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CounterurbuniKttion in the (ireater^ Toronto Areu

Counterurbanization In The Greater Toronto Area

By

Andrew iW. Peters,^ B.A'^ (Hons)

A Thesis

Subrnitted to^ the Sr;liool^ of^ Graduate^ Studies

in Partial^ Fulfilment of the^ Requirements

for the Degree^ of

L4uster oJ^ Arts

McMaster Universitv

Septeniber' i

MASTER OF ARTS^ (1998)^ McMaster University (Geography; Hamilton,^ Ontario

TITLE: Counterurbanization^ in the Greater^ Toronto^ Area

AUTHOR: Andrew^ Nf. Peters.^ B.A.^ (Hons) NlcMaster^ universitv SUPERVISOR: Dr.^ Pavlos^ Kanaroglou NO. OF PAGES I

Abstract

It was the main objective of this particular thesis to deterrnine whether the

experiences of^ the Greater^ Toronto^ Area^ with^ respect^ to patterns in the^ redistribution^ of

its population,^ were similar to those in urban areas of other developed nations around the

globe. dthough a plethora of studies were carried out relating to the counterurbanization

phenomenon during the late (^) seventies and early eighties in these other countries, to this

point few have been carried out in a Canadian context. In light of this, in completing this

thesis. first, we hope to contribute to the literature by highlighting patterns^ of population

distribution in the GTA from 1971-91, utilizing the hoover index of concentration as the

primary means of doing this. The results suggest a pattern of population redistribution

away from the core, favouring municipalities peripheral^ to this area. Second, through

careful consideration of the key criticisms put forth relating to the study of the

counterurbanization phenornenon, we have determined the validity of each in tenns of the

extent to which they would affect the observed trends in the distribution of the GTA's

populations. The results of this analysis offer evidence in support of the 'metropolitan

overspill' hypothesis which interprets these trends in the redistribution of population

away from^ the core as the continuation of the process^ of suburbanisation,^ only^ an

accelerated level^ of the phenomenon. Finally, in^ realizing the importance^ of^ studying

economic actir,'ity alongside any trends in the redistribution of population,^ analvsis of data

from the Transportation Tomorrow Surveys of 1986, 9l, & 96 has been completed. Once

again, we find the results of this analysis lend additional support to the 'metropolitan

overspill' hypothesis.

iii

TABLE OF CONTENTS

t.0Introduction l.l Reseurchprohlent

L2 Methods of^ AnulYsis

1.2 I^ Snrcly 1.2I2 Greuler^ ttrea Toronto Areu Profile

L22 Data

1.22I Populutittrt ctncl^ Areo^ Dqta

1.222 Census Data

I. 2 2 3'fransportcttion Trttttorrov' Smvcys

1.3 MethodologY 2.0 Background

2.I Literilure reYiew

2. I Countcrurhunizution

2.11 The Debate

2. 12 Measurement Issues 2.13 DeveloPed Nations 2.14 Temporary AnomalY
   2. 15 Towards ExPlanation

2. l6 Conclusions

Page

s.0 Counterurbanization 3.I Existcnce of^ the^ phewtntenon^ within^ the Greuter Toronto^ Area^ (1971'1991)^43

3. I I Utilizing the^ Hoover Index^ of^ Concentration

3.12 The GTA^ Overall

3.13 The Regional ExPeriences 3.14 Regions^ as Subsets

3. 1 5 DescriPtive Statistics 3. l 5 | Municipal Outliers in terms of overall change in concentration levels -

r97l-9r 3.16 Core^ vs. PeriPhery

I J

ll

l

3.2 O'verbounding the^ core^ (urea^ #2)

3.21 Inclusion^ of^ Census^ subdivisions^ adjacentto^ Metropolitan^ Toronto

3.22 Regional ExPerience 3.23 Core vs. PeriPhery

3.3 Metropoliton overspill^ (area #3)

3.31 The Experience of the Toronto^ (-lL4A t's'^ Peripherl' ('rntnh',^ 3.32 The Regions of^ Northunrberlancl,^ Peterborough, trlictoria^ CounO',^ Dtffirirt

Simcoe, Wellington^ Ctnmtv^ snd^ Humiltrn'

