Pakistan is beset by critical resource shortages.
Water bodies are drying up, electrical power
outages are rife and arable land is disappearing.
Such deficiencies make the great abundance
of another important Pakistani resource – its
population – all the more striking.
In an era increasingly marked by ageing and
contracting populations, Pakistan’s is young
and rising. Currently about 180 million, it is
projected to reach 275 million by 2050. However,
if fertility rates remain steady, this figure could
soar to 380 million. Two-thirds of the nation’s
population are under the age of 30, a third is 14
or younger, and the median age is 21. The 15-
to-24 years age bracket is projected to spike by
20% in the 2020s.
With millions reaching working age over the
next few decades, demographics will be a
major determinant of Pakistan’s development
trajectory. If these young masses are properly
educated and absorbed into the labour force,
the impoverished nation could finally attain a
measure of prosperity. Infusions of new labour
would galvanise Pakistan’s key sectors –
including the powerful textile industry, the up-
and-coming IT field and housing construction,
already in high demand. A new generation of
engineers and scientists could unlock the vast
potential of the country’s underground mineral
reserves – largely untapped, yet estimated to
be worth trillions of dollars.
Alternately, if Pakistan’s young masses are
not educated and fail to get jobs, and if fertility
rates are not significantly reduced, then the
nation’s existing problems will likely deepen.
Natural resource shortages could become
scarcities; teeming cities could collapse from
a lack of services and security; and legions of
disillusioned and unemployed young people
could add to the already swelling ranks of
extremists.
With Pakistan’s future tied to the fate of
its mushrooming population, a timely new
volume edited by the Woodrow Wilson Center,
Reaping the Dividend: Overcoming Pakistan’s
Demographic Challenges, examines what
Pakistan must do to bring about a favourable
demographic outcome for itself – and why
attaining such an outcome constitutes such a
formidable challenge.
An initial step toward improving Pakistan’s
demographic scenario is simply to raise
awareness – among Pakistani policymakers and
the general public alike – about the country’s
population issues. Outside of occasional
conferences and the obligatory speech on World
Population Day, demographic matters have
largely been neglected in Pakistan. Zeba Sathar,
a Pakistani demographer, writes in Reaping the
Dividend that “at no point has serious attention
been devoted [in Pakistan] to studying Pakistan’s
large population numbers, their distribution,
and the implications they hold for the country’s
development, politics, and ultimate stability”. To
redress this neglect, government ministries with
population-related portfolios should be obliged to
release annual status reports on new policies and
be held accountable for the results. Pakistan’s
government and media can play advocacy
roles by issuing public statements about the
importance of family planning, and reporting on
the urgency of demographic challenges and the
need to act.
Pakistan must also invest more in human
development. In order to overcome its
population challenges, the country must make
its masses healthier, better educated and more
employable.
Health: Chief among the country’s human
development needs is improving women’s
reproductive health. According to one
contributor to Reaping the Dividend, investing
more in family planning could save hundreds of
millions of dollars and several million lives.
Schooling: Educational challenges can be
addressed by forming a non-partisan task force
charged with developing a universal education
plan – one that pledges to attain universal
primary school enrolment within a five-year
period. Reaping the Dividend argues that
Pakistanis – especially girls – are more likely
to make responsible decisions about family
planning and birth spacing if they are sufficiently
educated.
- 2 -
docsity.com
