In 1962, J.William Leasure made a critique of Demographic Transition Theory by
looking at the neighbor provinces in Spain, and he supported the idea that the main
determinant for the similar fertility behavior should be the diffusion of cultural values, rather
than economic development and levels of urbanization. In this short essay, I will argue that
Demographic Transition Theory, which takes socioeconomic development as the primary
driver for the decline in fertility, is still more a powerful way to explain it than the critique of
Leasure.
To give a very interesting and current example from the book ‘Why Nations Fail’
written by Daron Acemoğlu and James A.Robinson, the first chapter of the book called ‘So
Close and Yet So Different’ begins with a comparison of two cities, Nogales Arizona and
Nogales Sonora. There is only a fence that seperates these cities, and while Arizona is in the
US, Sonora belongs to Mexico. Although people on both sides of Nogales are culturally
homogenous in terms of sharing the same ancestors and enjoying the same food and music,
their living standards are quite different. While most of the residents of Nogales Arizona are
over 65 with a higher life expectancy, population in Nogales Sonora is much younger, with
high rates of infant mortality and with a much lower life expectancy, which is worrisome. In
spite of relatively high mortality rates, the government promotes population increases in
Sonora to sustain level of high fertility throughout Mexico. On the contrary, migration from
southern to northern for agricultural fieldwork is main cause of the population growth in
Arizona. In other words, population in Arizona is relatively healthy, live longer and have
lower fertility rates than Sonora. According to Leasure, since concept of family planning is
diffusing faster without communication barriers, areas that share a similar culture are parallel
to fertility rates than areas that are culturally less similar. Cultural setting and diffusion of
values are better at explaining fertility levels in the neighborhood even though the levels of
urbanization and economic development might be different. However, this diffusion theory
does not work in the two Nogales’ example. Our expectation would be to observe similar
SOC262
Fall 2018 First Assignment
Gülşah Suileten
2016300183