3.33 Municipal Outliers (2)

3.4 Cll{A vs.^ CA^ vs.^ Otlrcr

3.41 Area vs. PoPulation 3.42 Population Growth^ Rates 3 43 The^ Hoover lndex of^ Concentration

4.7 Core vs.^ Periqhery

4.21 Core Origin/Core^ Destined

4.?2 Core -^ PeriPhery^ ActivitY 4.23 Lnter corellnterperiphery Trips 4.3 | The Perip^ heral/Mu^ nicipal^ Euperiences 4.32 Additional^ Activit-v 4.33 Influence of^ the^ Metropolitan^ Core 4.4 Sustuinuble 4.4 I Jobs-Housing Balance^ Settlenrents^ -^ Breheny's Indices

4.42 Self-Containment 4.421 Indices Independence & Retention

5.0 Conclusions

58

60

66

85

104

18-8. Proportions of Population -^ CMA's, CA's^ &^ Other

19. Rate of Population^ Change^ -^ l97l-

20. Hoover Index -^ CMA's

21. Hoover lndex -^ CA's^ and^ Other

22. TTS^ Planning^ Districts

23. Trips with^ Core^ Origin^ -^ Metropolitan Toronto

24. Trips From^ Core^ to^ PeriPhery

25. Inter-core^ ActivitY

26. Municipal^ Proportions^ of^ Core-Periphery^ Activity

27. Additional Core-Periphery^ Activity

28. Percentage^ of^ Trips^ with^ Core^ Origin

68 70

7l

72 79 80 83 84 86 88 90

vlll

LIST OF^ TABLES

Title Page

l. Core Originating Work Trips^ as^ aYo^ of^ the^ Total^ With Municipal^ Destination^91

2. Percentage^ of^ Total^ Work Trips Having^ an^ Origin Within^ the^ Core^92
3. Indices of^ Balance^ -^ 1986-96^99
4. Indices^ of^ Self-Containment^ -^ 1986-96^103

ix

nation's settlement patterns"(p.17). In making such a statement, Berry triggered ongoing

debate amongst academics interested in the phenomenon as to whether these trends do in

t'act represent the fall of urbanization as the dominant trend amongst developed nations.

While some went as far as labelling these developments 'a clean break with the past',

critics explained these newly (^) discovered trends (^) as nothing more than the 'accelerated outward growth^ and overspill of metropolitan (^) areas' into their exurban surroundings,

dismissing it as merely the continuation of the suburbanisation process.

Although the existence of the counterurbanization phenomenon was conirrmed in

many developed nations around the world, to this point few studies have attempted to

study counterurbanization in a Canadian context. In light of this, it is our main objective

to study the existence or absence of the phenomenon in a Canadian context. Following

this, we will turn our attention to the controversy surrounding the 'clean break'

hypothesis proposed by Vining and Strauss (1977). If a'clean break' with past trends is

to be recognized in Canada. then our analysis must demonstrate that we have experienced

growth beyond the commuting (^) shed of the metropolitan (^) core. In comparison (^) to the aforementioned issues, (^) explanations have received

considerably less attention. Although numerous explanations have been put forth, any

attempt at a single explanation (^) would appear simplistic due to (^) the fact that reasons for the

reversal are multifaceted and incompletely understood to this point. Sant and Simons

(1993) state that "it is difficult, if not impossible to establish the primacy of any single

cause...". Instead, authors tend to group respective explanations into exclusive categories,

trying to make sense of the many explanations offered. One of the more popular methods

3

of categorizing for example, is to group^ factors according to economic and non-economic

criteria. Although without doubt, a variety of factors are involved, the one widely

excepted viewpoint^ is the importance^ of studying economic activity alongside any shifts

in population. Although^ shifts in population^ may appear counterurban, the level of economic ties^ to^ the^ core^ could^ either remain constant or simultaneously be increasing. Therefore although people^ are increasingly choosing to reside outside the core, its

dominance in terms of economic activity may not be jeopardized.^ In light of this, it is our

final objective to study the redistribution^ of economic activity with the intentions of

demonstrating whether these ties to the core are diminishing alongside any shifts in

population.

1.21 Study area

Although a plethora^ of studies on counterurbanization exist for^ numerous

developed nations around the globe, literature in relation to the Canadian experience has

been somewhat lacking^ in^ comparison. In response to the request^ by^ Joseph^ et^ al^ (1988),

for more detailed studies in relation to the existence of the phenomenon^ in Canada, the

main objective of this analysis has been to determine both the extent and development of

counterurban tendencies in a Canadian context. The Greater Toronto Area (GTA)^ is the

centre of a wide range of activities" including industry, business, non-profit and cultural

organizations, social^ services, research and recreation. Therefore, along with^ representing

1.2 Methods of^ Analvsis

Figure I Primary StudJt Area - The GTA.

