Download Evaluating Operation Assure: Reducing Robbery Rates in Ashley, Bristol and more Study notes Statistics in PDF only on Docsity!
BRISTOL ANTI-ROBBERY STRATEGY
SUMMARY
Central Bristol has had a serious robbery problem for many years culminating in 99100 with 13.6 offences per 1000 population (Home Office 'recorded crime' 16 January 2001). These robberies were concentrated in the Ashley area of the central Bristol police district.
Historically, the problem has been addressed by means of virtually every possible offender-based policing approach whether traditional or innovative. The problem has grown faster than the national average for many years suggesting these strategies have not been successful.
A new approach was called for. Use of the problem analysis triangle highlighted a possible solution: -
Victim: - analysis indicated that the majority of victims were white males, aged 17 to 30 living in the northern centre of the city
Offenders: - almost exclusively local males and repeat offenders.
Location: - An area of 500 metres square in the inner city of Bristol centred on the Stokes Croft road
The victim profile identified the largest accessible group of victims as university students. This prompted a partnership approach between the universities and the police. Investigations included examination of other approaches namely Weston Super Mare Police District and the New York Transit Authority Police Department.
A key part of the resulting strategy was the production of anti-robbery advice cards with incentive deals on the back. Work with Bristol City Council arranging new taxi ranks, service by night buses, and many other actions all formed parts of the holistic solution.
In order that longer-term strategies could be introduced in a slightly more favourable atmosphere, a massive education campaign involving universities, the media, local nightclubs, and the police was launched. The message was delivered by a number of different agencies. This culminated in a high profile Police operation during which potential victims were advised the risks their current behaviour presented.
The strategy has been evaluated many times comparing actual robbery rates, trends, views of the student body, costs, and the effect on the main profile group. As a result of the constant analysis and evaluation, a smaller version of the high profile police operation has been run on several occasions since and the large scale version is to be re-run every year in the autumn to greet the new generation of university students
The result of the strategy to date is, for the year ending March 2001 there has been an 18% reduction of street robbery in the Ashley area.
Produced by; - PC Clive Thomas 2940 Crime Reduction Officer Ashley Sector AVON AND SOMERSET CONSTABULARY
AIM
REDUCE STREET ROBBERY AND RESULTANT FEAR OF CRIME IN CENTRAL AREAS OF BRISTOL.
SCAN
Nationally robbery has been a problem for many years. The rise in recorded offences has. been a concern for consecutive Governments, the media and some police forces.
The Central Bristol District of Avon and Somerset Constabulary (ASC) is among the national top 10 areas for robbery (Home Office BCU 1998 -1999). The 1999/2000 crime statistics for ASC showed that 60% of the force's recorded street robberies occurred in Central District. These findings are supported by the Bristol Community Safety Partnership (BCCP, 1999)
Businesses particularly licensed premises, supporting the initiative, have expressed concerns at the effect robbery has on their livelihoods.
University Student Unions in Bristol have been consulted and are active participants in the initiative. Both state that risks are well known and some established students will not socialise in the area.
Bristol Drugs Project has also been involved and have expressed concerns regarding the level of offending against drug addicts, who are being further marginalized by street robbers.
Local homeless outreach workers confirmed the extent of the problem. They are aware of many unreported incidents.
A summary of current theories is as follows: 1 A large number of the victims are drug addicts 2 A large number of the offenders live in the area 3 A large number of the victims are men visiting prostitutes 4 A large number of the victims are students 5 A large number of the victims are older local residents 6 A large number of the victims are in the area for unlawful purposes. 7 The general state of disrepair in the area is contributing to the high rate of street crime.
Victim
Victim profile
Ethnicity
- The ethnicity given as white = 82%.
1991 Census shows a resident white population of 71%. This suggests that a proportion of the victims are visitors to the area.
Age (Appendix 1) The following statements can be made:
- 17 is the age at which robbery is most likely
- 17-30 years accounts for 50% of victims, with the highest concentration between 19 and 28 years
- At 40 years plus, numbers are reduced.
