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Comparing Fertility Rates in Nogales, AZ & Sonora: Testing Demographic Transition Theory, Essays (university) of Demographic Sociology

The debate between demographic transition theory and leasure's critique on the determinants of fertility behavior. Using the example of nogales, arizona and nogales, sonora, the author argues that socioeconomic development remains a more powerful predictor of fertility decline than cultural values. A university assignment from a sociology course in fall 2018.

Typology: Essays (university)

2018/2019

Uploaded on 10/06/2019

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In 1962, J.William Leasure made a critique of Demographic Transition Theory by
looking at the neighbor provinces in Spain, and he supported the idea that the main
determinant for the similar fertility behavior should be the diffusion of cultural values, rather
than economic development and levels of urbanization. In this short essay, I will argue that
Demographic Transition Theory, which takes socioeconomic development as the primary
driver for the decline in fertility, is still more a powerful way to explain it than the critique of
Leasure.
To give a very interesting and current example from the book ‘Why Nations Fail’
written by Daron Acemoğlu and James A.Robinson, the first chapter of the book called ‘So
Close and Yet So Different’ begins with a comparison of two cities, Nogales Arizona and
Nogales Sonora. There is only a fence that seperates these cities, and while Arizona is in the
US, Sonora belongs to Mexico. Although people on both sides of Nogales are culturally
homogenous in terms of sharing the same ancestors and enjoying the same food and music,
their living standards are quite different. While most of the residents of Nogales Arizona are
over 65 with a higher life expectancy, population in Nogales Sonora is much younger, with
high rates of infant mortality and with a much lower life expectancy, which is worrisome. In
spite of relatively high mortality rates, the government promotes population increases in
Sonora to sustain level of high fertility throughout Mexico. On the contrary, migration from
southern to northern for agricultural fieldwork is main cause of the population growth in
Arizona. In other words, population in Arizona is relatively healthy, live longer and have
lower fertility rates than Sonora. According to Leasure, since concept of family planning is
diffusing faster without communication barriers, areas that share a similar culture are parallel
to fertility rates than areas that are culturally less similar. Cultural setting and diffusion of
values are better at explaining fertility levels in the neighborhood even though the levels of
urbanization and economic development might be different. However, this diffusion theory
does not work in the two Nogales’ example. Our expectation would be to observe similar
SOC262
Fall 2018 First Assignment
Gülşah Suileten
2016300183
pf2

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In 1962, J.William Leasure made a critique of Demographic Transition Theory by looking at the neighbor provinces in Spain, and he supported the idea that the main determinant for the similar fertility behavior should be the diffusion of cultural values, rather than economic development and levels of urbanization. In this short essay, I will argue that Demographic Transition Theory, which takes socioeconomic development as the primary driver for the decline in fertility, is still more a powerful way to explain it than the critique of Leasure.

To give a very interesting and current example from the book ‘Why Nations Fail’ written by Daron Acemoğlu and James A.Robinson, the first chapter of the book called ‘So Close and Yet So Different’ begins with a comparison of two cities, Nogales Arizona and Nogales Sonora. There is only a fence that seperates these cities, and while Arizona is in the US, Sonora belongs to Mexico. Although people on both sides of Nogales are culturally homogenous in terms of sharing the same ancestors and enjoying the same food and music, their living standards are quite different. While most of the residents of Nogales Arizona are over 65 with a higher life expectancy, population in Nogales Sonora is much younger, with high rates of infant mortality and with a much lower life expectancy, which is worrisome. In spite of relatively high mortality rates, the government promotes population increases in Sonora to sustain level of high fertility throughout Mexico. On the contrary, migration from southern to northern for agricultural fieldwork is main cause of the population growth in Arizona. In other words, population in Arizona is relatively healthy, live longer and have lower fertility rates than Sonora. According to Leasure, since concept of family planning is diffusing faster without communication barriers, areas that share a similar culture are parallel to fertility rates than areas that are culturally less similar. Cultural setting and diffusion of values are better at explaining fertility levels in the neighborhood even though the levels of urbanization and economic development might be different. However, this diffusion theory does not work in the two Nogales’ example. Our expectation would be to observe similar

SOC262Fall 2018 First Assignment Gül 2016300183 şah Suileten

fertility behaviors in these culturally similar areas-in fact they are merely one town in two countries- but that is not the case. Looking at the classical explanation of Demographic Transition Theory, which fits in with two parts of Nogales better, it says that economic changes by industrialization forces a society to alter traditional institutions. As a consequence of many alterations in social instutions, increasing standard of living and improving public health infrastructure causes decline in death rates and birth rates gradually. Demographic differences between these two cities cannot be attributed to cultural factors but socioeconomic ones. People in Nogales Arizona are having access to economic and social instutions of the United States. On the other hand,in Nogales Sonora, people are living in relatively poor socioeconomic conditions which are shaped by different institutions of a different country. This instituonal divergence demonstrates the importance of socioeconomic factors in fertility decline rather than cultural factors.

To conclude, socioeconomic development still looks like a better predictor of transition rather than a cultural explanation. Thus, Demographic Transition Theory is better at explaining the issue with Nogales than Leasure’s critique.

SOC262Fall 2018 First Assignment Gül 2016300183 şah Suileten