Download Time Series and Forecasting: Terms and Definitions and more Quizzes Introduction to Business Management in PDF only on Docsity!
Time Series
A set of observations of a variable measured at successive points in time or over successive periods of time TERM 2
Forecast
DEFINITION 2 A projection or prediction of future values of a time series TERM 3
Time series method
DEFINITION 3 Forecasting methods that is based on the use of historical data that are restricted to past values of the variable we are trying to forecast. TERM 4
Causal forecasting methods
DEFINITION 4 Forecasting methods that are based on the assumption that the variable sea re trying to forecast exhibits a cause-effect relationship with one or more other variables TERM 5
Trend
DEFINITION 5 The gradual shift or movement of the time series to relatively higher or lower values over a long period of time
Component
Cyclical- accounts for the periodic above-trend- and below- trend behavior of the time series lasting more than one yearSeasonal- Represents the variability in the data due to seasonal influencesIrregular- represents the variability in the the time series TERM 7
Moving Averages
DEFINITION 7 A smoothing method that uses the average of the most recent ndata values in the time series as the forecast for the next period TERM 8
Mean squared error (MSE)
DEFINITION 8 An approach to measuring the accuracy of forecasting method. The measure is the average of the sum of the squared differences between the actual time series values and the forecasted values TERM 9
Weighted moving averages
DEFINITION 9 A smoothing method that uses a weighted average of the most recent n data values as the forecast TERM 10
Exponential
Smoothing
DEFINITION 10 A smoothing method that uses a weighted average of past time series values as the forecast; it is a special case of the weighted moving averages method in which we select only one weight.
