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IR 1/19/16
Evaluating the Validity of ATI Exams for Predicting MCCC Registered Nursing Course and
Program Outcomes
Concurrent validity refers to the extent to which the results of a particular test or measure correspond
to those of a previously established measure of the same construct. Both measures are taken at the
same point in time. For example, how well does an automated measurement of blood pressure
correspond with a manual cuff measurement? Predictive validity refers to the extent to which the scores
on a particular measure (predictor) correspond with the actual construct they are designed to predict
(criterion). The criterion is measured at a later time. For example, how well does a nursing entrance
exam predict first-semester program performance?
Method
To determine the utility of using ATI exams to predict MCCC registered nursing course and program
outcomes, student data were tracked on ATI subject matter exams, ATI exam retakes, the ATI
Comprehensive Predictor Exam, course grades, overall GPA, and the National Council Licensure
Examination (NCLEX). The ATI subject matter exams are intended to have concurrent validity in
predicting course outcomes, as well as predictive validity in determining NCLEX readiness. The ATI
Comprehensive Predictor Exam is intended to have predictive validity in predicting NCLEX performance.
Passing the NCLEX is necessary for state licensure.
Fall 2012 (N = 29) and Winter 2013 (N = 30) nursing cohorts were examined for a period of two years.
The graduation rate within this two-year period was 62.1% (N = 18) for the Fall 2012 cohort, 33.3% (N =
10) for the Winter 2013 cohort, and 47.5% for the data combined. The limited cohort sample size and
program attrition warrant viewing these findings as a preliminary analysis.
To test the concurrent validity of the ATI subject tests, each one was correlated with a course(s) that
covered the same topic (e.g. mental health). Overall GPA was used instead of a course grade when ATI
content was identified as being covered throughout the program. ATI subject matter exams were
administered at the end of each course. Students scored <1, 1, 2, or 3 (most proficient) on each ATI
exam and also received a percentage score. The levels are described by ATI as being produced by nurse
educator content experts. While levels correspond with slightly different percentage scores across tests,
an example of the level – percentage correspondence for RN Adult Medical Surgical Test can be found in
Table 1.
Table 1
RN Adult Medical Surgical 2013 Form Proficiency Correspondence
ATI Proficiency Level
NCLEX Standard
ATI Proficiency Percentage
Level 3
Likely to Exceed
81.1% - 100.0%
Level 2
Fairly Certain to Meet
68.9% - 80.0%
Level 1
Just Likely to Meet
56.7% - 67.8%
Below Level 1
Significant Risk
0.0% - 55.6%
