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Department of Economics University of California, Berkeley
Field Examination in Economic Demography
Monday, 12 January 2009, 9:00 A.M. to Noon
Please answer all parts of all questions. The four questions count equally, and all parts count equally except as indicated in Question 4. Cite the literature where appropriate.
This is a closed-book examination. You should not consult any books or notes during the examination, but you may use your hand calculator. Please start your answer to each of the four questions on a new page. For the question on demographic methods, show your work and label you answers clearly. Answers with decimals should be given with six figures beyond the decimal point.
- Consider economic influences on marriage behavior and fertility.
a) Briefly explain the concept of the gains to marriage, originally developed by Becker. Falling mortality in Third World countries led to rapid population growth in recent decades. Drawing on Becker’s theory and class discussion, how might this have affected the division of the gain to marriage between males and females? (Think of the sex ratio in the marriage market.)
b) Briefly explain in words the role of the value of female time in the eco- nomic theory of fertility; no equations or diagrams are necessary.
c) Now consider the effect on both marriage behavior and fertility of a reduction in discrimination against women in the labor force, drawing on the relevant theories you have sketched above.
- It is often difficult to disentangle cause and effect for events unfolding over the course of the life cycle.
a) Why is it difficult to establish the effect on health of income or wealth?
b) Given the usual kinds of data, are there some parts of the life cycle where we can be more confident in interpreting associations as causal than in other parts? Explain. (This question refers specifically to part a) above.)
c) Can you think of particular situations that might help you identify a causal effect of income on health? What kind of situation do you need, generally speaking?
d) Why is it difficult to establish an effect of adolescent childbearing on subsequent income and educational attainment of the mother? Is this reason the same or different than the reason for income and health as queried in a)? Explain.
e) Briefly describe and explain the strategies used to estimate the effect of adolescent childbearing on subsequent outcomes for the mother. (If you have already answered this earlier, just give a cross-reference here; no need to repeat.)
f) Could a similar strategy be of any use in the context of the health and income problem? Why or why not?
- The following Leslie Matrix for projecting counts of women in India has been derived from information in the United Nations World Population Prospects, 2006. To shorten calculations, the width of age groups has been set at n = 15 years.
The size of the population of India is expected to overtake the population of China in the next few decades. Some of India’s more rapid increase is due to higher fertility rates and some is due to age structure. Table 1 shows counts by age for 2005 for Indian women, for Chinese women, and for a stable population based on the Leslie Matrix for India. Assume that survival beyond age 90 can be neglected in our calculations.
A =
- In empirical studies, it is often found that local labor markets with higher proportions of foreign born also have higher wages. Tthe weights of parts in the total of 25 points for this question are shown in parentheses.
a) (4) How would you interpret the result or association described above in terms of causality?
b) (4) What should we take to be the treatment here, of which we are trying to assess the effect? What is the counterfactual? (Math expressions are not needed here, but feel free to use them if you prefer.)
c) (7) What strategies might you suggest for obtaining a better estimate of the effect of the treatment? Draw on the methods that have been used in the literature we read (the readings by Card and Borjas, as well as any other studies discussed in class).
d) (5) What results have been found when these strategies have been pur- sued?
e) (5) Are there additional problems with this approach (comparing out- comes across local labor markets) that do not fit so cleanly into the causality framework discussed by Moffitt? Discuss.
End of Examination
