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FA..LLOUT HELTERS
I A Study o Des Moines,^ Iowa
I Gerald E. Kionglan D
George M. Beal
I Joe M. Bohlen P/
Final Report Contract No. OCD-OS.62- 150 ... ~eearch Subtash 4811 -D
ISubmitted to. Office of Civil Defense, Office of the ecretary of the Army, The Pentagon, Was^ *ngton,^ D. C.
USociological Studies^ inCivil^ Defense^ Project^ odors^ George^ M.Beal^ and^ Joe^ M.Bohlen^ ...^ Associate^ Director:^ Gerold^ E. Kionglan
IOWA AGRICULTURAL AND HOME ECONOMICS XPERIMENT STATION .... IOWA STATE IVERSITY of Science and Technology
Ames, Iowa.. 1964
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FAMILY ADOPTION OF PUBLIC FALLOUT SHELTERS
A Study of Des Moines, Iowa
Gerald E. Klonglan George M. Beal (^) R - - CC Joe M. Bohlen
Iowa Agricultural and Home Economics Experiment Station Project (^) No. 1529 Sociological Studies (^) in Civil Defense Proje.t Directors: George M. Beal and Joe M. (^) Bohlen Associate Director: Gerald E. Klonglan in cooperation with Office of Civil Defense Office of the Secretary of the Army Contract No. OCD - OS - 62 - 150 Research Subtask 4811-D
OCD REVIEW NOTICE
This report has been reviewed by the Office of Civil Defense and approved for (^) publication. Approval does not signify that the contents necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Office of Civil Defense, A limited number of copies of this report is available to qualified requestors from the Defense Document Center, Cameron Station, Alexandria, Virginia 22314.
Rural Sociology Report No. 30 Iowa Agricultural and Home Economics Experiment Station Iowa State University (^) of Science and Technology Ames, Iowa
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Of special relevance (^) is the adoption model applied to individual decision- making.
In Chapter 3 the adoption model conceptualized in Chapter 2 is applied to the civil defense innovation of using public fallout shelters if there is a nuclear attack. In it the methodology used to determine an individual's adoption stage with respect to the idea of using public fallout shelters is described. (Readers who are responsible for implementing other civil defense ;dtcs ,b irivctks may want to attemDt to aDolv the adoption model to their ideas or innovations to gain insights into how the adoption model may be operationalized for different civil defense situations.) Chapter 4 is a general introduction to the research data and findings presented in this report. In Chapter 5 the study findings pertaining to an individual 's stage of adoption, rate of adoption, and adoption period are presented. The relationships between four categorie- of factors (demographic, knowledge, attitudinal, and sources of information) ind an individual's adop- tion of an innovation (using a public fallout shelter if there is a nuclear attack) are discussed in Chapters 6, 7, 8, and 9. !n Chapter 6 the relation- ships of twelve demoaraDhic variables and adoption are discussed. The re- lationships of thirteen knowledQe variables and adoption are analyzed in Chapter 7. The relationships of thirty-five attitudes and adoption are pre- sented in Chapter 8. In Chapter 9 the relationship of source of information and adoption is discussed. These substantive data and find'ngs may be used by OCD when planning, implementing, or evaluating activities related to the fallout shelter marking and stocking program. Also, the substantive data and findings may provide insights into adoption behavior relat.J to civil ddfense which can be taken into account when planning other current and con- templated civil defense programs. Chapter 10 is a brief summary of the report.
The authors wish to acknowledge the research contribution of Elmer Schwieder in supervising the collection of data for this study, and that of Karla Allen in supervising the coding and data analysis necessary for this report. Special appreciation is expressed to Mr. Ralph Garrett of the Office of Civil Defense for many helpful suggestions and continuing interest and administration liaison during the course of this project.
