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Analysis of Tripos Results
Abstract This is a study of results from the Maths tripos since 2002, using them to predict exam results in 3rd and 4th year based on those from previous years. We also compare the performances of students from the different colleges.
Introduction
The data is obtained from the class lists in the Cambridge University Reporter, published by CUP and available in the University Libraray. It covers all exams up to 2010 sat by students matriculating from 2001 onwards, so 27 sets of 1st-3rd year exams.
Predictions
1st 2nd 3rd Year Year Year 1 2.1 2.2 3 all. Total 1 1 305 79 3 387 2.1 38 86 18 2 1 145 2.2 2 1 6 1 10 2.1 1 79 59 1 139 2.1 74 243 85 3 1 406 2.2 6 56 61 14 3 140 3 6 3 1 10 2.2 1 1 2 3 2.1 10 68 24 3 1 106 2.2 1 49 68 13 5 136 3 3 18 13 8 42 3 2.1 7 4 11 2.2 10 18 8 4 40 3 15 7 4 26 Total 516 663 327 66 29 1601
Table 1: Prediction of 3rd year results from first two years
Note: ’all.’ = granted an allowance towards an ordinary degree.
1st 2nd 3rd 4th Year Year Year Year Distinction Merit Pass Total 1 1 1 155 30 16 201 2.1 14 10 16 40 2.2 2 2 2.1 1 8 10 9 27 2.1 10 12 15 37 2.2 1 1 2 2.1 1 1 27 11 5 43 2.1 9 8 10 27 2.2 1 1 2.1 1 13 12 8 33 2.1 9 21 36 66 2.2 1 1 5 7 2.2 1 2 2 4 2.1 2 2 7 11 2.2 1 2.1 1 1 2.1 1 1 1 2 4 2.1 5 1 4 10 2.2 3 3 2.2 2.1 1 5 6 3 2.1 1 1 2 3 2.1 2.1 1 1 2.2 2.1 2 2 2.2 2 2 Total 257 123 152 532
Table 2: Prediction of 4th year results from first three years
Colleges
We now compare the number of each degree class obtained by each college; in first, second and third year exams. To facilitate comparison we assign points to each class as follows: 5 for a 1st, 3 for a 2.1, 2 for a 2.2, and 1 for a 3rd or allowance. Other results (“satisfied the examiners”, “declared to have deserved honours”) are ignored; they are in any case rare. Colleges with very small numbers of maths students (Homerton, Hughes Hall, Lucy Cavendish, St Edmund’s & Wolfson) have been omitted.
Figure 2: Tripos score against typical annual intake; old colleges in blue, new ones in green; Trinity omitted
Figure 3: Tripos score against cohort for each college
If we modify the scoring system to give only 4 points for a 1st (still 3 for a 2.1, 2 for a 2. and 1 for a 3rd or allowance) we obtain the following results across the university:
Matric 1st 2nd 3rd Year Year Year Year Total 2001 2.93 2.93 3.02 2. 2002 2.89 2.94 2.98 2. 2003 2.97 2.93 2.99 2. 2004 2.93 2.95 3.00 2. 2005 3.04 3.00 2.97 3. 2006 2.92 3.00 2.97 2. 2007 2.92 2.96 3.02 2. 2008 2.88 2.97 3.02 2. 2009 2.94 2.96 2. 2010 2.96 2. Grand Total 2.94 2.96 3.00 2.
Table 5: Results by exam and cohort; all colleges
These figures are consistently very close to 3, especially for 3rd year exams, which suggests that they may be deliberately scaled in this way.