Age by time When age is plotted against time of day the following statements can be made.
- Crime against 17 year olds occurs constantly through 24 hours
- For ages 18 to 35, crime occurs throughout the day peaking between 2200 — 0400
- All ages over 35 are far less represented.
Sex
Victim by Postcode The significant postcodes are:
- BS2 =21% Ashley
- (^) BS6 =17% Cotham and Redland
- BS5 =11% St George and Easton
In summary
- Victims were alone or in pairs. Robbery of larger groups is rare and concentrated in the youngest age range.
- Victims were commonly under the influence of intoxicants.
- Typical victim profile could be described as a white male aged between 17 and 30 living within 4 miles of Stokes Croft to the north in the area between 2000 and 0400 on a Wednesday to Saturday (typical of a large number of white male university students).
The following statements can be made:
Time
Peak robbery time 1900 - 2000 then 2300 - 0300 Increased risk 1800 - 0400 Medium risk 1200 -1400 then 1600 - 1800 Lowest risk 0500 -
Beat Location of robberies is concentrated on the following police beat areas as evidenced in Appendix 4 :
117 Brunswick; 107 Kingsdown; 121 Montpelier 120 Ashley; 118 St Paul's;
Roads Busiest roads in terms of offences are as follows Stokes Croft 10.00% City Road 6.20% Ashley Road 5.50% Grosvenor Road 5.05%
Theory versus Fact
The hypotheses outlined in the scan section have been tested as follows.
- The "drug addict as a victim" theory is inconclusive.
- A large number of the offenders live in the local area. This appears to be substantiated.
- The prostitute theory appears unsupported, as the locations of the offences do not coincide with the areas of prostitution.
- "A large number of the victims are students" tends to be supported.
- The older locals theory is unsupported, whilst local addresses feature prominently victims over 40 do not.
- The unlawful purpose preventing reporting theory is inconclusive, however the high numbers of those robbed stated that they were offered drugs prior to the act of robbery may give credence to this theory.
- The final theory regarding the physical condition of the area cannot be addressed by this analysis.
Alternative Approaches
1 Weston-Super-Mare.
The problem was late night alcohol-related violence in the town centre. The scheme involved inexpensively produced discount cards for local shops. The cards were gender specific with anti-violence advice on the reverse. The scheme proved to be a qualified success. There was a reduction in serious acts of violence against the person. Perversely, offences of low-level violence increased.
The sponsors reported increased trade directly attributable to the campaign. A significant number of cards tendered had the advice removed.
Conclusion
The concept was successful. The message will need to be very specific and the cards will require laminating to prolong their life and prevent message removal.
2 New York Subways
The crime reduction officer for the Transit Department of the NYPD Lieutenant Wiess stated that the problem of vulnerable persons (unaware of the risks), was similar to that of the New York subways. Uniformed officers identified potential victims, who were handed a strongly worded flyer explaining their risk behaviour. Simultaneously, a covert operation took place alongside efforts to ensure imprisonment of offenders on conviction. This was followed with encouragement to property owners to maintain their property, and a period of so called Zero Tolerance policing, this cycle was repeated. New York Subways have had a falling crime rate for the last 10 years.
Conclusion
The New York model is suitable but would need to be altered significantly, to suit the British policing style legal framework, and smaller budget in both cash and personnel.
Student Bodies
The University of Bristol (UoB) Students Union agreed with the findings, and accepted that the student community is at risk of robbery, though the level of under-reporting may be high.