Table of Contents
L Page j Preface..****..****.. (^).****.****.****... ..****....****.****.****..****.****....****... .i
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Table of Contents (Continued)
Page Sex of Respondent ............... (^) ......................... 62 Summary of Chapter 6 ............ ............... (^) ... 64 Chapter 7. Knowledge and Stage of Adoption .... (^)........ 66 I nt roduct (^) Ion. ..... ....... ........................... 66
A Civil Defense Program In the United States........... 67
Knowledge (^) of a City (Local) Civil Defense Program......... (^) 68 Civil Defense (^) Technical Knowledge ....................... 70 Statement (^) 1. If you get exposed to radiation at all, you are sure to die .... .............. (^74) Statement 2. (^) If someone has radiation sickness, you should avoid getting near him so you
won't c.a%. ;L yourself .. ............. 75
Statement 3. A plastic suit with filtering mask is plenty of protection against fallout.... 76 Statement 4. You cannot see fallout .... ........... (^) ... 77 Statement 5. After a nuclear attack, if you filter the dust out of the (^) air, the air will be safe to breathe ... ................ 78 Statement (^) 6. There is a new pill you can take that will protect you against radioactive fallout .......... ............. (^).. 79 Statement 7. A failout shelter shoulc have an air- tight door (^) to guard against radiation..... 80 Statement 8. Fallout (^) from just one bomb may cover thousands of square miles......... .. 81 Statiment 9. Most fallout rapidly loses Its power to (^) harm people................ 82
Summary of Chapter 7.....................
Chapter 8. Attitudes and Stage of Adoption............ .. 86
Introduction......... .... ...................... (^).. 86 An Individual's Perception of the Situation: Perception of Threat........................ (^).. 89 Likelihood of war....... 0 * 0. 0. *****. 0. a 90 Timing of war............... (^)........ 91
Likelihood of conventional war ................ 92
Likelihood of war escalation. (^)................ 93 ULkelihood of fallout danger to local conmnity ;n time of war (^). ................. 94
Table of^ Contents^ (Continued)
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Chapter I I NTRODUCT ION
3ackg round The Berlin crisis of August 1961 gave a climactic impetus to expansion of the civil defense program in the United States. During the summer months of 1961 civil defense (^) became a nati-anal concern. It became a concern for the highest levels of government and for the genera! public. The President gave a public speech on civil defense. Civil defenJp was considered (^) in relation to foreign policy and defense policy. Civil defense became a topic of dis- cussion throughout the general public as mass nedia information sources began to carry discussions of the perceived advantages and disadvantages of possible alternative civil defe,,se programs (^) for fallout rhelters. Some individuals and groups were opposed to all programs. Others argued the need for an (^) ex- panded fallout shelter program but disagreed on the means, (^) for example, public versus private fallout shelters.
Planning an Expanded Civil Defense Program The administration proposed an expanded civil defense program in 1961. The major components of the program were- a national fallout (^) shelter survey, me"4lng, and stocking program; a shelter incentive program (also called the Shelter Development Program); a program for (^) building shelters in federal btldlngs; a program for developing warning and dete,.tion devices; a program for emergency operations; an expanded program of providing financial assis- tance to states ind localities; (^) and a greatly expanded research program. Congress did not appropriate funds for the proposed (^) Shelter Development Pro- gram for fiscal years 1962, 1963, or 1964 but did allocate considerable funds (compared to pre-1961 allocations) for the other spe.ified programs. T -re has been little change in program orientation in the administrative proposals
if 1962, 1963, 1964 and 1965,
Fallout Shelters as the Basic Concept The primary concern of the civil defense program was that of providing fallout shelters for all of the nation's population as rapidly as possible and at the least possible cost. The new federal civil defense program's objective was to develop a fallout shelter^ space^ for^ every^ person^ in^ the United States by 1967. The projection made in^^1962 was^ for^^235 million shelter spaces to be developed as follows: 70 million spaces through the National Fallout Shelter Survey. 100 million spaces through the proposea Shelter (^) Incentive (Development) Program. 5 million spaces by incorporating shelters In federal buildings. 60 million spaces (^) through private initiative by industry, institutions, home owners, and others not eligible for federal monetary grants for shelter construction. Because funds were (^) not allocated for the Shelter Development Program in fiscal years 196?, 1963, 1964, and because public, rather than private, fall- out shelters became the immediate goal of the Office of Civil Defense (OCD), the cornerstone of the new civil defense program (^) became the National Fallout Shelter Survey, Marking, and Stocking Program. The objective of this program was to locate, mark, and stock suitable fallout shelters for the largest portion of the nation's population as quickly and as economically as possible. These shelters would be used as public fallout shelters. Another goal of OCD was to make people awaE of these buildings and to encourage (^) people to M Dlans for utilizing these public fallout shelters in case of nuclear attack.
