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This report presents North Carolina’s greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, a detailed accounting of GHGs emitted or stored by key source categories from 1990 to 2017. In addition, the inventory projects North Carolina’s GHG emissions from 2018 to 2030 based on forecasted changes in fuel use, land use, population, historical trends, and other factors.
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North Carolina Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory
This report presents North Carolina’s greenhouse gas (GHG) inventory, a detailed accounting of GHGs emitted or stored by key source categories from 1990 to 201 7. In addition, the inventory projects North Carolina’s GHG emissions from 2018 to 2030 based on forecasted changes in fuel use, land use, population, historical trends, and other factors. GHGs are air pollutants as defined by a United States Supreme Court decision and subject to regulation by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under the Clean Air Act.^1 In the report body, only select years are presented; however, estimated GHG emissions data for all analysis years, from 1990 to 2030, are summarized in Appendix A. The methods used to prepare the North Carolina inventory are based on those used to prepare the Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990- 201 6 (U.S. Inventory), annually published by EPA.^2 The U.S. Inventory includes estimates of historic anthropogenic emissions of GHG sources and carbon sinks by source category, economic sector, and GHG pollutant type starting from 1990 for the entire country.^3 It is calculated using methodologies consistent with those recommended in the 2006 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (IPCC Guidelines).^4 The use of consistent methodologies ensures that GHG inventories prepared by states and other entities are comparable.
The North Carolina historic and projected emissions inventory presented here estimates emissions of the six primary GHG pollutants listed below.^5 (^1) Massachusetts et al. v. Environmental Protection Agency et al ., U.S. Supreme Court, 549 U.S. 497, April 2, 2007, https://www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/06pdf/05-1120.pdf. (^2) Draft Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks: 1990-2016, EPA 430-P- 18 - 001, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., February 6, 2018. (^3) Carbon sinks are natural or artificial reservoirs that accumulate and store a carbon-containing chemical compound (generally CO 2 ) for an extended period, such as the growth of newly planted trees in a sustainably managed forest. (^4) 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories, The National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Programme, The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan, 2006, https://www.ipcc- nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/. (^5) These six compounds are being reported under the U.S. GHG reporting program. For information on each compound, see https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/overview-greenhouse-gases.
North Carolina Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Executive Summary carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) methane (CH 4 ) perfluorocarbons (PFCs) nitrous oxide (N 2 O) sulfur hexafluoride (SF 6 ) Emissions of each GHG are reported using the common metric “CO 2 equivalent emissions (CO 2 e).” This approach normalizes the emissions of the various GHGs to reflect the global warming potential (GWP) of each compound with CO 2 as a baseline.^6 Using a common metric allows the quantity of each GHG compound emitted to be compared on the same basis. It also allows emissions of each GHG compound to be summed together to show the total impact of GHGs. For instance, it allows CH 4 emitted from landfills to be compared to the aggregate of CO 2 , CH 4 and N 2 O emitted from power plants. Appendix B contains a discussion of GWPs.
North Carolina’s GHG emissions inventory covers all GHG sources and carbon sink categories that are included in the national inventory prepared by EPA and are representative of activities occurring in our State. This includes emissions from Combustion Processes, Industrial Processes, and Waste Management activities. 7 It also includes fugitive emissions from Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution systems, Agriculture Operations, and from Land Use activities such as fertilization and forest fires. Lastly, the emissions inventory includes estimates of the indirect emissions associated with Imported Electricity consumed in North Carolina but generated outside the State. North Carolina’s GHG inventory does not include coal, oil, and gas production, cement manufacture, lime manufacture, ammonia production, nitric acid production, adipic acid production, magnesium production, and the production of the refrigerant chlorodifluoromethane (HCFC-22) because these activities do not occur in the State. With additional refinements in emissions estimation methods, it may be possible for future inventories to include a broader scope of indirect emissions beyond Electricity consumption.^8 The Land Use, Land Use Changes and Forestry (LULUCF) sector is the net sum of all CH 4 and N 2 O emissions to the atmosphere from activities on natural and working lands plus the net change in the carbon stocks for each year. Changes in the growth, decay, storage, and use of the carbon-based stocks on North Carolina’s natural and working lands, often referred to as carbon flux, are estimated for both the historic and projected emissions inventory in the LULUCF (^6) For more information on global warming potential, see https://www.epa.gov/climateleadership/atmospheric- lifetime-and-global-warming-potential-defined. (^7) Combustion processes include burning of coal, natural gas, fuel oil, biomass, and other fuels for electricity generation, process heat, space and water heating, and onroad and non-road transportation, and other combustion processes in the State. (^8) Indirect emissions are generated in other states from activities associated with goods consumed in North Carolina (see further discussion in Appendix D).
North Carolina Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Executive Summary Carolina Division of Waste Management. The data sources used to estimate emissions are documented in Section 3.0 of this report. A discussion of the uncertainty associated with the default data available in the SIT is located in each SIT module under the tab labeled “Uncertainty.”^11 A discussion of the uncertainty associated with the data and methodology used outside of the SIT is available upon request.
The projection of the GHG inventory includes all sectors that were estimated for the historic inventory. The projection represents a single reference case for future GHG emissions. No future year scenarios are included in the projections since potential scenarios have not been quantified at this time. This reference case projection will be used to evaluate the impact of future scenarios with policies, programs, or rules that increase or decrease emissions. There is uncertainty in this reference case projection due to EPA’s potential replacement of several regulations involving GHG emissions including; 1) fossil fuel power plant CO 2 emissions, 2) landfill CH 4 emissions 3) corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for vehicles, and 4) phasedown of HFCs under the Montreal Protocol.^11 ,^12 The reference projection still includes the emissions reductions from these regulations, except for Electricity Generation. The Electricity Generation projection does not include any regulation of CO 2 emissions in the future since this regulation has already been removed from the forecast for this sector. Future inventories will incorporate any final regulatory changes. As stated above, future decreases in GHGs through various mitigations strategies that may be employed by North Carolina are not included. Mitigation strategies along with their impact to net GHG emissions will be evaluated separately to estimate GHG reduction potential in a future year. Examples of mitigation strategies that may be evaluated include; 1) increase in the use of renewable energy, energy efficiency, and storage, 2) increase in the use of electric vehicles, 3) livestock manure management, and 4) sequestration of carbon by natural and working lands.
Table 1-1 summarizes the estimates of North Carolina’s historical and projected GHG emissions and carbon sinks from 1990 through 2030.^13 Some important details about the table are listed below. (^11) The Montreal Protocol's charter is to save the upper atmosphere ozone layer that protects from the sun’s ultraviolet rays that cause skin cancer (see U.S. Department of State, “The Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer,” https://www.state.gov/e/oes/eqt/chemicalpollution/83007.htm, accessed May 2018.) (^12) https://www.epa.gov/laws-regulations/epa-deregulatory-actions (^13) The data for all years are presented in Appendix A.
North Carolina Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Executive Summary
North Carolina Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Executive Summary
North Carolina Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory Executive Summary
The remainder of this report is divided into two sections. The first section is an analysis of the key economic sectors and a discussion of the trends in North Carolina’s GHG sources and sinks. The second section discusses the methodologies and data sets used to prepare the estimates, including key assumptions and limitations. Appendix A provides a tabulated summary of each year of GHG emissions from 1990 to 2030. Appendix B provides a brief overview of global warming potentials and Appendix C discusses the treatment of CO 2 emissions from biomass combustion. Appendix D summarizes comments received on the draft Inventory report during the public comment period, which was open between November 2nd^ and December 14th^ of 2018. This Appendix also provides responses to these comments and a description of the appropriate method used to modify the inventory.