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Mathematical Modeling of Population Growth: MATH 190 - Prof. Erin K. Mcnelis, Assignments of Computer Science

Information for a university mathematics course, math 190, on mathematical models of population growth. Students are required to fill in values on a state diagram for a population of possums, calculate the number of possums in each age group using matlab, and find the eigenvalues of the leslie matrix. Additionally, there is a problem about the spread of mono on a college campus, which involves creating difference equations and simulating the interaction between susceptible and infected students using vensim.

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Uploaded on 08/16/2009

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MATH 190 - Mathematical Models of Population Growth
Due by 5 p.m. Friday, November 9, 2007
Name:
1. The following table lists reproduction and survival rates for the female population of possum in the
United States. Suppose possums give birth only once a year, which dictates a natural time step of
one year. Due to natural life span and traffic possums seldom if ever live longer than 5 years, which
gives a natural stopping point for the age classes.
Birth and Survival Rates for Female Possums
Age (years) Birth Rate Survival Rate
0 - 1 0.0 0.6
1 - 2 1.3 0.8
2 - 3 1.8 0.8
3 - 4 0.9 0.4
4 - 5 0.2 0.0
Let Arepresent the number of possums in the 0-1 year age group; Bthe number of possums in the
1-2 year age group; Cthe number of possums in the 2 - 3 year age group; Dthe number of possums
in the 3 - 4 year age group; and Dbe the number of possums in the 4 - 5 year age group.
(a) [20 points] Fill in the values on the state diagram that models this situation. Make sure to label
your components neatly and put your name on the paper.
(b) [30 points] Using MATLAB, calculate the number of female possums in each age group and in
total for the years indicated below and fill those values in the appropriate columns of the chart.
Round your answer to the ONE DECIMAL PLACE.
Age Initial After After After After After
Group Year 1 Year 2 Years 11 Years 12 Years 13 Years
A(0 - 1) 194
B(1 - 2) 82
C(2 - 3) 55
D(3 - 4) 22
E(4 - 5) 6
Total
Female 359
Population
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MATH 190 - Mathematical Models of Population Growth Due by 5 p.m. Friday, November 9, 2007

Name:

  1. The following table lists reproduction and survival rates for the female population of possum in the United States. Suppose possums give birth only once a year, which dictates a natural time step of one year. Due to natural life span and traffic possums seldom if ever live longer than 5 years, which gives a natural stopping point for the age classes.

Birth and Survival Rates for Female Possums

Age (years) Birth Rate Survival Rate 0 - 1 0.0 0. 1 - 2 1.3 0. 2 - 3 1.8 0. 3 - 4 0.9 0. 4 - 5 0.2 0.

Let A represent the number of possums in the 0-1 year age group; B the number of possums in the 1-2 year age group; C the number of possums in the 2 - 3 year age group; D the number of possums in the 3 - 4 year age group; and D be the number of possums in the 4 - 5 year age group.

(a) [20 points] Fill in the values on the state diagram that models this situation. Make sure to label your components neatly and put your name on the paper.

(b) [30 points] Using MATLAB, calculate the number of female possums in each age group and in total for the years indicated below and fill those values in the appropriate columns of the chart. Round your answer to the ONE DECIMAL PLACE.

Age Initial After After After After After Group Year 1 Year 2 Years 11 Years 12 Years 13 Years

A (0 - 1) 194

B (1 - 2) 82

C (2 - 3) 55

D (3 - 4) 22

E (4 - 5) 6

Total Female 359 Population

(c) [5 points] Use the command eig(L) to find the eigenvalues of the Leslie matrix (we’ll talk about these in class next week).

  1. Suppose there’s an outbreak of mono on WCU’s campus, which has a total population of 9055 students, and 25 students come back to school with mono after the weekend. We’ll assume the following facts about the spread of the virus: - 1/28 of the students with mono recover each day (because mono usually lasts 28 days); - mono is spread when an infected person has close contact with a susceptible person; - 0.08% of all possible interactions between an infected and a susceptible person occur on a given day; - of the infected - susceptible interactions that occur each day, only 5% of those lead to the transmission of mono

Let S(n) represent the number of susceptible students after n days and I(n) represent the number of infected (with mono) students after n days.

(a) PART ONE: i. [10 points] Give the system of TWO difference equations (one for S(n) and one for I(n)) that models the spread of mono on campus.

ii. [10 points] Use Excel to help you create an appropriately labeled and titled graph of the two populations, and put that graph on the spreadsheet. Adjust your horizontal axes so that the min is 0 and the max is 100. (b) PART TWO: i. [20 points] Now use Vensim to simulate the interaction between the two populations. An illustration has been given on how to start your model.

ii. [5 points] Click on the Comment Button on the Vensim panel, then click in the white space of your model and type your name. Save your Vensim model as “Your Name SI Model.mdl”, submit it to the class WebCT site.