Police Strategy
The Central District community safety team met to discuss the best Police contribution to the initiative. The results formed the basis for the Bristol Anti Robbery Strategy as follows:
1 The message: -
Stay with people you genuinely know Avoid unlit streets or areas Avoid both residential and quiet streets Don't buy drugs at night or from strangers Go home when you leave the club Cover Jewellery and watches when walking at night in areas you don't know Get a taxi as soon as you leave the club You are at risk if you enter an area for illegal or immoral purposes Carry only cash in small "sacrifice" amounts scattered around your body Walk with a purpose; appear to know where you're going Ignore loud disturbances, they could be staged Don't be curious Carry an alarm or loud whistle
2 The document: -
Eye catching brightly coloured Obvious symbolism (a large knife or similar) Of genuine value Recognisable logos for discount or value Laminated or high quality to add credibility Small enough to be retained Large enough to be noticed Realistic in language and tone
3 The delivery: -
Widest target audience as possible At a time when it is relevant At a time when it Periodic without becoming boring Rejuvenated each year Highest profile possible Discreet to avoid embarrassment Sensitive to community feeling From a credible messenger
Partnership Actions
Following the meeting planned actions were instigated as follows.
a) Media campaign Commenced May 2000 - ongoing
- Ad Hoc free paper
- Bristol Evening Post
- Radio Bristol
- BBC Points West
- The Eagle radio station
- The Bristol Observer
- University Of Bristol (UoB) Students Union
- ASC staff
b) Personal safety lectures Commenced May 2000 - ongoing
- UoB Security Department
- UOB Students Union
- University of the West of England (UWE) Accommodations office
- ASC staff
c) Student Crime Forum Convened June 2000 - ongoing
- ASC staff from all City Districts (Chair PS Aplin)
- UOB
- UOB Security, Accommodations, Students Union
- UWE
- UWE Accommodations, Students Union
- UWE
- Bristol City Council (BCC)
d) Additional Taxi Rank provision Completed action June 2000
1. (^) BCSP
- BCC Hackney Licensing Dept
- ASC staff
e) Assistance to developers Commenced June 2000 ongoing
1. BCC
- ASC 3. BCSP (Neil Burwell)
f) Night buses Completed action August 2000
- ASC crime reduction staff
- First City Line Buses
I) Operation ASSURE (Overt - BARS card distribution)
ASSURE 2000 completed 11/10/00 - 04/11/ ASSURE 2001 completed 08/02/01 - 24/02/
1. ASC Staff,
2. ASC Special Constabulary,
3. ASC Mounted Section,
4. Neighbourhood Watches,
5. ASC Corporate Communications Office,
6. Local Licensed Premises
m) Management of CCTV Action Complete October 2000
1. BCC CCTV monitoring centre
2. ASC staff
n) Designing Out Crime Protocol
Commenced November 2000 ongoing
1. BCC
2. ASC
3. BCSP
o) Fly posting eradication Commenced December 2000 ongoing
1. BCC
2. BCC through SITA cleansing services
3. ASC
P) Dealing with Drug addicts as victims
(information given to prevent them being targeted)
Commenced December 2000 ongoing
1. Bristol Drug Project et al
2. ASC Crime Reduction staff
q) Extension of CCTV
Ongoing
1. BCC
2. ASC
r) Neighbourhood watch through new developers To be developed
1. ASC neighbourhood watch co-ordinator
2. ASC staff
3. Various Developers
ASSESSMENT / EVALUATION
The media campaign and the personal safety lectures delivered in May 2000 would appear to have had a positive impact on the Ashley sector robbery figures, compared with the same period the previous year (Figure 4).
Figure 4
May June July Aug 99/00 28 (^48 59) 52 00/01 35 43 33 42
In June, July and August there were no operations running in the sector, so there is little reason for the decrease in robbery, apart from the campaign work.
It is difficult at this stage to evaluate the success of the taxi rank and night buses, except to say that the strategic positioning of the pick-up points will help to eradicate the problem due to the availability of public transport.
Communication of the robbery problem has increased significantly across the Ashley sector and beyond, due to the geographic nature of student accommodation. Although it is difficult to measure the success of the Internet pages and the take-up of the flyers, it is safe to say that the message is getting through, evidenced through several hundred hyper-link hits in the first few weeks.
Operation Assure was the most resource intensive part of the robbery campaign and utilised a number of the previously mentioned actions in its strategy. What follows is a comprehensive evaluation of the operation's activities:
Operation Assure
Total crime for Central district during the six-week period prior to 'Assure' was 2870 incidents, of which robbery accounted for 7.5%. Total crime for the district during Operation Assure was 2712 incidents of which robbery accounted for 6.5%.
