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Technology Foresight Methods: A Comprehensive Guide to Predicting Technological Trends, Slides of Computer Science

tech foresight details for the assignment

Typology: Slides

2019/2020

Uploaded on 12/08/2020

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Download Technology Foresight Methods: A Comprehensive Guide to Predicting Technological Trends and more Slides Computer Science in PDF only on Docsity!

Technology foresight

methods

General terms

  • (^) Weak signal
    • (^) Early signs of change which are currently very small
  • (^) Wild card
    • (^) High-impact event that is usually considered infeasible or incredible
    • (^) Sometimes known as black swan events

Horizon scanning – what is it

  • (^) Detect early signs of important technological developments
    • (^) Beginnings of the internet
    • (^) First computer virus
  • (^) Systematic examination of threats and opportunities offered by new technology
  • (^) Determine:
    • (^) What is constant?
    • (^) What changes?
    • (^) What is constantly changing?

Horizon scanning - challenges

  • (^) How do you expect the unexpected?

Horizon scanning - challenges

  • (^) Need to challenge past assumptions People want to access websites on their phones But what if there were an increase in cyberattacks?

Horizon scanning - challenges

  • (^) How do you expect the unexpected?
  • (^) How do you determine what technology developments are important? - (^) Many different factors in whether a development is taken up

Delphi method – what is it?

  • (^) Named after the “Oracle of Delphi”
  • (^) Brings together expert opinion on a specific issue - (^) Yes: “Will touch-screens for mobile phones become obsolete?” - (^) No: “What is the future of communications?”
  • (^) Structured and iterative process of brainstorming

Delphi method – challenges

  • (^) Expert opinions can be wrong!
    • (^) “Heavier than air flight is not possible” – President of Royal Society, 1895
    • (^) “There is a world market for maybe 5 computers” – IBM Chair, 1993
    • (^) “The internet will […] in 1996 spectacularly collapse” – 3Com founder, 1995
    • (^) “Two years from now, spam will be solved” – Bill Gates, 2004
  • (^) Can be hard to resist peer pressure
  • (^) Need a variety of opinions – people with the same background often think alike
  • (^) Extrapolate historical data into the future
    • (^) “The future will look like the past”
  • (^) Then modify this with predictions about the future
  • (^) The basis for prediction is the “surprise-free” future
  • (^) Each potential change then modifies this
  • (^) A change has two dimensions: impact and likelihood - (^) Both must be considered

Trend impact analysis – what is it?

Trend impact analysis – challenges

  • (^) It can be difficult to estimate the likelihood of a disruptive event
    • (^) Probability of war?
    • (^) Probability someone is developing a new phone OS?
  • (^) But (less obviously) it can also be difficult to estimate the impact
    • (^) If someone develops a new type of game, will we want more games like this?
      • (^) … or will we get bored of them?
  • (^) How can we be sure we’ve considered all disruptive events?
  • (^) What if two of these cancel each other out?

Scenario planning – what is it?

  • (^) Scenarios are visions of future possibilities
  • (^) Each scenario postulates a different future
  • (^) Scenarios typically focus on specific topics within a specific country
    • (^) Mobile phone usage in Nigeria
    • (^) Future of US warfare
  • (^) Scenario planning participants focus on the different experiences possible for a variety of people in each scenario
  • (^) Who benefits in this scenario? Who loses?

Scenario – challenges

  • (^) Requires the scenarios to be developed using expert opinions and existing methodologies
  • (^) Scenarios involve a host of different factors
    • (^) Economic, sociological, educational, governmental…
    • (^) Can be difficult to make sure all of these are covered!
  • (^) What is a positive outcome?
    • (^) Development of a new popular photo social media app?
    • (^) … may bring in a lot of revenue
    • (^) … but not so good if you are the founder of Instagram!

Modelling and simulation – what is

it?

  • (^) Using a computer to model a particular trend or sequence of events
  • (^) Typically used to predict “what happens next”
  • (^) Requires a mathematical representation of the problem to be formulated
  • (^) The mathematical representation is known as the model
  • (^) Computers can then be used to run simulations, e.g.
    • (^) Determine what will happen in the model in 10 years time
    • (^) Determine what the effect would be if a single parameter were changed