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Steven F. Hipple
hipple.steve@bls.gov
Steven F. Hipple is an economist in the Office of
Employment and Unemployment Statistics, U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Labor force participation: what has happened
since the peak?
The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the
civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older that is
working or actively looking for work. It is an important labor
market measure because it represents the relative amount
of labor resources available for the production of goods and
services. After rising for more than three decades, the
overall labor force participation rate peaked in early 2000
and subsequently trended down. In recent years, the
movement of the baby-boom population into age groups
that generally exhibit low labor force participation has
contributed to the decline in the overall participation rate.
From 2000 to 2015, most of the major demographic groups
saw a decrease in labor force participation. Teenagers
experienced the largest drop in participation, which
coincided with a rise in their school enrollment rate. Young
adults 20 to 24 years also showed a decline in labor force
participation, but the decrease was not as steep as that for
teenagers. The labor force participation rate of women 25
to 54 years also fell, with the decrease more pronounced
for women who did not attend college. The labor force
participation rate of men 25 to 54 years continued its long-
term decline. As in the past, the decrease in participation among men with less education was greater than that of
men with more education. However, labor force participation rates of men and women 55 years and older rose
from 2000 to 2009 and subsequently leveled off.
The labor force participation rate is the proportion of the working-age population that is either working or actively
looking for work.^1 This rate is an important labor market measure because it represents the relative amount of labor resources available for the production of goods and services. Though subject to some cyclical influences,
labor force participation is primarily affected by longer-term structural changes.^2 These might include changes in the age composition of the population, school enrollment and educational attainment, employer-provided pensions,
or Social Security benefits.
September 2016
After trending up for more than three decades, the labor force participation rate peaked at 67.3 percent in early
- Over the next few years, the rate receded to about 66 percent and stayed at that level through 2008. The
participation rate then dropped again, and by mid-2016, it stood at 62.7 percent. (See figure 1.)
This article describes historical trends in labor force participation on the basis of estimates from the Current
Population Survey (CPS), and it focuses on the participation rate since its peak in 2000. It examines changes in
labor force participation among major demographic groups and discusses possible reasons for these changes.
Change in the age profile of the population
The age distribution of the population can strongly influence overall labor force participation. Figure 2 shows the
change in the civilian noninstitutional population by major age group since 1948. For seven decades, the aging of
the baby-boom generation—people born between 1946 and 1964—has profoundly affected the population’s size
and composition. For example, the population 16–24 years increased from 21.5 million in 1962 to 36.7 million in
- From 1971 to 2000, the large population cohort 25–54 years grew from 70.9 million to 120.7 million. After the
oldest baby boomers turned 55 in 2001, the population 55 years and older rose from 58.7 million in 2001 to 87.
million in 2015.
From 2000 to 2015, the labor force participation rate of teenagers varied considerably by race and ethnicity. (See
table 1.) In 2000, the participation rate ranged from 35.8 percent for Asian teenagers to 55.5 percent for White
teenagers. Between 2000 and 2015, the participation rate of teenagers in each of the four major race and ethnicity
groups fell sharply, with 2015 rates ranging from 20.6 percent for Asian teenagers to 36.4 percent for White
teenagers. The decline in teenage labor force participation during this period coincided with a rise in the school
enrollment rate—that is, the proportion of the population enrolled in school.
Group 2000 2015 Change, 2000– Total, 16 to 19 years Total 52.0 34.3 –17. White 55.5 36.4 –19. Black or African American 39.4 28.1 –11. Asian 35.8 20.6 –15. Hispanic or Latino 46.3 30.9 –15. Total, 20 to 24 years Total 77.8 70.7 –7. White 79.9 72.7 –7. Black or African American 71.8 68.2 –3. Asian 63.0 52.8 –10. Hispanic or Latino 78.2 71.6 –6. Men, 25 to 54 years Total 91.6 88.3 –3. White 92.7 89.5 –3.
Table 1. Labor force participation rates of selected groups, by race and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, annual averages, 2000 and 2015
See footnotes at end of table.
Note: Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Between 2000 and 2015, the school enrollment rate of teenagers increased from 77.2 percent to 82.3 percent.^5 (See figure 4.) The rising school enrollment rate among teenagers could have contributed to their falling labor force
participation rate, because those enrolled in school are much less likely to participate in the labor force. From 2000
to 2015, the labor force participation rate of teenagers enrolled in school fell from 41.8 percent to 25.5 percent.
