a range of wildfire management services within the Forest Protection Area that are designed to protect Albertans, the communities in which they live and the industries in which they work. The extreme burning conditions and significant wildfire events in 2019 tested the limits of the Wildfire Management program and impacted many Albertans. In response, Alberta Agriculture and Forestry (AAF), commissioned an independent review of WMB and the extraordinary wildfire activity the organization faced in 2019. This review focused on the operational aspects of the 2019 response to the spring wildfires (specific to the Chuckegg Creek wildfire, the McMillan complex, and the Battle complex); the impact on and perspectives (^1) California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2019/ (^2) As in Alberta, the California fire season is reported per calendar year. Wildfires in 2019 were reported in California January 1, 2019 to November 30, 2019. of residents, partners and stakeholders; and an evaluation of the Wildfire Management program in its entirety including the connection of the 2019 experience to past fire seasons and reviews. Review Methodology In order to gather a complete picture of the events that took place and their impact on Albertans, approximately 300 members of the public^3 had the opportunity to participate in this review process. This included representatives and community members from impacted municipalities, First Nations and Métis communities, and industry representatives. The review also included engagement with roughly 80 individuals representing WMB, partner organizations within the Government of Alberta, as well as out-of-province wildfire management professionals that participated in the 2019 season. Finally, in an effort to understand how wildfire management activities practiced by WMB compare to neighbouring jurisdictions, the review engaged representatives from British Columbia, Northwest Territories, Ontario and Saskatchewan. The findings from these engagements along with a comprehensive analysis of wildfire and costing data gathered from WMB, guided the analysis and ultimately, the development of findings, recommendations and opportunities for improvement. Key Statistics from the 2019 Spring Wildfire Review Fire hazard conditions early in 2019 were extreme. There were several indicators in the winter and spring months of 2019 that signaled an early and potentially severe spring fire season including (^3) Approximately 175 individuals attended the townhall sessions with MNP and the Minister of Agriculture and Forestry, with the remaining 125 participating in one-on-one or group interviews with MNP.

Page 4 When wildfires become public emergencies, it is vital for all parts of government to work together seamlessly to represent community interests— sharing the right information, keeping the public informed and protecting their well-being. Members of the public and other partner agencies are not concerned with interagency distinctions within government (e.g. WMB vs. AEMA vs. Provincial Operations Centre (POC)). They view the government as a single entity, which makes trust and relationship building a government-wide initiative. Over the course of the program evaluation many public stakeholders described their concern and frustration about an absence of information, or when information was shared, about the confusing nature of much of the messaging and data. In situations when this information was accompanied with additional context, public stakeholders felt better able to interpret and understand the information, leading them to feel their well-being was being considered. Several improvements have been made to the approach and capacity for public communications in recent years including filling WMB’s Team Lead Information Officer position for the first time in four years; filling this role has given the organization more leadership and capacity to deliver communications services. In addition to in-person communication, WMB has several platforms used to communicate with the public. However, at the time of this report, WMB lacks the data needed to determine the strategic effectiveness of these tools. Given the public perception of limited access to information, WMB must define its key audiences and then ensure the most effective channels and mediums are being used to reach those audiences. Investment in proactive, strategic preparedness ahead of a wildfire situation will reduce impacts and losses felt by the public and the economy and will save the government costs in the long run. Effective preparedness ensures that a wildfire organization is well-equipped and ready to respond to rapidly developing hazards. The existing framework for preparedness planning has been in place since the 1980s and while in most situations it is effective, in the extreme conditions experienced in 2019, shortcomings were apparent. In 2019 this framework restricted the ability of WMB staff to respond strategically and contributed to the high costs associated with sustained action on the three concurrent major wildfire incidents. A risk-informed approach that considers fire occurrence and values- at-risk would address these challenges. Improved coordination between the fire weather and behaviour sections of WMB is necessary to ensure better integration of the science into field operations and decision-making—particularly while hazards are high early in the fire season and during extreme wildfire and weather events. In situations where there are multiple wildfires on the landscape, the use of probabilistic forecasting that goes beyond the favoured three-day weather forecast currently in use, would enable improved situational awareness among wildfire operations staff. In hindsight, there was a five-day window of opportunity to achieve a perimeter around the Chuckegg Creek wildfire before a major wind event arrived that ultimately pushed the wildfire beyond WMB resourcing capabilities. In this situation, earlier coordinated messaging on risks would have helped decision- makers. Finally, the potential benefits of timely and effective Initial Attack supports additional investment in strategic preparedness. These benefits include reduced area burned, fewer losses to values on the landscape and significantly reduced wildfire suppression costs. The findings of the program evaluation clearly indicate that wildfires that are actioned on time and contained in the first burning period (a key performance target for WMB) result in much lower costs and area burnt.

Page 5 Fully embracing a culture of safety is essential for any organization facing emergency situations and dealing with dangerous natural events. Wildfire management in Alberta relies on a significant number of aircraft to move crews, equipment and water to the fireline. While this can be an effective approach, it introduces risks of a crowded airspace, particularly where helicopters are working with buckets and moving quickly both horizontally and vertically, and where airtankers may be active on the same wildfire. Though staff are in place to manage these situations, there are occurrences when too many aircraft are working in a confined space leading to increased risk of mid-air collisions. With respect to safety incidents related to fireline, basecamp, or logistics operations, any categorization or analysis of trends for 2019 was not available to this review. However, during interviews with staff, concerns over high-risk operating conditions and a lack of resolution following safety events was expressed. At a minimum, some saw a missed opportunity to debrief and educate staff with safety- related lessons and insights. It appears WMB has yet to build a 21st^ century safety management system and associated culture. WMB has an opportunity to look at the culture of its own organization and its relationships with staff, contracors and partners to embrace excellence in the face of risk and uncertainty. “High-reliability organizations” (HROs) (Wieck and Sutcliffe, 2007) succeed in avoiding failures in environments that exhibit higher-than-normal risk and complexity. Studies of organizations that operate in these environments, including wildfire management agencies, have led to clear understandings of the organizational principles that provide for success. The theoretical framework and real-life application of HRO principles can be an input to efforts to become more strategic and to make decisions informed by a fuller appreciation of risk management. Realization of cultural change will be an outcome of that effort. The following pages provide the combined highlights of the 2019 wildfire season review and the Wildfire Management program evaluation including key findings, recommendations, actions or opportunities for improvement. A complete list of Recommendations and associated Actions can be found in Appendix K, page 260.

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