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A field exam for the economic demography course at the university of california, berkeley. It includes five questions related to the economic effects of births and immigrants, the impact of income on fertility and marriage, bequest wealth, and the use of quasi experimental research designs in social sciences. The exam also includes a simulation of a stable population based on the life table for the u.s. Cohort of women born in 1900.
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Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley June 8, 2007
Field Exam for Economic Demography
Please answer all parts of all questions. The four numbered questions count equally in the grade. Cite the literature where appropriate. You have three hours. The points allocated to each question are indicated in parentheses, summing to 100. You should allocate your time accordingly. You may use a calculator.
(25) Some analysts and policy makers are concerned about the effects on the national economy of incremental births, both in industrial nations and in Third World countries. Others are concerned about the economic effects of immigrants on a receiving country. Discuss ways in which you would expect these effects to be similar, and ways in which you would expect them to be different. Your answer might include discussion of fiscal impacts, labor market impacts, long run growth, and effects on the utility of the native population. Your answer should be a creative and coherent synthetic essay rather than a laundry list of all possible effects.
(15) Discuss the effect of secularly rising income on fertility and marriage according to relevant economic theories.
a. According to Becker, why should rising income lead to reduced fertility, other things equal (including women’s wages)? b. Explain how marriage might be motivated by considerations of efficiency in production and consumption. c. Supposing such efficiency were the only reason for marriage, might income gains lead to a decline in marriage? d. Would you expect the decline in fertility induced by income growth to affect marriage probabilities?
(10) Consider two children, otherwise similar, one enjoying a more prosperous childhood, while the other receives a larger bequest later in life. Discuss the implications for their health over the life cycle, drawing on relevant literature.
(25) Analysts have become increasingly sensitive to the problems of identifying causal relationships using the kinds of data typically available to social scientists. For each of these topics -- health, fertility, and population-economic development – briefly describe one study that uses a quasi experimental research design to draw causal conclusions. For each study state whether you find it convincing and discuss the reasons why or why not.
(25) In a study of bequest wealth, several Berkeley demographers have attempted to simulate a stable population based on the life table for the U.S. cohort of women born in 1900 and a rate of growth chosen on theoretical grounds. Table A shows the
number of women 10 Kx in each ten-year-wide age group in this simulated stable population, along with the person-years-lived column from the life table used in the simulation. The final two columns show the proportion of women in the age group who have received their first bequest and the proportion who have received their last bequest.
Table A. Results from a Simulation of Stable Population Transfers
Age Population (^) n Lx % with some % with all Count bequest bequests 0 644 8.4501 .009. 10 631 8.0992 .048. 20^629 7.7820^ .193^. 30 597 7.4839 .350. 40 548 7.1604 .615. 50 530 6.6012 .788. 60 449 5.6223 .932. 70 302 3.9594 .966. 80 139 1.8308 1.000. 90^20 0.3588^ 1.000^ 1.
a) If the 10 Kx values actually fit a stable population perfectly, what would the formula for them be in terms of the 10 Lx values? How would you estimate a value of Lotka’s intrinsic rate of natural increase from the data on the pair of agegroupsfrom10 to and from 20 to 30? What would the estimate be?
b) Extend your method to calculate an estimate of Lotka’s r based on the four age groups starting at ages 30, 40, 50, and 60. Do the results indicate that the researchers have been reasonably successful in simulating a stable population?
c) Can you estimate the expectation of life at birth from the information you have been given? If you can, please do so. If not, explain what other information you would need.
d) Can the method of singulate mean ages be applied with the kind of data given in Table A to find the singulate mean age at receiving a first bequest for women who ever receive some bequest? If so, what is that singulate mean age?
e) Based on your general knowledge of demographic and economic trends, what would you expect the corresponding singulate mean age at receiving a first bequest to be for women of your own cohort in the U.S.A.?