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BIOS760 Final Exam, Fall 2007: Statistical Inference and Estimation - Prof. Michae Kosorok, Exams of Probability and Statistics

The final exam questions for a statistics course, bios760, taken in the fall of 2007. The exam covers topics such as maximum likelihood estimation, complete and sufficient statistics, and the em algorithm. Students are required to find estimators, derive distributions, and apply statistical inequalities.

Typology: Exams

Pre 2010

Uploaded on 03/10/2009

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BIOS760 Final Exam, Fall 2007
1. Suppose that we observe nindependent pairs (Yi, Xi), where
Xi=1
2log i+Ui, Yi=β+eXi²i
with Ui, i = 1, ..., n i.i.d from Uniform(0,1), ²i, i = 1, ..., n from N(0,1), and Uiindependent of ²i.
By noting
YieXi=βeXi+²i,
we can obtain an alternative least-square estimator for βgiven as
ˆ
β=Pn
i=1 Yie2Xi
Pn
i=1 e2Xi.
(a) (5 points) Write down the observed likelihood function for β.
(b) (5 points) What is the Cramer-Rao lower bound for β?
We want to derive the asymptotic distribution for ˆ
βafter a proper normalization. Particulary,
we take the following steps.
(c) (5 points) Derive the asymptotic distribution of Pn
i=1 i1/2eUi²i,after a proper normaliza-
tion;
(d) (5 points) Show
Pn
i=1 i1e2Ui
(1 e2)/2Pn
i=1 i1p1;
(e) (5 points) Obtain the asymptotic distribution for ˆ
βafter a proper normalization.
2. Suppose X1, ..., Xnare i.i.d from density
f(x) = I(xθ) exp{−(xθ)}.
(a) (5 points) Find a complete and sufficient statistic for θ.
(b) (5 points) Derive the UMVUE for θand denote it as ˆ
θ1.
(c) (5 points) Find the maximum likelihood estimate for θand denote it as ˆ
θ2.
(d) (5 points) Calculate the variance of ˆ
θ2and show that ˆ
θ2is consistent using the Chebyshev’s
inequality.
(e) (5 points) Find some constant ansuch that an(ˆ
θ2θ0) converges in distribution to a non-
degenerate distribution. Identify the limiting distribution. Here, θ0is the true value for
θ.
(f) (5 points) Find some constant bnsuch that bn(ˆ
θ1θ0) converges in distribution to a non-
degenerate distribution. Identify the limiting distribution.
3. Let Z1, ..., Znbe the measurements of body mass index (BMI) and X1,..., Xnbe the daily fat
intake from nindependent adults. Assume
Zi=β0+β1Xi+²i,
where ²ifollows distribution N(0, σ2) and is independent of Xi. Assume Xihas a known density
g(x). In a real study, we observe X1, ..., Xnbut instead of Zi, only the categories of BMI are
observed: such categories are defined as
Yi=(normal, Zi<25,
overweight,25 Zi.
Therefore, the observed data are (Y1, X1), ..., (Yn, Xn). We may code Yi= 0 for “normal” category
and Yi= 1 for “overweight” category.
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BIOS760 Final Exam, Fall 2007

  1. Suppose that we observe n independent pairs (Yi, Xi), where

X

i

log i + U i

, Y

i

= β + e

Xi ≤ i

with U i

, i = 1, ..., n i.i.d from Uniform(0,1), ≤ i

, i = 1, ..., n from N (0, 1), and U i

independent of ≤ i

By noting

Y

i

e

−Xi = βe

−Xi

  • ≤ i

we can obtain an alternative least-square estimator for β given as

β =

∑ n

i=

Y

i

e

− 2 Xi

∑ n

i=

e

− 2 Xi

(a) (5 points) Write down the observed likelihood function for β.

(b) (5 points) What is the Cramer-Rao lower bound for β?

We want to derive the asymptotic distribution for

β after a proper normalization. Particulary,

we take the following steps.

(c) (5 points) Derive the asymptotic distribution of

∑ n

i=

i

− 1 / 2 e

−Ui ≤i, after a proper normaliza-

tion;

(d) (5 points) Show

∑ n

i=

i

− 1 e

− 2 Ui

(1 − e

− 2 )/ 2

∑ n

i=

i

− 1

p

(e) (5 points) Obtain the asymptotic distribution for

β after a proper normalization.

  1. Suppose X 1

, ..., X

n

are i.i.d from density

f (x) = I(x ≥ θ) exp{−(x − θ)}.

(a) (5 points) Find a complete and sufficient statistic for θ.

(b) (5 points) Derive the UMVUE for θ and denote it as

θ 1

(c) (5 points) Find the maximum likelihood estimate for θ and denote it as

θ 2

(d) (5 points) Calculate the variance of

θ 2 and show that

θ 2 is consistent using the Chebyshev’s

inequality.

(e) (5 points) Find some constant an such that an(

θ 2 − θ 0 ) converges in distribution to a non-

degenerate distribution. Identify the limiting distribution. Here, θ 0

is the true value for

θ.

(f) (5 points) Find some constant b n

such that b n

θ 1

− θ 0

) converges in distribution to a non-

degenerate distribution. Identify the limiting distribution.

  1. Let Z 1 , ..., Zn be the measurements of body mass index (BMI) and X 1 ,..., Xn be the daily fat

intake from n independent adults. Assume

Z

i

= β 0

  • β 1

X

i

i

where ≤ i

follows distribution N (0, σ

2 ) and is independent of X i

. Assume X i

has a known density

g(x). In a real study, we observe X 1

, ..., X

n

but instead of Z i

, only the categories of BMI are

observed: such categories are defined as

Y

i

{

normal, Z i

overweight, 25 ≤ Zi.

Therefore, the observed data are (Y 1 , X 1 ), ..., (Yn, Xn). We may code Yi = 0 for “normal” category

and Y i

= 1 for “overweight” category.

(a) (5 points) Write down the observed likelihood function.

(b) (5 points) Write down the likelihood function of the complete data.

(c) (15 points) We want to use the EM algorithm to calculate the maximum likelihood estimates

for β 0 , β 1 and σ

2

. Give the explicit calculations in both E-step and M-step. In the expressions,

you may use Φ(x) and φ(x) to denote the respective cumulative distribution function and

density function of standard normal distribution.