Group 2000 2015 Change, 2000– Black or African American 84.4 80.9 –3. Asian 91.7 89.2 –2. Hispanic or Latino 92.5 90.8 –1. Women, 25 to 54 years Total 76.7 73.7 –3. White 76.8 73.9 –2. Black or African American 78.9 76.5 –2. Asian 71.3 67.8 –3. Hispanic or Latino 67.6 66.3 –1. Men, 55 years and older Total 40.1 45.9 5. White 40.3 46.4 6. Black or African American 36.0 39.9 3. Asian 46.6 50.6 4. Hispanic or Latino 45.2 51.2 6. Women, 55 years and older Total 26.1 34.7 8. White 25.9 34.5 8. Black or African American 27.0 34.7 7. Asian 29.2 37.6 8. Hispanic or Latino 24.0 33.3 9.
Table 1. Labor force participation rates of selected groups, by race and Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, annual averages, 2000 and 2015
Although school enrollment rates of teenagers and young adults have increased substantially over the past several
decades, enrollment rates of young adults have remained lower than the rates of teenagers because many young
adults have completed their formal education. As figures 4 and 5 show, only 38.5 percent of young adults were
enrolled in school in 2015, compared with 82.3 percent of teenagers.
As was the case with teenagers, the labor force participation rate of young adults enrolled in school was lower than
that of young adults who were not in school. The labor force participation rate for both groups fell between 2000
and 2015. The labor force participation rate of young adults enrolled in school fell from 64.2 percent in 2000 to
51.0 percent in 2015, whereas the participation rate of young adults not enrolled in school edged down from 84.
percent in 2000 to 83.0 percent in 2015. (See figure 5.) During the same period, the proportion of young adults
enrolled in school rose from 32.2 percent to 38.5 percent.
Of young adults who were neither enrolled in school nor participated in the labor force in 2015, 61 percent were
women and 20 percent had less than a high school diploma. The labor force participation rate of young women not
enrolled in school and with less than a high school diploma was only 52.6 percent, or 23.7 percentage points lower
than the rate for their male counterparts. (See table 2.) The lower participation rate of young women could reflect
that some were caring for young children. In 2015, 49 percent of women 20–24 years who were not enrolled in
school and had less than a high school diploma were mothers, and 24 percent of women in this age group who
were not enrolled in school and had a high school diploma or more were mothers. In 2015, only 7 percent of
women 20–24 years enrolled in school were mothers.
Between 2000 and 2015, individuals with less education generally had the largest declines in labor force
participation. At all levels of educational attainment, the labor force participation rate of young men who were not
enrolled in school was higher than that of their female counterparts. (See table 2.) The gap in participation rates
between young men and women narrowed at higher levels of educational attainment. Among people with at least a
bachelor’s degree who were not enrolled in school in 2015, young women had a labor force participation rate of
90.7 percent, compared with 93.4 percent for their male counterparts.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Women 25–54 years
The participation rate of women 25–54 years increased throughout the second half of the 20th century, although
the pace of the increase varied over time. (See figure 6.) The most rapid rise in women’s labor force participation
occurred during the 1970s and 1980s. The participation rate of women 25–54 years peaked at 76.8 percent in
- Subsequently, the participation rate receded slightly and flattened at 75.5 percent from 2003 to 2009. It then
declined to 73.7 percent in 2015, still above the rate in the 1970s and 1980s.
Characteristic 2000 2015 Change, 2000– Men Total, 20 to 24 years 91.2 86.1 –5. Less than a high school diploma 86.7 76.3 –10. High school graduates, no college 91.0 84.7 –6. Some college, no degree 92.8 87.1 –5. Associate’s degree 97.4 92.2 –5. Bachelor’s degree and higher 95.6 93.4 –2. Women Total, 20 to 24 years 77.4 77.3 –. Less than a high school diploma 53.3 52.6 –. High school graduates, no college 77.2 72.6 –4. Some college, no degree 84.1 80.0 –4. Associate’s degree 88.0 84.9 –3. Bachelor’s degree and higher 90.1 90.7.
Table 2. Labor force participation rates of people ages 20 to 24 years not enrolled in school, by gender and educational attainment, annual averages, 2000 and 2015
Between 2000 and 2015, the labor force participation rate of women 25–54 years varied by race and ethnicity.
(See table 1.) In 2000, the participation rate ranged from 67.6 percent for Hispanic women to 78.9 percent for
Black women. From 2000 to 2015, the labor force participation rate of women in each of the four major race and
ethnicity groups declined. The drop in labor force participation was steepest for Asian women (–3.5 percentage
points). In 2015, the participation rate ranged from 66.3 percent for Hispanic women to 76.5 percent for Black
women.
From 2000 to 2015, the labor force participation rate of women was higher among those with more education. (See
table 3.) During this period, the decline in labor force participation was most pronounced for women with less than
a high school diploma (–7.1 percentage points) and for those with a high school diploma and no college (–7.
percentage points). The participation rate of women with at least a bachelor’s degree changed little (–0.
percentage point) over the 2000–15 period. In 2015, among women 25–54 years, the participation rate ranged
from 49.1 percent for those with less than a high school diploma to 82.3 percent for those with at least a bachelor’s
degree.
Gender by year
Less than a high school diploma
High school graduates, no college
Some college, no degree
Associate’s degree
Bachelor’s degree and higher Men 1995 79.5 91.2 92.3 94.8 96. 2000 82.1 90.7 91.9 93.9 95. 2005 82.0 89.1 90.6 93.2 94. 2006 82.7 89.0 90.7 93.0 95. 2007 82.7 89.1 91.0 93.3 95. 2008 82.3 88.7 90.4 93.1 95. 2009 81.2 87.6 89.4 92.2 95. 2010 81.0 87.1 88.6 92.0 94. 2011 80.6 86.1 87.5 91.1 94. 2012 79.3 86.0 87.7 91.5 94. 2013 79.3 85.4 87.5 91.4 94. 2014 79.6 85.0 86.8 91.0 94. 2015 79.5 84.8 87.3 91.6 93. Change 1995– 2000 2.6^ –.5^ –.4^ –.9^ –. 1995– 2015 0.0^ –6.4^ –5.0^ –3.2^ –2. 2000–15 –2.6 –5.9 –4.6 –2.3 –1. Women 1995 50.9 74.0 78.5 83.1 84. 2000 56.2 74.9 78.8 83.3 82. 2005 53.1 72.5 76.7 82.6 82. 2006 53.0 72.7 76.9 82.1 82. 2007 52.4 72.1 77.0 82.7 82. 2008 52.0 72.2 77.2 82.8 83.
Table 3. Labor force participation rates of people ages 25 to 54 years, by gender and educational attainment, annual averages, selected years, 1995–
See footnotes at end of table.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Mothers whose youngest child was under 18 years old
As figure 8 shows, the labor force participation rate of mothers whose youngest child was under 18 years old
increased steadily during the 1970s and 1980s. This steady increase contributed to the rise in women’s overall
participation during this period. Although the 1990s saw small gains, the labor force participation rate of mothers
whose youngest child was under 18 years old peaked at 72.9 percent in 2000 and subsequently receded.
Gender by year
Less than a high school diploma
High school graduates, no college
Some college, no degree
Associate’s degree
Bachelor’s degree and higher 2009 52.7 71.7 76.2 82.6 83. 2010 52.2 71.5 75.8 81.6 82. 2011 51.6 70.2 74.8 81.6 82. 2012 51.7 69.3 73.9 81.4 82. 2013 49.9 68.4 73.0 80.0 82. 2014 49.3 68.2 73.4 79.6 82. 2015 49.1 67.0 73.4 79.6 82. Change 1995– 2000 5.3^ .9^ .3^ .2^ –1. 1995– 2015 –1.8^ –7.0^ –5.1^ –3.5^ –2. 2000–15 –7.1 –7.9 –5.4 –3.7 –.
Table 3. Labor force participation rates of people ages 25 to 54 years, by gender and educational attainment, annual averages, selected years, 1995–
In 2000, among those 25–54 years, the participation rate of Black men was 84.4 percent; in contrast, the rates for
Asians, Whites, and Hispanics were in the low 90s. (See table 1.) The participation rate of men in each of the
major race and ethnicity groups declined between 2000 and 2015. The declines were somewhat larger for White
and Black men (–3.2 percent and –3.5 percent, respectively). In 2015, the participation rate of Black men, at 80.
percent, remained considerably lower than the rates of men in the other major race and ethnicity groups.