Evaluating the Expanded Civil Defense Program An evaluation of the expanded civil defense program can be done in many different ways. The programs and activities carried out by the Office of Civil Defense are (^) numerous and complex. One source of data which can be used In evaluating some of the accomplishments of civil defense programs Is the Annual Reort of J Office fCivil Defense. This report presents a statistical description of the many civil defense activities and the changes which have occurred from previous years. Another and more specific source of data which can be used for evaluating civil defense activities is the monthly publication Selected Stat.st.c on Fallout Shelter P. In this
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1. Attend Medical Self-Help Training courses
- Attend Civil Defense Adult Education courses 3. Become trained as^ radiological^ monitors
- License their buildings 5. (^) Train for fire fighting 6. Train for Shelter Management 7. Train as communication (^) experts 8. And so on through the many civil defense tasks.
Idea Adoption and Behavior Adoption The distinction between the adoption of ideas and the adoption of overt behavior patterns is important in delineating (^) what OCO desires people to adopt. In some cases OCD may desire that people adopt an idea. For example, OCD Is currently (^) marking and stocking public fallout shelters across the nation. Current licensing contracts state that shelter space in buildings is not to be used unless there is an attack. Thus, OCD wants the general public to adopt the (^) idea of using a public fallout shelter even though at present they cannot go through behavior adoption, that is, go to a public fallout shelter and try it out. The adoption of an idea may be perceived as symbolic adoption. One concern of the Office of Civil Defense may be the extent to which the adoption of an idea, such as using public fallout shelters, will persist in the mind of an individual. Will individuals maintain their adoption franework over time or will they become non-adopters? (^) There is a need for a periodic assessment of the state (^) of people's idea adoption so trends and patterns of symbolic adoption may be delineated and analyzed. In other cases OCO may desire that people adopt .behavri at the present time. For example, OCO wants a portion of the people to attend radiological monitor training schools. In this case people not only have to jp jj jj of being trained as a radiological monitor but also have to behave in order to become trained, that is, (^) physically go to and attend classes.
1 5 OCO as a Change Agent In the above discussion the authors have implicitly assumed that^ OCD^ is a chanqe agent. A chang j is a professional person (or group) who attempts to influence the adoption delisions of other individuals (or groups) in a direction that he believes is desirable. It is assumed that OCD as a change agent is Interested in understanding and predicting how people will adopt new civil (^) defense ideas. Th!s involves a clear and detailed under- standing of the factors related to the acceptance or rejection of these new Ideas. OCD is also Interested in the Inter-relationships among the various factors related to adoption. The change agent can use insights about these factors in planning, implementing, and evaluating future adoption programs. A change agent is also concerned with what has happened to his program In the g= and where things stand now, so he can plan for the future. For example, OCD may ask the following questions:
1. What is the current level of public adoption of civil defense^ ideas and programs given our^ past^ level^ of^ resource^ inputs^ and^ methods?
- How can these data be used as^ a^ basis^ for^ planning^ future^ activities? Insights into the current adoption rate and factors affecting it will be helpful to both OCD policy-makers and operators. Policy-makers can use the Information in sgttinLq Q and allocating resources. Operators can use the Information to help analyze information methods used in the past and to help plan Information Drograms for thl future.
Objectives of this Report Three general objectives provide the framework for the civil defense re- search presented in this report. The chronology of these objectives is as follows. The first objective Is of a theoretical and methodological nature: to develop an analytical frame of reference which can be used for planning, implementing, and evaluating civil defense prorams which have as their primary
I objective the obtaining of the adoption of new ideas, innovations, or programs by individuals in specified target audiences. Within the analytical frame developed in objective one, the second objective of this research Is to deter- mine the extent to which a sample of people has adopted the idea of using
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1 7 Individuals may rapidly adopt Ideas and behavior that would assure civil 3defense the accomplishment of its ends. (^) From a slightly different point of view It would also appear to be very valuable for civil defense to under- 3 stand the enviro~ntal factors kwbiLh ยง .Lh individual so civil defense can better plan its program strategy. The research data presented in this report may be used as an input by several different categories of OCD personnel. The research should provide a clearer pr'oblem denintion of the process of (^) adoption and delineate many germane factors related to the process. The research is in part (^) an evalu- ation of a civil defense program carried out during the past three years. It should be possible (^) to derive implications from the findings which can be used In planning future activities related to public fallout shelters. 3 Implications for planning and implementing other existing and contemplated civil defense programs may also be ascertained from research data presented 3in this report.
