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Week 1: Introduction to Probability in Soc500: Applied Social Statistics, Schemes and Mind Maps of Statistics

The first week of the course 'Soc500: Applied Social Statistics' taught by Professor Stewart from Princeton University. The week covers the introduction to probability, including definitions, sample spaces, events, probability functions, and Bayes' Rule. The professor also discusses the goals and structure of the course, as well as the importance of RMarkdown.

Typology: Schemes and Mind Maps

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Soc500: Applied Social Statistics
Week 1: Introduction and Probability
Brandon Stewart1
Princeton
September 14, 2016
1These slides are heavily influenced by Matt Blackwell, Adam Glynn and Matt Salganik.
The spam filter segment is adapted from Justin Grimmer and Dan Jurafsky. Illustrations by
Shay O’Brien.
Stewart (Princeton) Week 1: Introduction and Probability September 14, 2016 1 / 62
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Soc500: Applied Social Statistics

Week 1: Introduction and Probability

Brandon Stewart^1

Princeton

September 14, 2016

1 These slides are heavily influenced by Matt Blackwell, Adam Glynn and Matt Salganik.

The spam filter segment is adapted from Justin Grimmer and Dan Jurafsky. Illustrations by

Shay O’Brien.

Where We’ve Been and Where We’re Going...

Last Week

I methods camp

I pre-grad school life

This Week

I Wednesday

F welcome

F basics of probability

Next Week

I random variables

I joint distributions

Long Run

I probability → inference → regression

Questions?

Welcome and Introductions

Soc500: Applied Social Statistics

Welcome and Introductions

Soc500: Applied Social Statistics

I

Welcome and Introductions

Soc500: Applied Social Statistics

I

I ... am an Assistant Professor in Sociology.

I ... am trained in political science and statistics

Welcome and Introductions

Soc500: Applied Social Statistics

I

I ... am an Assistant Professor in Sociology.

I ... am trained in political science and statistics

I ... do research in methods and statistical text analysis

Welcome and Introductions

Soc500: Applied Social Statistics

I

I ... am an Assistant Professor in Sociology.

I ... am trained in political science and statistics

I ... do research in methods and statistical text analysis

I ... love doing collaborative research

I ... talk very quickly

Welcome and Introductions

Soc500: Applied Social Statistics

I

I ... am an Assistant Professor in Sociology.

I ... am trained in political science and statistics

I ... do research in methods and statistical text analysis

I ... love doing collaborative research

I ... talk very quickly

Your Preceptors

Welcome and Introductions

Soc500: Applied Social Statistics

I

I ... am an Assistant Professor in Sociology.

I ... am trained in political science and statistics

I ... do research in methods and statistical text analysis

I ... love doing collaborative research

I ... talk very quickly

Your Preceptors

I sage guides of all things

I Ian Lundberg

Welcome and Introductions

Soc500: Applied Social Statistics

I

I ... am an Assistant Professor in Sociology.

I ... am trained in political science and statistics

I ... do research in methods and statistical text analysis

I ... love doing collaborative research

I ... talk very quickly

Your Preceptors

I sage guides of all things

I Ian Lundberg

I Simone Zhang

(^1) Welcome (^2) Goals (^3) Ways to Learn (^4) Structure of Course (^5) Introduction to Probability What is Probability? Sample Spaces and Events Probability Functions Marginal, Joint and Conditional Probability Bayes’ Rule Independence (^6) Fun With History

The Core Strategy

The Core Strategy

Goal: get you ready to quantitative work

First in a two course sequence replication project

The Core Strategy

Goal: get you ready to quantitative work

First in a two course sequence replication project

(for graduate students, part of a longer arc)