As was the case with women, men with more education were more likely to participate in the labor force. In 2015,
participation rates ranged from 79.5 percent for men with less than a high school diploma to 93.9 percent for men
with at least a bachelor’s degree. (See table 3.) The largest declines in participation between 2000 and 2015 were
among men with a high school diploma and no college (–5.9 percentage points) and those with some college but
no degree (–4.6 percentage points). By comparison, from 2000 to 2015, the decreases in the labor force
participation rate of men with an associate’s degree and those with at least a bachelor’s degree were smaller (–2.
and –1.9 percentage points, respectively).^12
One reason for the large decline in participation among men who did not attend college could be that the types of
jobs available to this group might have become less desirable and lower paying. Among men, inflation-adjusted
wages for those with less than a high school diploma and those with a high school diploma (no college) fell over
the 2000–15 period by 6.8 and 6.6 percent, respectively; by contrast, inflation-adjusted wages for those with at
least a bachelor’s degree edged up by 1.2 percent over this period.^13 Researchers have suggested that employment opportunities of less-educated men have deteriorated in part because technology has changed and
globalization increased.^14
Researchers have suggested that an increase in the number of people receiving Social Security disability
insurance (SSDI) benefits has contributed to the decline in labor force participation among both men and
women.^15 The SSDI program was enacted into law in 1956 and was meant to provide income for people with
severe disabilities who are unable to work.^16 Over time, changes in eligibility requirements for SSDI benefits may
have increased the number of beneficiaries.^17 The number of men 25–54 years who received SSDI benefits rose
from 1.6 million (or 2.7 percent of men in this age group) in 2000 to 2.0 million (or 3.2 percent) in 2014.^18 The
decline in labor force participation of men over this period coincided with the increase in disability recipients.^19
In addition, researchers have suggested that expansion of the Department of Veterans Affairs disability
compensation program might have contributed to the decrease in labor force participation among male veterans.^20 From 2003 to 2015, the veterans supplement to the CPS showed an increase in the incidence of disability. The
number of male veterans 25–54 years who reported a service-connected disability rose from 726,000 (or 9.
percent of this population) in 2003 to 1.5 million (or 24.1 percent) in 2015. The number who reported a severe
disability increased from 134,000 (or 1.7 percent) in 2003 to 492,000 (or 7.9 percent) in 2015.^21 In 2015, the labor force participation rate of male veterans 25–54 years was 86.0 percent, compared with 88.5 percent for male
nonveterans. However, between 2000 and 2015, the drop in the labor force participation rate of veterans (from
89.5 to 86.0 percent) was similar to that of nonveterans (from 92.1 to 88.5 percent).
Women 55 years and older
The labor force participation rate of women 55 years and older increased slightly during the early 1950s before
remaining in a range of about 23–25 percent over the next four decades. (See figure 6.) In 1997, the participation
rate began to rise again, and in 2000, the pace of the increase accelerated. The rate rose from 26.1 percent in
2000 to 34.7 percent in 2009. From 2009 to 2015, the participation rate of women 55 years and older remained
around 35 percent.^22
As mentioned earlier, the oldest baby boomers turned age 55 in 2001, 62 in 2008, and 65 in 2011. Labor force
participation trends closely track age requirements for receiving Social Security earnings benefits.^23 Data show that participation fell substantially when individuals reach age 62 (the age they first become eligible for Social
Security benefits) and again at age 65 (the age they become eligible for full Social Security benefits). In 2015, the
rate for women fell by 4.6 percentage points at age 62 and by 4.8 percentage points at age 65. (See table 4.) For
men, the decreases at age 62 and age 65 were 7.3 percentage points and 6.5 percentage points, respectively. The
rise in the number of baby boomers eligible to receive Social Security benefits may have slowed the increase in
participation of women 55 years and older.^24
Age (years)
Men Women
2000 2015 Change 2000–15 2000 2015 Change 2000– Total, 55 and older 40.1 45.9 5.8 26.1 34.7 8. 55 79.8 80.6 .8 65.2 70.2 5. 56 79.7 78.0 –1.7 64.9 67.6 2. 57 77.9 77.5 –.4 61.8 67.2 5. 58 75.6 76.5 .9 58.4 64.3 5. 59 71.0 72.4 1.4 55.6 62.1 6. 60 66.2 70.3 4.1 51.5 57.6 6. 61 65.9 67.8 1.9 46.4 54.7 8. 62 53.0 60.5 7.5 38.7 50.1 11.