o.ooo3 o o.ooog 06

Miles

N

6

what is now one of Canada's most prominent urban areas, the Greater Toronto Area. ln

1940 the city itself housed approximately 650,000, while the urbanized region counted

well over 900,000. In i953, Metropolitan Toronto was officially established. As a result

of its location, historical growth, transit availability, diversified business activities, and

traditional monocentric (^) urban structure, development remained focussed on the inner (^) core

of Central Toronto for many years. Following this, residential and employment areas

surrounding the core then began to grow (^) becoming the suburbs of the 1950's (^) and 1960's,

which eventually would develop into intermediate centres of employment and

commercial activities. With the exception of the late seventies, Toronto continued to

afrract migrants from other regions of Canada as well as streams of immigrants from

overseas (Lemon,^ 1991). As a result, the urban area experienced growth along the major

transportation networks of Yonge Street, Highway #401 and the Queen Elizabeth Way

(Q.E.W.) (^) as a more polycentric (^) urban structure (^) began to develop.

Alongside the rapid growth in population, Toronto also experienced a level of

household growth which actually 'outstripped' the growth of population and tamily units.

therefore reducing the average number of persons per dwelling unit (Miron, 1977).

According to the previous author, this decline in average household size can bd mainly

attributed to three trends. First, the rise of the one person household, which in 1976

approximately two thirds of all households in the GTA were of this type. Second,

decreasing average family size and finally, the increasing tendencies of families to avoid

sharing a household with other persons or families. Evidence of the latter can be obtained

from census data on 'households by family composition', for the census years between

8 Greater Toronto Area, (^) spanning the Lake Ontario between Stoney Creek (^) and Newcastle

and north to Lake Simcoe, contained over 4.5 million people, nearly half the population

of Ontario. The majority of this population, 3.7 million, resided within the Toronto

Census Metropolitan Area (CMA), a geographical unit whose boundary has changed over

time to reflect (^) the spatial extent (^) of the local labour market. Althoueh (^) the six

municipalities comprising Metropolitan Toronto still accounted for nearly 50% of this

population in 1991, between 1981 and lggl,this proportion significantly decreased. This

trend can at least partially be explained as a result of the significantly higher growth rates

of rapidly developing peripheral municipalities during the same time period.

l.22TheData

1.221 Pooulation and Area Data

The primary^ source of data which will be utilized for the demographic analysis

has been extracted from a pre-existing database labelled 'ONTPOP', created specihcally

for the type of analysis which will be completed for this thesis. 'ONTPOP' is an arc-info

based boundary ftle, consisting of population and area data for 1036 census subdivisions

within Ontario, for the census years 1986 and 1991. Each census subdivision within the

database had previously^ been coded by a value of 1,2 or 3, identifuing it as being part of a

'census Metropolitan Area', 'census Agglomeration' or'other' classification

respectively. In respect of the unique circumstances and experiences of Indian Reserves

in terms of migration, population (^) developments (^) and economic activity, these particular census subdivisions (^) were not given (^) one of the previous classifications (^) and therefore were

9 excluded (^) from (^) the analysis. 1.222 (^) Census (^) Data

A second source of data which is of equal importance for the demographic

analysis' is the (^) census data on populations collected (^) at (^) the rever (^) of the (^) census (^) subdivision.

For each of the census years 1971 ,'76, and 1981, population figures were recorded in a

spreadsheet (^) format.

In addition, certain records within 'oNTPoP' required editing as the database was

incomplete (^) or (^) in some (^) cases (^) required (^) updating. (^) Therefore, (^) population (^) information for these (^) records was also obtained (^) from the Statistics (^) canada (^) census publications. 1.223 (^) TTS Dota The (^) Transportation (^) for (^) Tomorrow survey (TTS), (^) was (^) the first (^) area-wide survey (^) of

its kind since the 1964 Metro Toronto Area and Region Transportation Study

(MTARTS). Each TTS has been completed as part of a comprehensive program to

monitor and study travel patterns in the GTA. For each household surveyed, information

regarding (^) attributes of the household, residents (^) of the (^) household (^) and, (^) tripsmade on the

day previous to that of the survey by household members, have been collected for a

stratified sample' Following the completion of the collection phase, each record was then

given an expansion factor to represent the total population in the GTA, defined as the

ratio of the number of TTS household samples to census dwelling units in an aggregation

district' The first TTS was conducted in 1986, and since that time has been the primary

source of information for transportation pranning in the GTA.

The survey of 1986 was completed with hopes that it would be the first of an