Technology foresight
methods
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Technology Foresight Methods: A Comprehensive Guide to Predicting Technological Trends, Slides of Computer Science
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Technology foresight
methods
General terms
- (^) Weak signal
- (^) Early signs of change which are currently very small
- (^) Wild card
- (^) High-impact event that is usually considered infeasible or incredible
- (^) Sometimes known as black swan events
Horizon scanning – what is it
- (^) Detect early signs of important technological developments
- (^) Beginnings of the internet
- (^) First computer virus
- (^) Systematic examination of threats and opportunities offered by new technology
- (^) Determine:
- (^) What is constant?
- (^) What changes?
- (^) What is constantly changing?
Horizon scanning - challenges
- (^) How do you expect the unexpected?
Horizon scanning - challenges
- (^) Need to challenge past assumptions People want to access websites on their phones But what if there were an increase in cyberattacks?
Horizon scanning - challenges
- (^) How do you expect the unexpected?
- (^) How do you determine what technology developments are important? - (^) Many different factors in whether a development is taken up
Delphi method – what is it?
- (^) Named after the “Oracle of Delphi”
- (^) Brings together expert opinion on a specific issue - (^) Yes: “Will touch-screens for mobile phones become obsolete?” - (^) No: “What is the future of communications?”
- (^) Structured and iterative process of brainstorming
Delphi method – challenges
- (^) Expert opinions can be wrong!
- (^) “Heavier than air flight is not possible” – President of Royal Society, 1895
- (^) “There is a world market for maybe 5 computers” – IBM Chair, 1993
- (^) “The internet will […] in 1996 spectacularly collapse” – 3Com founder, 1995
- (^) “Two years from now, spam will be solved” – Bill Gates, 2004
- (^) Can be hard to resist peer pressure
- (^) Need a variety of opinions – people with the same background often think alike
- (^) Extrapolate historical data into the future
- (^) “The future will look like the past”
- (^) Then modify this with predictions about the future
- (^) The basis for prediction is the “surprise-free” future
- (^) Each potential change then modifies this
- (^) A change has two dimensions: impact and likelihood - (^) Both must be considered
Trend impact analysis – what is it?
Trend impact analysis – challenges
- (^) It can be difficult to estimate the likelihood of a disruptive event
- (^) Probability of war?
- (^) Probability someone is developing a new phone OS?
- (^) But (less obviously) it can also be difficult to estimate the impact
- (^) If someone develops a new type of game, will we want more games like this?
- (^) … or will we get bored of them?
- (^) If someone develops a new type of game, will we want more games like this?
- (^) How can we be sure we’ve considered all disruptive events?
- (^) What if two of these cancel each other out?
Scenario planning – what is it?
- (^) Scenarios are visions of future possibilities
- (^) Each scenario postulates a different future
- (^) Scenarios typically focus on specific topics within a specific country
- (^) Mobile phone usage in Nigeria
- (^) Future of US warfare
- (^) Scenario planning participants focus on the different experiences possible for a variety of people in each scenario
- (^) Who benefits in this scenario? Who loses?
Scenario – challenges
- (^) Requires the scenarios to be developed using expert opinions and existing methodologies
- (^) Scenarios involve a host of different factors
- (^) Economic, sociological, educational, governmental…
- (^) Can be difficult to make sure all of these are covered!
- (^) What is a positive outcome?
- (^) Development of a new popular photo social media app?
- (^) … may bring in a lot of revenue
- (^) … but not so good if you are the founder of Instagram!
Modelling and simulation – what is
it?
- (^) Using a computer to model a particular trend or sequence of events
- (^) Typically used to predict “what happens next”
- (^) Requires a mathematical representation of the problem to be formulated
- (^) The mathematical representation is known as the model
- (^) Computers can then be used to run simulations, e.g.
- (^) Determine what will happen in the model in 10 years time
- (^) Determine what the effect would be if a single parameter were changed