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Chapter 2 FRAMEWORK :FOR ANALYSIS
Int roduct ion Civil defense is a relatively new change agent in the United States. Only since 1950 has a civil (^) defense organization been concerned with communi- cating (^) information to various individuals and groups throughout the United States. And only since 1961 has the Department of^ Defense^ -^ Office^ of^ Civil Defense been the primary change agent for implementing civil defense (^) ideas and programs. Businesses, governmental agencies, educators, and many others, however, have been in change agent roles for many years. The rapid scientific devel- *= opment of new ideas, practices, (^) and products since 1900 has generated con-
- siderable research dealing with the question of h (^) poe adopt new ides. A large body of literature has been generated which (^) focuses on the adoption and diffusion of new ideas, practices, and products. (^) Adoption is a micro concept referring to an individual 's acce (^) ange of an idea, practice, or product. Diffusion is a macro concept referring to the spread of an idea, practice, or product through the whole of a potential (^) audience, market, or social system. A number of different academic disciplines (^) have conducted research on the (^) adoption and diffusion proesses. Rural sociologists, In- dustrial sociologists, medical (^) bociologists, anthropologists, educators, and mass communication researchers have studied adoption and diffusion. The major goal of this research has beel to better understand (^) individual adoption behavio, so social (^) structures and communication programs might be more efficient a~d effective. In this report only some of the concepts developed in (^) this research tradition (^) will be introduced. Specifically, this report will focus on the Indiv~dual's (^) adoption of new ideas rather than on the diffusion of new ideas among individuals.
Innovation By****. vt is meant an Idea, (^) practice, or product perceived as new
by the individual or group for whom It is intended. OCO Innovations include
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and persuasion must be used in many cases^ to^ get^ new^ innovations^ accepted by state and local civil defense personnel. Other key adoption units for OCD include Senators and Representatives as^ individuals^ and^ Senate^ and House committees as groups. Numerous other OCD adoption units could be delineated. The adoption unit which is the focus of^ study^ in^ this^ report is an individual (husband or wife) in a family household.
Adoption as a Process The adoption process is the mental process through which an individual passes from first hearing about an innovation to its final adoption. A study of the adoption of an innovation is essentially a study of individual decision-making. It is also one example of how any type of learning takes place. When writers in the. adoption-diffusion research^ tradition^ use^ the concept "Adoption Model" they^ are^ usually^ referring^ to^ the^ adoption^ process as described in this section of the report. One may conceptualize an individual's decision to adopt an innovation as R process composed of^ stages.^ The^ adoption^ of^ a^ specific^ innovation^ Is
usually not the result of a single decision to act but rather the result of a series of actitns prefaced by thought decisions. By dividing the adoption process into stages it is possible for the change agent (OCD in this case)
to assess the extent to which an^ individual^ has^ proceeded^ in^ his^ decision- making about a specific innovation. It also makes it possible for the change agent to^ determine^ what^ kinds^ of^ appeals^ and^ information^ he^ needs^ to^ communi- cate, since individuals at different adoption stages usually need different kinds of information. Past researchers have most frequently divided the adoption process (^) into five stages: (1) awareness, (2) Information, (^) (3) evaluation, (4) trial and (5) adoption. It may be noted that these five stages begin to analyze uehavior only after a person is aware of an idea. It is obvious that if the change agent wants to account for all the people in a social system there is another category of people, those uIlDr of the Idea. However, major concern here is with the five stages from awareness to adoption. Each of the stages is defined btlow.
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AwarenU Itag
I At this stage the individual is initially exposed to the innovation. The individuai knows of the innovation but lacks complete informetion about it. The individual may or may not be motivated to seek additional informa- tion about the Innovation at this stage. I I nfomation stag
The individual becomes interested in the innovation and seeks more Information about it. In this stage the individual mainly increases his information about the innovation. The individual is interested in getting both general and more specific information about the intrinsic qualities of the innovation and relating this information to his past experiences and knowledge. At this stage he is building up a data base which will help him to decide whether or not he^ wishes^ to^ become^ further^ involved^ with^ the Innovation.
The Individual is concerned with applying the innovation to h;s own situation at this stage. The relative advantages and disadvantages of the Innovation to other alternatives are considered. The individual makes a I mental application of the innovation to his present and future situation and makes the decision either to try it or not. He is concerned with deter- mining if adoption of this innovation will help him to maximize his goals to a greater degree than will any of the other alternatives which are per- ceived to be available to him.
Tria stage this stage the individ,al (^) is motivated to use (^) the innovation on a small scale in order to determine its utility in his own situation. When possible, most potential adopters use an innovation on a small experimental
scale to test its applicability and compatability to their situations.