Table 4. Labor force participation rates of persons ages 55 years and older, by single years of age and gender, annual averages, 2000 and 2015
See footnotes at end of table.
Between 2000 and 2015, the labor force participation rate of women 55 years and older differed by race and
ethnicity. (See table 1.) In 2000, the participation rate ranged from 24.0 percent for Hispanic women to 29.
percent for Asian women. Between 2000 and 2015, the participation rate of women in each of the four major race
and ethnicity groups increased. In 2015, the labor force participation rate ranged from 33.3 percent for Hispanic
women to 37.6 percent for Asian women.
From 2000 to 2015, labor force participation of women 55 years and older was greater at higher levels of
education. (See table 5.) Between 2000 and 2015, participation rates rose for women in each of the educational
attainment categories, but the increases were larger for women with more education. In 2015, the participation rate
of women 55 years and older ranged from 16.0 percent for those with less than a high school diploma to 47.
percent for those with at least a bachelor’s degree.
Characteristic 2000 2015 Change, 2000– Men Total, 55 years and older 40.1 45.9 5. Less than a high school diploma 25.3 30.1 4. High school graduates, no college 38.8 41.2 2. Some college, no degree 44.6 46.4 1. Associate’s degree 46.9 50.6 3. Bachelor’s degree and higher 52.6 55.3 2. Women Total, 55 years and older 26.1 34.7 8. Less than a high school diploma 12.7 16.0 3.
Table 5. Labor force participation rates of people ages 55 years and older, by gender and educational attainment, annual averages, 2000 and 2015
See footnotes at end of table.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
Men 55 years and older
One of the most striking labor market trends during the second half of the 20th century was the steep decline in
labor force participation among men 55 years and older. The labor force participation rate of older men decreased
from 70.6 percent in 1948 to 37.7 percent in 1993. (See figure 6.) After remaining flat during 1994–95, the
participation rate began to rise in 1996, and in 2000, the pace of the increase accelerated. The participation rate of
older men rose from 40.1 percent in 2000 to 46.8 percent in 2012. Since 2012, the participation rate of older men
has held steady (around 46 percent). As mentioned previously, the oldest baby boomers recently reached the age
required to receive Social Security retirement benefits, which might have slowed the increase in labor force
participation among men 55 years and older.
Men 55–64 years had much higher participation rates than men 65 years and older. (See figure 11.) From 1985 to
2001, the rate for men 55–64 years held in a narrow range of 66–68 percent; then, during 2001–08, the
participation rate edged up to 70 percent and remained flat through 2015. From 1985 to 1998, the participation rate
for men 65 years and older hovered around 16 percent. However, since 1998, the rate increased gradually and
reached 23.4 percent in 2015.
Among those 55 years and older in 2000, the labor force participation rate was lowest among Black men (36.
percent) and highest among Asian men (46.6 percent). (See table 1.) From 2000 to 2015, the participation rate of
men 55 years and older increased in each of the major race and ethnic groups. In 2015, the participation rate
ranged from 39.9 percent for Black men to 51.2 percent for Hispanic men.
As seen in other demographic groups, men 55 years and older with more education were more likely to participate
in the labor force. In 2000, the participation rate ranged from 25.3 percent for men with less than a high school
diploma to 52.6 percent for men with at least a bachelor’s degree. (See table 5.) The participation rate of older
men in each educational attainment category rose from 2000 to 2015. In 2015, the participation rate ranged from
30.1 percent for men with less than a high school diploma to 55.3 percent for men with at least a bachelor’s
degree.
Some possible explanations for the rise in labor force participation among older men and women since the
mid-1990s are well documented.^26 These explanations include changes to Social Security laws, changes to private retirement plans, increased life expectancy, rising healthcare costs, and increased educational attainment
of older adults.^27
Conclusion
Characteristic 2000 2015 Change, 2000– High school graduates, no college 25.7 28.8 3. Some college, no degree 31.9 36.8 4. Associate’s degree 35.7 43.3 7. Bachelor’s degree and higher 41.4 47.1 5.
Table 5. Labor force participation rates of people ages 55 years and older, by gender and educational attainment, annual averages, 2000 and 2015
Demographic versus cyclical influences on U.S. labor force participation, Working Paper no. 14.4 (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics), July 2014. Economists at the Federal Reserve have published numerous papers on the recent behavior of the labor force participation rate. For instance, one study suggested that much of the drop in labor force participation since 2007 has been due to ongoing structural influences rather than pronounced cyclical weakness related to workers’ discouragement over job prospects. See Stephanie Aaronson, Tomaz Cajner, Bruce Fallick, Felix Galbis-Reig, Christopher L. Smith, and William Wascher, Labor force participation: recent developments and future prospects (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, September 2014), http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/feds/2014/201464/201464abs.html. James Bullard of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis also provided an overview of research on labor force participation; see The rise and fall of labor force participation in the United States (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, First Quarter 2014, 96(1), pp. 1–12, http:// research.stlouisfed.org/publications/review/2014/q1/bullard.pdf. For a detailed analysis of projected changes in the labor force from 2014 to 2024, see Mitra Toossi, “Labor force projections to 2024: the labor force is growing, but slowly,” Monthly Labor Review, December 2015, https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2015/article/labor-force-projections-to-2024.htm.
3 Julie L. Hotchkiss concluded that much of the decline in labor force participation during the 2000s could be explained by changing population shares. See her paper, Decomposing changes in the aggregate labor force participation rate, Working Paper no. 2009-6a (Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, July 2009), https://www.frbatlanta.org/research/publications/wp/2009/06.aspx. For more information on the impact of aging on labor supply, see Bruce Fallick, Charles Fleischman, and Jonathan Pingle, “The effect of population aging on the aggregate labor market,” in Katharine G. Abraham, James R. Spletzer, and Michael Harper, eds., Labor in the new economy (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press, 2010), pp. 377–417, http://www.nber.org/books/abra08-1.
4 Participation rates of both male and female teenagers fell sharply from 2000 to 2015. The rate for male teenagers fell from 52. percent to 34.2 percent; the rate for female teenagers dropped from 51.2 percent to 34.4 percent.
5 Data on school enrollment are from the October monthly Current Population Survey. For more information on employment and school enrollment trends among youth during the summer and school year, see Teresa L. Morisi, “The early 2000s: a period of declining teen summer employment rates,” Monthly Labor Review, May 2010, pp. 23–35, https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2010/05/ art2full.pdf; and Teresa L. Morisi, “Youth enrollment and employment during the school year,” Monthly Labor Review, February 2008, pp. 51–63, https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2008/02/art3full.pdf.
6 See Steven F. Hipple, “People who are not in the labor force: why aren’t they working?” Beyond the Numbers, vol. 4, no. 15, December 2015, https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-4/people-who-are-not-in-the-labor-force-why-arent-they-working.htm.
7 See Aaronson et al., Labor force participation, pp. 23–26.
8 Ibid., p. 26.
9 The decrease in labor force participation from 2000 to 2015 was larger for young men than for young women. The rate for young men fell by 9.6 percentage points, whereas the rate for young women declined by 4.8 percentage points.
10 Robert Drago, “The parenting of infants: a time-use study,” Monthly Labor Review, October 2009, pp. 33–43, https://www.bls.gov/ opub/mlr/2009/10/art3full.pdf.
11 A recent study by economists at the Council of Economic Advisers examined the long-term decline in labor force participation of men 25–54 years. See The long-term decline in prime-age male labor force participation (Executive Office of the President of the United States, Council of Economic Advisers, June 2016), https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/page/files/ 20160620_cea_primeage_male_lfp.pdf.
12 The labor force participation rate of less-educated men has been falling for many years. From 1970 to 2015, the labor force participation rate of men 25‒54 years with less than a high school diploma declined from 93.6 percent to 79.3 percent. The participation rate of men 25‒54 years with a high school diploma and no college fell from 97.6 percent to 85.3 percent during this period. (Data for each year are from the March monthly Current Population Survey.)
13 Wages refer to median weekly earnings of men 25 years and older, in constant 2015 dollars. The change in wages occurred between 2000 and 2015.
14 See David H. Autor and Melanie Wasserman, Wayward sons: the emerging gender gap in labor markets and education (Washington, DC: Third Way, April 2013), http://economics.mit.edu/files/8754.
15 See Aaronson et al., Labor force participation, pp. 234–35; and Robert E. Hall, “Quantifying the lasting harm to the U.S. economy from the financial crisis,” in Jonathan A. Parker and Michael Woodford, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2014, vol. 29 (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press), pp. 71–128.
16 For more information on the history of Social Security disability insurance programs, see A history of the Social Security disability programs (Social Security Administration, January 1986), https://www.ssa.gov/history/1986dibhistory.html.
17 The total number of disabled worker beneficiaries rose from 2.9 million (or 1.7 percent of the working-age population) in 1980 to 9.0 million (or 3.6 percent) in 2014. For an overview of the expansion of the Social Security disability insurance program, see David H. Autor, The unsustainable rise of the disability rolls in the United States: causes, consequences, and policy options, Working Paper no. 17697 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, December 2011), http://www.nber.org/papers/w17697.
18 The number of women 25–54 years who received Social Security disability insurance benefits increased from 1.2 million (or 2. percent of women in this age group) in 2000 to 1.9 million (or 3.0 percent) in 2014. See Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics, Annual statistical report on the Social Security disability program, 2000 (Social Security Administration, September 2001) and Annual statistical report on the Social Security Disability Program, 2014 (Social Security Administration, November 2015), https:// www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/di_asr/index.html.
19 From 2004 to 2014, there were increases in the percentages of men and women 25–54 years who were not in the labor force and who cited illness or disability as the main reason for not working. See Hipple, “People who are not in the labor force.”
20 See Courtney Coile, Mark Duggan, and Audrey Guo, “Veterans’ labor force participation: what role does the VA’s disability compensation program play?” American Economic Review, vol. 105, no. 5, May 2015, pp. 131–36.
21 For more information on the Current Population Survey veterans supplement, see the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics news release, https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/vet.pdf.
22 In a recent study, Alicia H. Munnell suggests that the average age of retirement for women and men has leveled off in recent years; see The average retirement age—an update, Issue Brief no. 15–4 (Boston, MA: Center for Retirement Research, March 2015), pp. 1– 6, http://crr.bc.edu/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/IB_15-4_508_rev.pdf.
23 Since the beginning of 2000, the normal retirement age for receiving Social Security benefits has gradually increased. Traditionally, retirement benefits are first available at age 62, with a reduction for each month that benefits are received before age 65, the age at which individuals are eligible for full Social Security benefits. The normal retirement age was raised as part of the 1983 Social Security reform legislation. The age rises gradually for individuals born in 1937 or later. Currently, the highest normal retirement age is 67 years, for those born in 1960 or later.
24 A recent study focused on the baby-boom generation and its impact on overall labor force participation. See Alicia H. Munnell, The impact of aging baby boomers on labor force participation, Issue Brief no. 14–4 (Boston, MA: Center for Retirement Research, February 2014), pp. 1–6, http://crr.bc.edu/briefs/the-impact-of-aging-baby-boomers-on-labor-force-participation/.
25 For more information on the reasons why women are working longer, see Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz, “Women working longer: facts and some explanations,” in Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz, eds., Women working longer (University of Chicago Press, forthcoming), http://papers.nber.org/books/gold-12.
26 See Michael V. Leonesio, Benjamin Bridges, Robert Gesumaria, and Linda Del Bene, “The increasing labor force participation of older workers and its effect on the income of the aged,” Social Security Bulletin, vol. 72, no. 1 (Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, 2012), pp. 59–77, https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v72n1/v72n1p59.pdf.
27 For a discussion of the history and development of the Social Security program, see Patricia P. Martin and David A. Weaver, “Social Security: a program and policy history,” Social Security Bulletin, vol. 66, no. 1 (Office of Retirement Policy, Office of Policy, November 2005), https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/ssb/v66n1/v66n1p1.html. For an analysis of the impact of Social Security (and Medicare) changes on the labor market, see “Raising the ages of eligibility for Medicare and Social Security,” Issue Brief