Operation Assure Part I (Covert)
In the first phase of 'Assure' officers from the DCU, VCU and Ashley Beat Team worked together over an 8-night period to form a team of 1 PS and 8 PC's. They were tasked with conducting observations and targeted stop-checks in the Stokes Croft area.
Sixteen arrests were made for a variety of offences including robbery, possession of drugs with intent to supply, possession of offensive weapon, drink driving and warrants.
The resulting intelligence highlighted 4 names in particular, leading to one individual receiving a curfew between 2000 and 0700.
Costing
The total cost of Operation Assure equates to approximately £24,063. A recent home office study on the economic cost of crime priced the average robbery at £4600. The consequence of the crime to the victim and society accounts for £2800 while the remaining £1800 represents costs to the criminal justice response including police activity.
Therefore, the 36 robberies `saved' in Ashley sector through Operation Assure resulted in a net benefit to society of £165,600. Obviously offset by the cost of the operation of £24,063 this results in a saving of £141,537, indicating that the £24,063 investment has paid for itself more than six times over.
The cost of robbery for only the criminal justice response, the operation would have saved £64,800 - £24,063 = £40,737 proving the investment to have paid for itself nearly three times over.
Six weeks on
Figure 10 below shows the period-on-period increases and decreases over the 18-week period of analysis. In the six week period following Operation Assure, robberies decreased by a further 51 crimes or 28% resulting in a total decrease of 89 crimes or 41%.
Figure 7
Sector
Robberies in six week period prior to Operation Assure
Robberies in six week period of Operation Assure (% change)
Robberies in six week period following Operation Assure (% change on Op Assure)
% change in robberies following Assure with robberies prior to Assure Ashley 59 43 (-27%)^ 33 (-24%)^ -44%
Cabot 56 32 (43%) 32 (0%) -43%
Lawrence Hill
Bristol East
Total 216 178 (-17%) 127 (-28%) -41 %
Each sector has experienced a substantial decrease in robberies over the 18- week period. The decrease in Ashley, Cabot and parts of Lawrence Hill sectors can be attributed to Operation Assure as they were within or adjacent to, the areas of crime prevention activity.
Figure 8 below identifies the specific beats of activity and the change in number of robberies since the completion of Operation Assure.
Figure 8
Beat Robberies in six week period prior to Operation Assure
Robberies in six week period of Operation Assure ( % change)
Robberies in six week period following Operation Assure ( % change on Op Assure)
% change in robberies following Assure with robberies prior to Assure
AS 107 8 2 (-75%) 5 (+150%) (^) -37% AS117 (^16) 6 (-62%) 8 (+33%) -50% AS108 5 2 (-60%) 2 (0%) (^) -60% AS118 9 4 (-55%) (^) 2 (-50%) -77% AS119 3 2 (-33%) (^1) (-50%) -66% AS120 1 6 (+500%) 2 (-66%) +100% AC109 7 5 (-28%) 1 (-80%) (^) -86% AC110 6 0 (-100%) (^) 2 (+100%) -66% AC111 (^2) 0 (-100%) 1 (+100%) (^) -50% AC112 (^2) _4 (+100%) 1 (-75%) -50% AC114 3 1 (-66%) 1 (0%) (^) -66% Total 62 32 (-48%) 26 (-19%) (^) -58%
From the above findings, it is clear that although the target beats of AS107 and AS117 have experienced an increase in robbery in the six weeks since the Operation, they are still considerably lower than before the operation began, a combined decrease of 11 robberies or 46%.
Despite no repeat victims during the operation, in the six weeks following the operation there were three repeat victims - two 18-30 white males (students) and an unemployed white female aged 37. All lived within the Ashley sector boundaries.
The figures indicate that Operation Assure had its biggest impact in the six weeks during the campaign. However, there has been a further decrease in robberies in the following weeks by 19%, but in order to see if this is down to Assure or just a seasonal trend it was necessary to compare statistics with the same period in 199912000. These have been produced in Figure 9 over:
