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Simulation
Simulation
Agenda
- Problem Outline
- Difference between average demands
- Creating simulated demands
Problem Background
You are the operator of a new airline, SaskAir, a counterpart to Air Alberta. decision making aims to predict their profits for the upcoming year. Current plan to offer flights between Saskatoon, SK and Salt Lake City, Utah. You ha determined that a competitive price for these flights is $300. You currently plane that seats 100 passengers and based on current conditions it is expec cost $21,600 for the flight, no matter how many passengers there are on bo
Provided for you is a list of a trial of 100 flights that were ran between July October 31, 2005.
Question 1
Q1: What is the average number of passengers who flew with the airline an is the standard deviation for passengers per flight? What was the average p
per flight during the trial period?
Homework Hint: Considering the mean and standard deviations are 85 and 11 respective
demand to set up your model:
Weekday Average 86 St deviation 12
a) Why can we not use the simulation for Q1 as our average profit calculatio the 100 passenger plane option?
See answer at bottom
b) Why are the average and standard deviation numbers not the same as w calculated in Q1?
See answer at bottom
c) What is the average profit for the different planes? What is the min and m profit for the different planes? What plane size do you suggest?
Simulating Demand for one flight:
Determine passenger load:
Is demand met?
Now we calculate income from the flight:
There is no row input, and for column input we just select any blank cell on active worksheet.
All that's left is to calculate the average profits from the simulation for the t different sized planes.
To find the min and max we can manually look through or we can use the m max functions with conditional formatting.
Conditional Formatting:
We will go through using the demand for the plane with a capacity of 100. F will select the range that we want Excel to evaluate which is the demand simulated for the 100 plane. Then selection conditional format which is foun Format --> Conditional Formatting
What looks like the better plane size using the average profit - the 100 or 1 capacity plane?
Answers:
a) We cannot use the simulation for Q1 to calculate Q2 because the number passengers has been frozen and we do not have the formula that was used create the simulation. This is a problem because we need to adjust the form remove the ceiling restricting the amount of passengers to less than or equa
b) We cannot use the previous average calculated because this is the averag number of passengers on the plane and not the average demand. Demand fo a different distribution curve. Remember that the plane has a max capacity
